{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"goldsmith_doing_well":{"description_shown":"The dataset combines multinational survey data on public opinion with country-level information on aid flows, health indicators, governance, and economic conditions. Public opinion measures come from the Gallup World Poll (GWP), an annual global survey launched in 2006 that samples individuals aged 15 and older. In countries with high telephone penetration (over 80%), data are collected through Random-Digit-Dial (RDD) telephone interviews; elsewhere, surveys are conducted face-to-face. Each survey includes about 1,000 respondents per country per year. Aid-related data include figures from the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), one of the largest U.S. bilateral health initiatives, launched in 2003 and first disbursed in 2004, aimed at combating HIV/AIDS in dozens of countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. The dataset also incorporates U.S. Official Development Assistance (ODA) compiled from international aid databases. Additional country-level indicators are drawn from international sources: population and economic statistics from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI), health data from UNAIDS and global monitoring agencies, governance measures from the World Bank Governance Indicators, civil liberties scores from Freedom House, UN General Assembly voting data, and trade flows from the U.S. Department of Commerce.\n\nData variables:\ncountry: Country name\nccode: Numeric country code\ny_us: Net approval of the U.S. (log(%approve) - log(%disapprove))\ny_ch: Net approval of China\ny_fr: Net approval of France\ny_ge: Net approval of Germany\ny_in: Net approval of India\ny_ja: Net approval of Japan\ny_ru: Net approval of Russia\ny_uk: Net approval of the U.K.\ny_ownc: Net approval of respondent's own country\nx: PEPFAR funds per capita (log)\nx_imputed: PEPFAR funds per capita (log, imputed)\nz_ratio: HIV prevalence rate (log)\nz_death: HIV-related deaths per capita (log)\nusaid: U.S. ODA per capita (log)\nusaid_imputed: U.S. ODA per capita (log, imputed)\ngdppc: GDP per capita (log)\nwbgi: World Bank governance indicator\nfhscore: Freedom House civil liberties score\nafrica: 1 if African country, 0 otherwise\ntrade_i: Imports to the U.S. (log)\ntrade_e: Exports to the U.S. (log)\nunvote_key: UN voting alignment with the U.S.","file_sha256":"e45a2c15808d35983e45405dd1eb70737617764feccf2852c6c51ba329b094dc","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Does PEPFAR funding increase approval of U.S. leadership?","question_sha256":"cafdbb3476b2ae253557a614a7a2a5ed530736ab9c22f385e41535f021eb5770","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q069","task_sha256":"60eed1848fd8bc1a75dd18b765a5987d4dad10fcbb213eedc93f2fb38ffc2c91","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.758053Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_1d965e72","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["3ae488df7c02b554dfe0c81d560e99195bfcbbce3742c0cdfff4d9a48a9c41a4"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"d8b4542074b9c99db1e9a43587fdebf1de02f5b84eeedf75b5d92bc63fb3b024","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q069","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.758053Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_fe100295","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q069","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.760176Z","turn_id":"call_1d965e72","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q069","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.760280Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q069","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.760280Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.202,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q069","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q069","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:23.760280Z"}