{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"rickard_incumbents":{"description_shown":"The dataset tracks municipalities in Spain across multiple election cycles to study the effect of local offshoring events on incumbent vote shares. Offshoring events were identified using corporate balance sheet databases, prior academic compilations, media reports, and public restructuring monitors. Each event was verified through at least two independent sources to ensure accuracy. For every confirmed event, the exact plant location and the number of jobs lost were recorded. These events were then matched with municipality-level election results to capture changes in incumbent party vote shares across elections. Additional contextual variables, such as population, unemployment, and economic growth, were obtained from official regional statistical agencies.\n\nData variables:\ncodi: Municipality code\nyear: Election year\nspp: Incumbent party vote share (%)\npostp: Post-treatment period indicator\ntreatment_postp: Treatment _ Post period indicator\nintensity_postp: Number of jobs lost due to offshoring\npop_thou: Population in thousands\nurate: Local unemployment rate (%)\nyrrate: Local economic growth rate (%)","file_sha256":"0746afc96c5d923f64d1274eef4643ebc91c4f02dfd9a91d4782fa220e709f22","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Does experiencing an offshoring event cause a reduction in the incumbent government party's (PP) vote share in Catalan municipalities between the 2000 and 2004 elections?","question_sha256":"e08936a519a00ff7d08a9c124fd4c52abcbdae7c5219c2d917f053a4c9644954","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q083","task_sha256":"655733edbe3a6c5d38f73e3c48e3698a8a02d7ada422af4495928e0ece567661","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.002284Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_6faf1e1e","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["1877bc1bb0b0f5997011f8f003e73189cf5cbbec6cf03d6df61c11869771d5b9"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"01e2c24d24cb59c42314fea4b54bfecf8f71e571bfe15dc7322a77d82b8c023c","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q083","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.002284Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_debefe47","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q083","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.004237Z","turn_id":"call_6faf1e1e","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q083","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.004336Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q083","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.004336Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-1.947,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q083","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q083","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.004336Z"}