{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"panagopolous_field_experiments":{"description_shown":"The dataset consists of 49 observations from mayoral elections in U.S. cities, with 33 observations from 2005 and 16 from 2006. The data is gathered through a randomized field experiment. Within matched pairs of municipalities, one city was randomly assigned to the treatment group and the other to the control group. The treatment involved a 60-second, non-partisan get-out-the-vote radio advertisement. The control group received no such intervention. The unit of observation is the city. Inclusion was limited to cities with populations over 30,000 where an incumbent mayor ran for reelection against an opponent. The study's outcome measure is the change in the incumbent mayor's vote share compared to the previous election.\n\nVariables:\nState: State\nCity: City\nContested_2006: Mayoral election contested\nTo_Prev: Turnout in prior mayoral election\nPartisan: Partisan ballot\nInc_Voteshare_Prev: Incumbent vote percentage in prior mayoral election\nInc_Running_2006: Incumbent running in mayoral election\nGrp_Buy: Gross Ratings Points purchased (measure of advertising intensity)\nStatewide_2005: Statewide election\nStrata90: Low Cost-per-point stratum\nStrata70: Moderate Cost-per-point stratum\nVotesharechange: Change in incumbent vote percentage since prior mayoral election\nVotesharediff: Margin of victory\nYear_Exp: Experiment year","file_sha256":"4752df417db23bf5ef74fdf35be37e544f94fd7b8c6eb3769e309feea61b4e65","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What was the effect of the radio advertising campaign on the change in the incumbent mayor's vote share in the 2006 elections?","question_sha256":"f567f41171619f03aa44d02dbed8353c97c3054cb46c55c7ea06d26816754ed9","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q105","task_sha256":"c9d8d3e7c0770bbbb4a26acdb147e9a4eb17e32efe24ed6b015b9b6d64dfde69","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.394760Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_8429e2e2","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["b434ab19b8fccba0b66986cb1cf80efd457493b420db84d1de699dc71575ddb7"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"2cac10fe8252946e82e257c5018a9180e73a79865d0f28b9af8911e8e81ac3c7","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.394760Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_c56ab9dc","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.397061Z","turn_id":"call_8429e2e2","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.397177Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.397177Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-0.112,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q105","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q105","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.397177Z"}