{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"newman_global_costs":{"description_shown":"The study examines the global economic costs of extreme weather events attributable to climate change using Event Attribution methodology. It analyzes 185 extreme weather events from 2000-2019 across multiple countries, combining data from climate attribution studies with socio-economic impact data from the Emergency Management Database (EM-DAT). The methodology uses climate models to compare observed extreme weather events with counterfactual scenarios without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This generates Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) estimates quantifying what portion of each event's risk is attributable to human-induced climate change. These FAR values are then applied to observed mortality and economic damages to calculate climate change-attributable costs globally.\n\nVariable description:\n- Event Identifier: Identifies the specific extreme weather event\n- Year: Year of event\n- Country/region: Country of event\n- Continent: Continent where event happened\n- Disaster Type: One of Flood, Heatwave, Wildfire, Drought, Storm, Cold wave\n- FAR Best Estimate: FAR value = 1 - p_1/p_0, where p_1 is the probability of event in the real world, and p_0 in counterfactual world without climate change.\n- Total Deaths: Total number of deaths caused by event\n- Total Affected\n- Total Damage (US$ Thousands): Amount of damage caused in thousands of US dollars per event\n- Insured Loss (US$ Thousands): Amount of economic damage insured\n- Uninsured damages: Difference of previous two\n- Total Damage (US$ Millions): Amount of damage caused in millions of US dollars per event\n- Insured Loss (US$ Millions): Amount of economic damage insured (in millions)","file_sha256":"b5566c38a3ac6ecba6cc014aea2af8aaa376b6fed658c546a704080cb4a8240d","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"How much of global total economic damages due to extreme weather is attributable to climate change? (in thousands)","question_sha256":"e5e64018ed34b1a72f867ad63657d7d3293080423450343a3a15588a47b053a8","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q116","task_sha256":"bb2c4a0561e8208d68276193bd0798b46543bcd0d990237a60f93596f6edeb00","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.546432Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_26a57ba4","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["52c6b607ec13618b0af057f548ec9aabe349bfaa4bf719dfffee406035acf8af"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"1b50e0c1972f1e29dac18bf4ff5c2d8cc3f72e550fb050517e95a73dcda6083b","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.546432Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_159edf72","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":[],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":2,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.548562Z","turn_id":"call_26a57ba4","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.548660Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.548660Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":-1413836.076,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q116","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q116","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:24.548660Z"}