{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"cirone_cabinets":{"description_shown":"The dataset comes from French parliamentary records across multiple legislative sessions. It is structured by deputy-year, and includes variables for legislative behavior, career success, policy-making, tenure, and constituent characteristics. An interesting feature of the lower house was that the legislature was randomly assigned into 11 groups called bureaux, and each group chose members to serve on the budget committee. The deputies convened with their assigned group, and after hours of discussion, each bureau nominated three representatives to serve on the budget committee. Bureaux was a temporary committee, and the selection was done every year. This random selection of bureaux (or bureau) for budget selection was done from 1894 to 1910, after which it was disbanded.\n\nVariable description:\nid: ID number (Unique identifier for each deputy)\nyear: Year (1894-1909)\nterm: Term (1893, 1898, 1902, or 1906)\nleader: Deputy was any type of party leader (defined as a member of a parliamentary governing committee) (1 = yes, 0 = no)\ncentrist_all: Deputy was a member of a Radical or Radical-Socialist party (1 = Radical socialist, 0 = radical party)\ninscrits: Number of electors in deputy's district (in 000s)\npermargin: Electoral margin of prior election, as a ratio of total votes cast\nparis: Whether the deputy represents a Parisian district or suburb (1 = Parisian district, 0 = suburb)\nage: Age of deputy\nbureau: Deputy's bureau number (assignment) for that year\nbudget: Deputy was on the budget committee (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nmin: Deputy was a minister (1 = yes, 0 = no)\ntermyear: Identifier for term + year\nbudgettermyears: Number of years a deputy has served on the budget committee, including the current year\nbudgetexptermyears: Budget experience in years\nproprietaire: Deputy was a property owner (upper class) (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nlib_all: Deputy held a liberal profession (middle class) (1 = yes, 0 = no)\ncivil: Deputy was a civil servant (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nreelect: Deputy was reelected the next term (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5firstminyear: Became a minister for the first time within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5firstleaderyear: Became a party leader within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\ncummyears: Years of parliamentary experience\nclburyear: Identifier for term year + bureau\nbudgetincumbent: Deputy was a budget incumbent (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nbureauotherbudgetincumbent: Number of budget incumbents in deputy's bureau (excluding deputy)\nreelectterm: Deputy was reelected the next term (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nreelecttwoterm: Deputy was reelected within the next two terms (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nsenate: Deputy was a senator (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nrannext: Deputy ran for reelection in the subsequent term (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5senateyear: Became a senator within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5billdummy: Sponsored a bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5billfinancedummy: Sponsored a finance bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5billecondummy: Sponsored an econ bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5billwelfaredummy: Sponsored a welfare bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5billbudgetdummy: Sponsored a budget bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5billagendadummy: Sponsored an agenda bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5billinterpdummy: Sponsored an interpellation bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5cosponsordummy: Cosponsored a budget bill within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nF1to5cosponsordummy_anybm: Co-sponsored with current or previous budget committee member within 5 years (1 = yes, 0 = no)\ncummyears2: Years of parliamentary experience squared\nage2: Age, squared\ninscrits2: Electors, squared\npermargin2: Electoral Margin of Prior Election, squared\ndeptcode: Department ID","file_sha256":"667bb93d31b83716ba58ff8d36588e0dd813470a04931c6359a8ee1b00d3d4f0","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of being appointed to the budget committee on the probability a deputy sponsors a budget amendment within the next five years?","question_sha256":"989973a93f63b238221a20a76ce64d6ca5b99674489a9d1b43152e769c58d0ce","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q151","task_sha256":"a3f4d3138789ec746a7ec779a8e674f5683be51758d207adf595ec51ca9bc270","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:25.966389Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_e0946ec6","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["21dd579fa3a24194f6b600c2ec33cfac11323086adcaaabca052fd7f860eaa1d"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"6dff01f760ef3b39a7758a7bb93ccd8ff711f9b84865ceacc132c74924f2a2de","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q151","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:25.966389Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
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{"answer":"Pelas regras deste roteador n\u00e3o identifiquei um desenho que responda \u00e0 pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q151","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:25.969118Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q151","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:25.969118Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.634,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q151","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171122Z-suite-causcibench_real-baseline-4f971b","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q151","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:25.969118Z"}