{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"cunningham_the_long_run":{"description_shown":"This data examines the effect of abortion legalization on the incidence of gonorrhea among 15-19-year-old females. The core idea is based on a quasi-experiment comparing early repeal states with Roe states. Early repeal states are those that repealed their abortion ban before the Roe v. Wade decision in 1973. Roe states are the states where abortion was legalized after Roe v. Wade.\n\nVariable Information:\n\nfip: State FIPS code\nage: Age in years\nrace: Race (1 = White, 2 = Black)\nyear: Calendar year\nt: Year, but counted on a different scale\nsex: Sex (1 = Male, 2 = Female)\ntotpop: Total population\nir: Incarcerated males per 100,000\ncrack: Crack index\nalcohol: Alcohol consumption per capita\nincome: Real income per capita\nur: State unemployment rate\npoverty: Poverty rate\nrepeal: In a state with an early repeal of abortion prohibition\nacc: AIDS mortality per 100,000 (cumulative in years t, t-1, t-2, t-3)\nwht: Indicator for White\nmale: Indicator for Male\nlnr: Logged gonorrhea cases per 100,000 in 15-19 year olds\nyounger: Indicator for being in the younger group\nfa: State-younger interaction\npi: Parental involvement law in effect\nbf15: Indicator for Black females in the 15-19 age group","file_sha256":"358683c6249459cb0e9bc1c562964a1ac7706ccc7e3da32cf795c42e6f48a5d6","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Did abortion legalization before Roe v. Wade reduce gonorrhea rates among Black male teenagers in early-repeal states compared to other states?","question_sha256":"b3f6780f13c881d6bdd0ef5a8e2549a7da80b19ff771c486349e66bbd6bd2d8a","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q012","task_sha256":"642d7913b833fee16bbaed9c62ad8354ec89b9de7354a58c46c378bbbc30c4ce","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:42.940714Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_78c71b9c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["8ed6a8341754d8b67d607925565dcdc6742f70fc3fd0ba4a065a255e45e9ef9a"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"e74ab188f705f0f21ca4aaa718081061cef77b26f616f8f54cb790cdcbbb8de2","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"cunningham_the_long_run","x":["repeal"],"y":"lnr"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q012","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:42.940714Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"cunningham_the_long_run","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["repeal"],"y":"lnr"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_73602d15","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"cunningham_the_long_run":"5d456a9ce8f85c086d28b6a8ca3b08047cbd7e0fd59c3fa3f6cc327fbac96668"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":17.12666591629386,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"0fcd8e1c8abf350caac568b031cc23cd655e1f71d3051a4ea112136aac2a7411","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"3cf0f8f7db44f19ab4f2134552f698671cabdf029428be1ff13cb400c8bed27f","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_73602d15","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":1492},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.08372588010557391},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":1490},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":-0.6346263325493697,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-0.9142864239708923,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":-0.774456378260131,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":1492.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de repeal na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de lnr.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.07128521795001623,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.005081582298181316}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":-0.774456378260131},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9615573849940025},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.07128521795001623}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 1490 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.repeal","label":"Coefficient on repeal in the regression of lnr","se":0.07128521795001623,"unit":"","value":-0.774456378260131}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":8.039659061568868,"ci_low":7.9555448647627145,"coef":7.997601963165791,"p":0.0,"se":0.021440666852173242,"t":373.01087780089955,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":-0.6346263325493697,"ci_low":-0.9142864239708923,"coef":-0.774456378260131,"p":1.6342360718723929e-26,"se":0.07128521795001623,"t":-10.864193174006488,"term":"repeal"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"de3c5729930da832e35cf06208c35517342f5646c8031601e433390113296e0c","result_sha256":"3950ccceff989e47f022f63909e0cb4f8c96f26118929ef3e691285b55e2d1b9","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q012","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:42.944159Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_78c71b9c"}
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