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{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"manacorda_gov_transfers","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["participation"],"y":"support"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_6f766c74","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"manacorda_gov_transfers":"545db619c654ede637c18214cd75e71504b965d091a1f70f0af6dee6e4ec7827"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":17.980791861191392,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"fbd678a9545cd5a480fea43c012d13178ec612793ede4fea05e5f847a920c98c","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"b08d5a719593372851f9642df66356c3c44d55b9e0797d13e863966a2f17f4c6","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_6f766c74","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":1948},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.033715944281967},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":1946},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.14730553196827195,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.08925537423501856,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.11828045310164526,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":1948.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de participation na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de support.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.014799775094998522,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.00021903334286253853}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.11828045310164526},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9611837801802485},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.014799775094998522}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 1946 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.participation","label":"Coefficient on participation in the regression of support","se":0.014799775094998522,"unit":"","value":0.11828045310164526}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.751540033120025,"ci_low":0.7040019888044573,"coef":0.7277710109622412,"p":0.0,"se":0.012119732172983459,"t":60.04844006244151,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.14730553196827195,"ci_low":0.08925537423501856,"coef":0.11828045310164526,"p":2.252468500729433e-15,"se":0.014799775094998522,"t":7.992043956236692,"term":"participation"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"792b06b0609d6e8b32cb4ad1c715337d5cb2dc46e4ce7991f33ec99b7f05069d","result_sha256":"7f6c22d644ccf6efadffa6de7f9d68c441531f58a815490cad56521657bade66","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q019","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:43.115910Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_ac1704d9"}
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