{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"panagopoulos_timing":{"description_shown":"The dataset consists of 25,000 registered voters in Rochester, New York, who were part of a randomized field experiment during the November 2005 municipal elections. Voters were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a phone reminder call scheduled for 4 weeks before Election Day, 2 weeks before, 3 days before, or a control group that received no call. The calls were nonpartisan get-out-the-vote reminders, delivered using standardized scripts. The unit of observation is the individual registered voter, and only those appearing on the official registration list were included. The main outcome is voter turnout in the 2005 election, while additional measures capture past voting history, party registration, demographics, and a predicted propensity to vote. The dataset also records whether each assigned reminder call was actually completed, allowing for comparison between group assignment and the reality of who was contacted.\n\nData variables:\nvtr_gen01: Voted (2001)\nvtr_gen03: Voted (2003)\nvtr_gen05: Outcome: Voted 2005\ntreated: Successfully contacted\nfour_weeks: Experimental group: Called 4 weeks before election\ntwo_weeks: Experimental group: Called 2 weeks before election\nthree_days: Experimental group: Called 3 days before election\ncontrol: Experimental group: Control, i.e., did not receive any calls\ndemocrat: Registered Democrat\nrepublican: Registered Republican\nunenrolled: Unaffiliated\nother_party: Other party registration\nage: Age (years)\nage_squared: Age squared\ncontacted_4weeks: Successfully contacted: 4 weeks\ncontacted_2weeks: Successfully contacted: 2 weeks\ncontacted_3days: Successfully contacted: 3 days\nvote_prop: Predicted vote propensity\nuse: Subject included\nid: Subject ID","file_sha256":"37ac4466ad26ac40012073e833298d7e3f2f8e8fbe8eb1fa90268ec2e1181ad7","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of receiving a get-out-the-vote phone call three days prior to the election on voter turnout?","question_sha256":"0100eaddc937c965c912e21aa5fe3bcd634b59684555724ea215ab18766a8921","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","task_sha256":"a7071346ea5a7c054520cf2536943c5339adec424652967eab916704c154ae47","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.102917Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_0496a7d4","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["901aa31734a3c516ba279d2a524315f2cec9ed6b85166b957ee173dd62974750"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"7b3fcdc38051078d800f8ac2314d8764e0862cd7fed2975749ab5f608bcf0ee0","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"panagopoulos_timing","x":["contacted_3days"],"y":"vtr_gen05"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.102917Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"panagopoulos_timing","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["contacted_3days"],"y":"vtr_gen05"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_dc8b6a67","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"panagopoulos_timing":"a9840be060a94f8bcf5d9657e12a817f7e5a23d132aea3f8161124cbc615d87e"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":7.524541113525629,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"cf81d01e402040939bb91c6c91db05b20c3f23d39c16577e8ad9fa70d3312ecc","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"b5261c89323a77b18a2f6acf4802c6ec72821dca731ebd26dc8298bd2e4d14df","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_dc8b6a67","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":25000},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.000682942976952039},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":24998},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.09629650816676527,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.03474270122833601,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.06551960469755064,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":25000.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de contacted_3days na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de vtr_gen05.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.01570203000813956,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0002465537463765153}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.06551960469755064},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9600588874980247},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.01570203000813956}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 24998 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.contacted_3days","label":"Coefficient on contacted_3days in the regression of vtr_gen05","se":0.01570203000813956,"unit":"","value":0.06551960469755064}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.5126529387467661,"ci_low":0.499991554847525,"coef":0.5063222467971455,"p":0.0,"se":0.0032298478326340256,"t":156.76349878818485,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.09629650816676527,"ci_low":0.03474270122833601,"coef":0.06551960469755064,"p":3.020494203020048e-05,"se":0.01570203000813956,"t":4.172683701635192,"term":"contacted_3days"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"c46d43fdf989d2e040482f8ee4681bad31231a3d5397e1df2a96f98132ac9613","result_sha256":"046549397b0d45d644137fb681ee74c6525d24b7d45eca5369a71e479d6078e9","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.105667Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_0496a7d4"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_cbd18107","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["901aa31734a3c516ba279d2a524315f2cec9ed6b85166b957ee173dd62974750","e510f5ed28dc5de2bc7a9ef6f966556b22c0c6e49d40b2449d9e92be1aa9dfc7","e3d1f29b921bc6b4d7a3b9f3c98779fd4d16dff4dd752ce0cb89cdcbcd17d0c1"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"7b3fcdc38051078d800f8ac2314d8764e0862cd7fed2975749ab5f608bcf0ee0","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.contacted_3days = 0,06552.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_dc8b6a67:coef.contacted_3days"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":3,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.113386Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_09d2aa52","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,06552"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.114931Z","turn_id":"call_cbd18107","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.contacted_3days = 0,06552.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_dc8b6a67","ci_high":0.09629650816676527,"ci_low":0.03474270122833601,"formatted":0.06551960469755064,"key":"coef.contacted_3days","ref":"call_dc8b6a67:coef.contacted_3days","se":0.01570203000813956,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":0.06551960469755064},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_dc8b6a67:coef.contacted_3days"],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.115114Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":6,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.115114Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.0655196047 vs 0.005","expected":0.005,"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.06551960469755064,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q075","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_dc8b6a67","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":7,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q075","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.115114Z"}