{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"oswald_computational":{"description_shown":"This dataset contains country-year observations compiled from V-Dem, PEMA, World Bank, and UNHCR sources. It includes measures of democracy, democracy assistance, foreign aid, socioeconomic indicators, and country identifiers, with key variables lagged to reflect temporal relationships.\n\nData variables\n\nv2x_polarchy: Democracy index, from 0 (least), 1 (most democratic)\nipema_any_demo_assist_dum_2l: Dummy indicator for any democracy assistance, lagged by 2 years\nipema_any_demo_assdiv_2l: Measures exogenous variation in democracy assistance, lagged by 2 years\niany_demo_all_max_dum_2l: Dummy indicator for maximum democracy assistance, lagged 2 years\niany_demo_all_maxdiv_2l: Measures exogenous variation in democracy assistance (max), lagged 2 years\niwdi_pop_3l: Population, lagged by 3 years\niwdi_oda_3l: Official development assistance (any foreign aid), lagged by 3 years\niwdi_gdppc_3l: GDP per capita, lagged by 3 years\niunhcr_ref_idp_3l: Number of refugees/internally displaced persons, lagged by 3 years\niwdi_literacy_3l: Literacy rate, lagged by 3 years\niwdi_fuel_3l: Access to fuel, lagged by 3 years\ncountry: Country identifier ","file_sha256":"62eba7a6255f94d594b8652e718bf7feae28b5228729ce0205ee7351eed9b52e","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of receiving the highest level of democracy assistance (vs. less or none) on democracy outcomes?","question_sha256":"7259cd077e2490faedd61533ad04ff310883357f3f8284a59e900138b98af8b4","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","task_sha256":"aefe87680df081e124214ccd6be6d541d59ad31c58e8259f156de69acd231c99","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.215102Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_4208ed29","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["9bf0c1b4565a64cbc3641ea7629a22f86d90b883950044463c6506290fc013f5"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"0bb25401e281d49c0e94ad3525657346f05cb5ddec12ee3af2e8936d6dad2130","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"oswald_computational","x":["iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"],"y":"v2x_polyarchy"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.215102Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"oswald_computational","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"],"y":"v2x_polyarchy"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_97514a3d","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"oswald_computational":"bd7df9f2bf63382b825d88edb3d807e44ceaa3962e781866c22e2c063ef5191a"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":12.517208000645041,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"1c40ad56d16938f70e377bf5ce47b658f306dda12e6ce64292f462668f324c2a","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"630d41f56d78cf374e8f4bed5ff86b9a0025c261124e9a6b3eeb06293769954c","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_97514a3d","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":867},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.015972650192412563},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":865},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.11340965379528359,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.03512028831663335,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.07426497105595847,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":867.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de v2x_polyarchy.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.019944198245059566,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.00039777104363823706}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.07426497105595847},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9627102708438913},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.019944198245059566}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 865 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l","label":"Coefficient on iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l in the regression of v2x_polyarchy","se":0.019944198245059566,"unit":"","value":0.07426497105595847}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.3492312733698596,"ci_low":0.32621246872874976,"coef":0.3377218710493047,"p":3.171891462041231e-298,"se":0.005864035304409111,"t":57.59205965137606,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.11340965379528359,"ci_low":0.03512028831663335,"coef":0.07426497105595847,"p":0.00020908938182526328,"se":0.019944198245059566,"t":3.723637829079184,"term":"iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["287 rows were dropped because one of 'v2x_polyarchy', 'iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"aa3be2a129455bdba09f79f375e07b02f314140e028f53a6c4f2d4142dcbd822","result_sha256":"eba7a8b6a08b41b3e08c6351102fc795fae934a5990d1699854879b9972969fa","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.218256Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_4208ed29"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_ea153012","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["9bf0c1b4565a64cbc3641ea7629a22f86d90b883950044463c6506290fc013f5","d6c6d88e0d8a2582b51eb8eae5b9b55b2916af65475e50accab3ffcce76357c0","6820518e2caaf25680cac25ab867fcf4db4703d15625fc97c46934aa33ce56ee"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"0bb25401e281d49c0e94ad3525657346f05cb5ddec12ee3af2e8936d6dad2130","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l = 0,07426.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_97514a3d:coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":3,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.230935Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_945bdfa0","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,07426"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.233833Z","turn_id":"call_ea153012","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l = 0,07426.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_97514a3d","ci_high":0.11340965379528359,"ci_low":0.03512028831663335,"formatted":0.07426497105595847,"key":"coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l","ref":"call_97514a3d:coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l","se":0.019944198245059566,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":0.07426497105595847},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_97514a3d:coef.iany_demo_all_max_dum_2l"],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.234017Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":6,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.234017Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.07426497106 vs 2.062","expected":2.062,"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.07426497105595847,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q082","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_97514a3d","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":7,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q082","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.234017Z"}