{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"urdinez_undermining":{"description_shown":"The data comes from an online panel survey conducted across 6 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. The survey was conducted in two waves, before Chinese COVID-19 vaccines were available and after vaccination campaigns were being carried out extensively. In the first round, the survey gathered socio-demographic information and participants' views on the six countries. Meanwhile, the second wave contained vaccine-corrected questions, such as whether respondents had received the Chinese Covid-19 vaccine. Both surveys asked the participants' attitudes towards China and the USA.\nData variables:\nwave: survey year (2020, 2021)\nduration: time spent by respondents in the survey\ncountry: numeric country code\ndevice: survey device used\nsex: 0=female, 1=male\nage: respondents' age\nagerecode: age group code\nvaccine: vaccination status\nsouth_korea_score: favorability score assigned to South Korea\nchina_score: favorability score assigned to China\nusa_score: favorability score assigned to the U.S.\njapan_score: favorability score assigned to Japan\nideology: political ideology\neducation: highest education level\nregion_ar: Argentina subregion code\nregion_br: Brazil subregion code\nregion_co: Colombia subregion code\nregion_cl: Chile subregion code\nregion_mx: Mexico subregion code\nregion_pe: Peru subregion code\ndelta_china: change in favorability score for China\ndelta_usa: change in favorability score for the U.S.\nincome: respondents' income\nregion_code: numeric region identifier\ncountry_name: name of the country\nrespondent_code: unique respondent identifier\nnews_experiment: treatment in survey experiment\nboth_waves: indicator if respondent answered both waves\nexcluded: indicator for excluded observations","file_sha256":"0d804a4b724492f48aeb435e50c458467d1633762f28d7877e8d78bf85daf286","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Does receiving a Chinese COVID-19 vaccine cause an increase in an individual's favorability toward China?","question_sha256":"fafe7c207967c069608da5e66c09725f3ada89ab1c151041642721baf9101997","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","task_sha256":"67b066019b7a57f3561d41641c69473187e0f107ebf24fc7e60ee184dca00b23","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.322157Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_f3698c83","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["4e288d2ca8fa6a2d7a4743378e944d5fdda3eed27146ff1e4e3bc4caf9f415b0"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"9f7130375e58cf06164380c723b1f32eb13ce915840d15bacd2bfa1348d64178","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"urdinez_undermining","x":["vaccine"],"y":"china_score"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.322157Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"urdinez_undermining","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["vaccine"],"y":"china_score"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_3157a92a","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"urdinez_undermining":"be8c21837f47851acc322a376c4d699f08336d9143f56b79277184ea265367ee"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":23.80804088898003,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"de541822fef9475a7d892279a06ae579c81542d257951491c37c34ec5a38f8e8","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"21d2cc4202fb914c2138c26b1d4166dfbaced00b1dffe16f7f75569cab4831a2","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_3157a92a","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":4445},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.004604510142790397},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":4443},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":7.863156689950731,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":3.1876724230314153,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":5.525414556491073,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":4445.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de vaccine na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de china_score.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":1.1924225678385145,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":1.4218715802905968}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":5.525414556491073},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9604980621066626},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":1.1924225678385145}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 4443 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.vaccine","label":"Coefficient on vaccine in the regression of china_score","se":1.1924225678385145,"unit":"","value":5.525414556491073}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":48.40554801343293,"ci_low":46.481911793641025,"coef":47.443729903536976,"p":0.0,"se":0.49059885775272066,"t":96.70574880842938,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":7.863156689950731,"ci_low":3.1876724230314153,"coef":5.525414556491073,"p":3.6934226265459824e-06,"se":1.1924225678385145,"t":4.633772209215148,"term":"vaccine"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"a70868f59d25050b8e0dbfa8e577fa431a5064025212162e35ce86b77dab02ea","result_sha256":"483fd59a8c7847a7a7002283dd00a3cdc7adf8543a0c291692fa1ee9e290a262","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.325446Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_f3698c83"}
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{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.vaccine = 5,525.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_3157a92a","ci_high":7.863156689950731,"ci_low":3.1876724230314153,"formatted":5.525414556491073,"key":"coef.vaccine","ref":"call_3157a92a:coef.vaccine","se":1.1924225678385145,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":5.525414556491073},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_3157a92a:coef.vaccine"],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q085","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.351866Z"}
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