{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"song_estimating_incumbency":{"description_shown":"The dataset is a panel of electoral constituencies across multiple countries and years, designed to study incumbency effects. Each row corresponds to a party's performance in a given constituency at a given election.\n\nDataset Variables:\nyear: The year of the election\ncountry: The country where the election took place (e.g., Canada, Japan, UK, USA, Romania, etc.)\noffice: Name of the office being contested (e.g., House of Commons, Mayor)\ncst_n: Constituency identifier (e.g., \"\"abbotsford\"\", \"\"abitibi\"\")\nl_vmargin: Lagged vote margin: the party's vote margin in the previous election (Values more than 0 indicate the party won (positive) and values less than 0 indicate the party lost (negative))\nvmargin: Current vote margin: the party's vote margin in the current election\nvs: Vote share of the party in the current election (between 0 and 1)\nwin: Outcome of the current election: 1 means the party won the seat, 0 means the party lost\nl_win: Lagged win indicator: 1 means the party won the previous election in this constituency, 0 means the party lost\ninc: Incumbency indicator for the party's candidate in the current election: 1 means candidate is the incumbent, 0 means not incumbent, -1 appears to mark cases where incumbency is undefined or missing\noffice_num: Encoded office type, combining country and office (e.g., Canada, House)\nrd_s: Indicator variable that equals 1 if the observation is part of a subset of elections defined by narrow vote margins, and 0 otherwise","file_sha256":"f9455065815897f357981f2f97871fe8b7137acf6ef1b2772241d4bf05de9b10","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"In the UK, in very close elections, does just barely winning make it more likely that the party's candidate will stand again as the incumbent in the next election?","question_sha256":"166a740a792ec730b3031b2d7a0045b4a790720a7ffabdf24b6cf8625e57bae2","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q098","task_sha256":"59bd365344197d583a3a24f2afc0247ad6397b9a1a5b3f72e08f0577a9f2e1d6","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.535240Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_10b4d5ed","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["f110d684b338417fb758dcd3a9f3acb7257cfb261ca33395f244b1804772ccb7"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"3ce935e36aa8b57cb98f8703f21bb7fd185fe562814b9285553abc600ecdc050","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: o item n\u00e3o declara o resultado e o tratamento, ent\u00e3o n\u00e3o h\u00e1 regress\u00e3o ing\u00eanua a fazer e nenhuma estimativa \u00e9 citada.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":[]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q098","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.535240Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
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{"answer":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: o item n\u00e3o declara o resultado e o tratamento, ent\u00e3o n\u00e3o h\u00e1 regress\u00e3o ing\u00eanua a fazer e nenhuma estimativa \u00e9 citada.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":[],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":3,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q098","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.537355Z"}
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{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call","expected":0.086,"failure_class":"no_estimate_cited","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":null,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q098","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q098","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.537355Z"}