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{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"conley_inference_with_merit","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["merit"],"y":"coll"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_7725ee5a","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"conley_inference_with_merit":"e8e2a51104ccc15dad142f997ce73a6a0e3e5ce984dfebfc62c7cf412802bdfc"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":21.46562491543591,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"3f80b732ce6af3d1df9c741baab1dd97e75f94f5edaff8066623e7c309901313","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"83b62990a105b44c655c7787a54ea00e280c9ed9f69d88f100b55a2b58e415de","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_7725ee5a","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":42161},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.0004512524325973599},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":42159},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":-0.025659101529590347,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-0.06656828339875336,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":-0.04611369246417185,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":42161.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de merit na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de coll.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.010435907932336666,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.00010890817437220734}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":-0.04611369246417185},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9600202557557052},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.010435907932336666}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 42159 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.merit","label":"Coefficient on merit in the regression of coll","se":0.010435907932336666,"unit":"","value":-0.04611369246417185}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.4520233558644275,"ci_low":0.44225618810624195,"coef":0.4471397719853347,"p":0.0,"se":0.0024915986785095114,"t":179.45898584792005,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":-0.025659101529590347,"ci_low":-0.06656828339875336,"coef":-0.04611369246417185,"p":9.951956595718836e-06,"se":0.010435907932336666,"t":-4.418752327364267,"term":"merit"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"f89666ef6ac5e5d3ab25d5ebbb4e6d990cb4101bdbb179118e949d3a07bb21f6","result_sha256":"19d5e8b1930604c4ded061e2cb166a9ef8a6eda1cd658c6d1d02593e76599680","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q109","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.813970Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_1bfe7975"}
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