{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"conley_inference_with_hope":{"description_shown":"Individual-level U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata pooled across states and years (late 1980s-2000). Each row is a person-year observation with demographics plus state and year identifiers suitable for fixed-effects analysis. The sample spans all 50 states plus DC.\n\nVariables:\ncollegeAttendance: Whether the person is enrolled in college (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nhopeScholarship: Statewide Hope Scholarship program in effect in that state-year (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nmale: Respondent's gender (1 = male, 0 = female)\nblack: Race indicator (1 = Black/African American, 0 = otherwise)\nasian: Race indicator (1 = Asian, 0 = otherwise)\nyear: CPS survey year (e.g., 1989-2000)\nstate: Numeric CPS state code identifying the respondent's state (includes DC)","file_sha256":"8c646a88e3c045b7ba1c179b5012dedcc34f8e64d901159ce4f2eca89e77f330","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of the HOPE scholarship on college attendance?","question_sha256":"a24cadd39f5143706061b9a3664bcd4bcdf3b8af5b21c3dd9ff6653d3018f5be","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q110","task_sha256":"deb0c1da422c34494f7ef38368180bc0c0fe21aaceb7c0cfbc9d71fbec90b3c8","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.828183Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_e3a7f814","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["432c0f881d92c5472bce3f0de9bfa2fd485bac5ce126979e5203bebf1042bbb0"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"a217a8308baa7ca1afd21f799559846449ec9ed5b32e4de83e10bd89976dd1c1","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"conley_inference_with_hope","x":["hopeScholarship"],"y":"collegeAttendance"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q110","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.828183Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"conley_inference_with_hope","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["hopeScholarship"],"y":"collegeAttendance"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_d4211264","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"conley_inference_with_hope":"fa5d9847488b0396d491a7be7185829ccafec75ef49d3633f2e7cdcb29f69e05"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":25.8993748575449,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"8fc699cd327700b110b881c5770f17e7fcb26621d8feadece3ee4a04a98bb3eb","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"e33e5ec1cd78f4717f861d3b07f801e5f1887bf5c7e480e07fadd3ae007e8d44","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_d4211264","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":34907},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.0002642506471258743},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":34905},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":-0.026592032782001507,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-0.11718014678543473,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":-0.07188608978371812,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":34907.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de hopeScholarship na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de collegeAttendance.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.02310883605238589,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0005340183036960499}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":-0.07188608978371812},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9600319505075283},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.02310883605238589}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 34905 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.hopeScholarship","label":"Coefficient on hopeScholarship in the regression of collegeAttendance","se":0.02310883605238589,"unit":"","value":-0.07188608978371812}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.45883923665371634,"ci_low":0.448325800056577,"coef":0.4535825183551467,"p":0.0,"se":0.0026819554126189084,"t":169.12381026954768,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":-0.026592032782001507,"ci_low":-0.11718014678543473,"coef":-0.07188608978371812,"p":0.0018675560234692658,"se":0.02310883605238589,"t":-3.1107620314912476,"term":"hopeScholarship"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["1 rows were dropped because one of 'collegeAttendance', 'hopeScholarship' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"ccb3bb6805ab1254c32f70ef0c6692509a0434de951692cbb629b62b71c4bae7","result_sha256":"59c8a4916677c87fe48d502b714817b6659c02af5a48d34c239b159c809671b4","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q110","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.830687Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_e3a7f814"}
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{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.hopeScholarship = -0,07189.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_d4211264","ci_high":-0.026592032782001507,"ci_low":-0.11718014678543473,"formatted":-0.07188608978371812,"key":"coef.hopeScholarship","ref":"call_d4211264:coef.hopeScholarship","se":0.02310883605238589,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":-0.07188608978371812},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_d4211264:coef.hopeScholarship"],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q110","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:44.858281Z"}
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