{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"lalonde_evaluating":{"description_shown":"The dataset contains the results of a randomized control trial associated with a job training program. Participants in the treatment group were provided training to enhance their job skills, while participants in the control group did not receive any training. Data on the demographics and the incomes of the participants, both before and after the program, were collected. Similarly, data on earnings post-program completion were also collected.\n\nData Variables:\ntreat: treatment indicator (1 if treated, 0 if not treated)\nage: age\neducation: education\nblack: Black (1 if black, 0 otherwise)\nhispanic: Hispanic (1 if Hispanic, 0 otherwise)\nmarried: married (1 if married, 0 otherwise)\nnodegree: nodegree (1 if no degree, 0 otherwise)\nre75: RE75 (earnings in 1975)\nre78: RE78 (earnings in 1978)\nincome_change: income change","file_sha256":"488cd9ba9eada1033c158df8fff9d86b57cab90710c3725a8e0db33da25ef3dc","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]},"lalonde_evaluating_ref":{"description_shown":"","file_sha256":"488cd9ba9eada1033c158df8fff9d86b57cab90710c3725a8e0db33da25ef3dc","frame_sha256":null,"role":"reference","transforms":[{"args":{"args":{"column":"age"},"name":"age_sq","op":"square"},"op":"derive"}]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of the training program on earnings when considering earnings in 1978 and 1975?","question_sha256":"23d3ce6c809c87b80f0e15de9ccca56a3d4c60b6d2118a3f55ec3f3513d7a28b","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","task_sha256":"0677b92fc75126cdc0d9015e76a5de49e76ef7c66d639f34f6d745deee021d39","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.120622Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_257cc49c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["667b2085843c97ba096d533cd3a1a6ea732eaeb65369654344d179ffbd6cebc4"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"da11da70d6c3c81aaae340cda4cd27e5e2b65c7f7f724fc679afafc641d5650c","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"lalonde_evaluating","x":["treat"],"y":"re78"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.120622Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"lalonde_evaluating","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["treat"],"y":"re78"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_ec7a7643","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"lalonde_evaluating":"33264130aefd96a44758b00a099b93709ae894a280436663c6072447fff1bb3a"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2.332415897399187,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"de68ecb830fac7fba39efe437beafc6aea274f0afd120fbbc6f4dc9ee27547f9","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"ca46b517917e1e8916c408d2534b257e841be4105fe2aaa3babe5adb45a438cf","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_ec7a7643","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":722},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.004871571415969167},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":720},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":1844.6486640614676,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-72.0412026539808,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":886.3037307037433,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":722.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de treat na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de re78.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":488.1385324732475,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":238279.2268851357}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":886.3037307037433},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9632642571814312},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":488.1385324732475}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 720 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.treat","label":"Coefficient on treat in the regression of re78","se":488.1385324732475,"unit":"","value":886.3037307037433}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":5634.708953845622,"ci_low":4545.387650201437,"coef":5090.04830202353,"p":5.598530356594129e-62,"se":277.42605195901484,"t":18.347405609821752,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":1844.6486640614676,"ci_low":-72.0412026539808,"coef":886.3037307037433,"p":0.06983519664975948,"se":488.1385324732475,"t":1.8156807376240418,"term":"treat"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"523e0b8a5d5d9cfbebe5a7cd8020affac45ef14e1b04434a8e64e2525c9a9d27","result_sha256":"f1bdba4b4dad3ecc8009568e9a05198145bcbd1045d2d56fc8a9552067e7753e","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.123544Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_257cc49c"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_fe84ce67","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["667b2085843c97ba096d533cd3a1a6ea732eaeb65369654344d179ffbd6cebc4","5564bfb8a7101508d62b746812d24466035307407a724a9ad09329df77443fba","79480e013d8f033019d4c2d023f872b3fbee20b89a03559ac83cbc8dab6a6042"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"da11da70d6c3c81aaae340cda4cd27e5e2b65c7f7f724fc679afafc641d5650c","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.treat = 886,3.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_ec7a7643:coef.treat"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":3,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.126010Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_d00cf7da","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["886,3"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.127403Z","turn_id":"call_fe84ce67","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.treat = 886,3.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_ec7a7643","ci_high":1844.6486640614676,"ci_low":-72.0412026539808,"formatted":886.3037307037433,"key":"coef.treat","ref":"call_ec7a7643:coef.treat","se":488.1385324732475,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":886.3037307037433},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_ec7a7643:coef.treat"],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.127581Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":6,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.127581Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"886.3037307 vs 856.911","expected":856.911,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":886.3037307037433,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q128","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_ec7a7643","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":7,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q128","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:45.127581Z"}