{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"snyder_partisan_imbalance":{"description_shown":"The dataset contains the results of state-level elections: House, Senate, and Governor. It includes data on the share of the Democrats in the election and the outcomes. An election is won by the party that secures voter share greater than 0.5.\n\nVariable description:\nstate: state where the election is held\nyear: year when the election is held\noffice: office type (S = senate, H = house, G = governor, etc.)\ndist: district number\ntype: election type (G = general, S = special)\ndem_share: democratic vote share in the election (fraction between 0 and 1)\ndem_win: whether the democratic candidate won the election (1) or not (0)\ndem_share_next: democratic vote share in the next election (fraction between 0 and 1)\ndem_win_next: whether the democratic candidate won the next election (1) or not (0)\ngov_dem: whether the governor is a democrat (1) or not (0)","file_sha256":"99e59a95d25976b16c17acb02da90f6473f2fee0dd67abf9ffe30180d3ea76de","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of the democratic candidate winning the election on the democratic candidate winning the next election in statewide races?","question_sha256":"f46ddab10e83631bd2cb6384f3586d20d6a80c7be1b733a4f31a807e8902a9d4","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","task_sha256":"a0d17a5a5f28d13ea706385daece8800950f1a189f54fd0f088a3a78e4f83b1d","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.283161Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_74c98e69","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["4f39c8f7495cded2fd8e8d5b35052ad399a5721b3e4837d472dbc9c242eb3ee4"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"bf5ef283eca3c5d812759becb3c71c7ec3f209b614aaf71b58d1d0332fa59d02","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"snyder_partisan_imbalance","x":["dem_win"],"y":"dem_share_next"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.283161Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"snyder_partisan_imbalance","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["dem_win"],"y":"dem_share_next"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_b84aa81b","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"snyder_partisan_imbalance":"c9bcc0a1d879ed759a76ee8622080be9d11d61ba5ca7f760a2694c7dcaf4adbf"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":16.26279205083847,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"ef2ce05470c39e78e18e18345e2c179e6891e6bbdb7b131c0e6cd42a142eb6b6","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"1a84cdcbe7c2be56b57a68694aa5153facfb8f3aea9da837839ac1ebec3ac2d9","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_b84aa81b","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":31491},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.4638246153535349},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":31489},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.21436053070646127,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.2092801556198991,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.21182034316318019,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":31491.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de dem_win na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de dem_share_next.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.0012959880510134568,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":1.6795850283696582e-06}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.21182034316318019},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.960039323892441},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.0012959880510134568}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 31489 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.dem_win","label":"Coefficient on dem_win in the regression of dem_share_next","se":0.0012959880510134568,"unit":"","value":0.21182034316318019}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.4120651007450718,"ci_low":0.40920772022542345,"coef":0.4106364104852476,"p":0.0,"se":0.000728908977696912,"t":563.3575975188421,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.21436053070646127,"ci_low":0.2092801556198991,"coef":0.21182034316318019,"p":0.0,"se":0.0012959880510134568,"t":163.44312973992132,"term":"dem_win"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["12372 rows were dropped because one of 'dem_share_next', 'dem_win' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"8b04c8147972bef605270aed237330b6e4a15a502b3b1ffad3e7bdded9d86656","result_sha256":"b595eb2c8e91ee362ae51c84dc4725f4db4baf48700a0e09f426c1591f15aed9","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.286045Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_74c98e69"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_49dc360f","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["4f39c8f7495cded2fd8e8d5b35052ad399a5721b3e4837d472dbc9c242eb3ee4","422c73f2e819caaf134451fdc5238a09cfe4317ac0ea6b27941fd34a90759611","dc10c0c2c19677eb0e30d02231f9f2d4f4adf46e01b7eb184ae4a65ca473bc78"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"bf5ef283eca3c5d812759becb3c71c7ec3f209b614aaf71b58d1d0332fa59d02","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.dem_win = 0,2118.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_b84aa81b:coef.dem_win"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":3,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.302480Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_34528f99","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,2118"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.305140Z","turn_id":"call_49dc360f","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.dem_win = 0,2118.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_b84aa81b","ci_high":0.21436053070646127,"ci_low":0.2092801556198991,"formatted":0.21182034316318019,"key":"coef.dem_win","ref":"call_b84aa81b:coef.dem_win","se":0.0012959880510134568,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":0.21182034316318019},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_b84aa81b:coef.dem_win"],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.305311Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":6,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.305311Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.2118203432 vs 0.058","expected":0.058,"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.21182034316318019,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q146","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_b84aa81b","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":7,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q146","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.305311Z"}