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{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"snyder_partisan_imbalance","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["dem_win"],"y":"gov_dem"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_0e64b0e0","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"snyder_partisan_imbalance":"c9bcc0a1d879ed759a76ee8622080be9d11d61ba5ca7f760a2694c7dcaf4adbf"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":40.54491687566042,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"4cbd1070fcb870e95485ffc059429a2e8f214f40e499c3beab320f14795960a5","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"37eba8e119c9916429ac046c05c46a52a1aabad72f3877110b7c178ad4ea2fdd","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_0e64b0e0","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":43451},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.10898239915868502},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":43449},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.33897293304819714,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.3211707184416753,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.3300718257449362,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":43451.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de dem_win na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de gov_dem.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.004541338215513102,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":2.0623752787679725e-05}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.3300718257449362},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.960018585018611},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.004541338215513102}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 43449 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.dem_win","label":"Coefficient on dem_win in the regression of gov_dem","se":0.004541338215513102,"unit":"","value":0.3300718257449362}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.3681088598824416,"ci_low":0.35481631696322946,"coef":0.3614625884228355,"p":0.0,"se":0.0033909226730842205,"t":106.5971192124138,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.33897293304819714,"ci_low":0.3211707184416753,"coef":0.3300718257449362,"p":0.0,"se":0.004541338215513102,"t":72.68162160162808,"term":"dem_win"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["412 rows were dropped because one of 'gov_dem', 'dem_win' was missing"]},"result_for_model_ref":"e563f57ac84ff4eaa0d1ca661bd0bb5b55b02512dc61b8b7ab7992d60c3d83cf","result_sha256":"dea14e95d508fc64bcfedd3b54684b8a7bec157983f9196349dba58c0d35d62a","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q147","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.362182Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_9bba1bec"}
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