{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"chi_improving":{"description_shown":"This dataset comprises comprehensive academic records from a large Canadian university system, consisting of one central campus and two smaller satellite campuses. The data tracks 12,530 first-year students who entered the university between the 1996-97 and 2003-04 academic years, with students aged 17-21 at entry. The dataset focuses on students whose academic performance places them near institutional academic standing thresholds, specifically those with first-year GPAs within a range of the university's academic evaluation criteria. Different campuses maintain distinct GPA cutoffs for academic standing assessments, resulting in variations in institutional policies across the university system. Students are placed on academic probation if their GPA falls below the cutoffs. The longitudinal structure captures academic performance across multiple terms and years, including semester and cumulative GPAs, total credits attempted and completed, registration patterns for fall and summer terms, and academic standing determinations. Outcome measures track graduation status at 4, 5, and 6-year intervals, along with probation and suspension incidents.\n\nVariable description:\nwinter_ac_standing: winter academic standing status (OKAY or PROB (indicating probation))\nGPA_year1: grade point average by academic year 1\nGPA_year2: grade point average for academic year 2\nCGPA_year1: cumulative grade point average for year 1\nCGPA_year2: cumulative grade point average for year 2\ntotcredits_year1: total academic credits attempted in year 1\ntotcredits_year2: total academic credits attempted in year 2\nwinter_ac_stand_year1: winter academic standing status in year 1 (OKAY or PROB (indicating probation))\nwinter_ac_stand_year2: winter academic standing status in year 2 (OKAY or PROB (indicating probation))\ngoodstanding_year1: binary representation of winter_ac_stand_year1; Indicator for academic standing (1 = OKAY, 0 = PROB)\ngoodstanding_year2: binary representation of winter_ac_stand_year2; Indicator for academic standing (1 = OKAY, 0 = PROB)\nfallreg_year1: fall term registration status in year 1 (1 = registered, 0 = not registered)\nfallreg_year2: fall term registration status in year 2 (1 = registered, 0 = not registered)\nsummerreg_year1: summer term registration status in year 1\nsummerreg_year2: summer term registration status in year 2\nsex: Sex of the student (MALE / FEMALE)\nfemale: 1 = FEMALE, 0 = otherwise\nmale: 1 = MALE, 0 = otherwise\nmtongue: mother tongue language\nage_at_entry: student age at university entry\nbpl_north_america, bpl_asia, bpl_other: Binary variables to indicate birth place regions (1 = born in that region, 0 = not born in that region)\ncanadian: Canadian citizenship status (1 = yes, 0 = no)\nfirstyear: year the student first entered the university\nyearstodegree: time taken to complete the degree\ngradin4, gradin5, gradin6: Binary variables that indicate if the student graduated within the specified years\ncumcredits1, cumcredits2: cumulative credits completed in years 1 and 2\nprog_science/prog_socsci_bus/prog_socscihum: binary variable that indicates the academic program of the student: science, social science, humanities\nenglish, french, other_lang: binary variable indicating whether the student's main language is English, French, or some other language\ngpacutoff: GPA evaluation threshold\ndist_from_cut: distance from academic threshold\nprobation_year1: probation status by year 1\nprobation_year2: probation status by year 2\nsuspended_year1: suspension status by year 1\nsuspended_year2: suspension status by year 2\nloc_campus1, loc_campus2, loc_campus3: Binary indicators for campus location\nhsgrade_pct: high school grade percentile\nveryhighHS, highHS, lowHS: Binary indicators for high school performance\nhsgrade_pct: overall percentage achieved in high school\nleft_school: binary variable representing whether the student left school (1) or not (0)","file_sha256":"1acbd68c21bd7148a6cf25c9e94fba3aa8f78556f000e983b66449e83208e297","frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"What is the effect of being placed on academic probation after the first year on the probability that a student leaves school?","question_sha256":"9c6603528eb4b0662d97bc4930a35f2ef93717c03b6ecb46c0c6caf23883414a","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","task_sha256":"e77e07bf0e6203b6fbf1c06ce888538de68728e6e67bf661658e9208e924eecb","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.905890Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_e6bace8d","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["b9fe24d6f709616c11bd7533f68575de501b538de4a95259ffc9445f6a5f89f0"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"25b0a51ebdaf57c35fb71f7e5e28357eb3757ed6a563d615e0c5b5cd2380a755","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"chi_improving","x":["probation_year1"],"y":"left_school"},"llm_name":"infer__ols","tool_id":"infer.ols","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":1,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.905890Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"controls":[],"dataset":"chi_improving","fe":[],"intercept":true,"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"weights":null,"x":["probation_year1"],"y":"left_school"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_fdc61cfc","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"chi_improving":"07e5c97b40fc3910a389247de0a1882b877d2d758d0922a3a211c3358249a099"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":29.261916875839233,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"0615ab4aa50ab9811030ac4f94486031da1e67cd0b81dbab16c4ddc58fd25e48","llm_name":"infer__ols","output_digest":"32cae113616c7774cdb0b05880caaf575f07186520cf66369b599537d370b00a","rationale":"Linha de base ing\u00eanua: regress\u00e3o do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the conditional mean of the outcome is linear in the regressors","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_fdc61cfc","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"observations used","value":44362},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters estimated, fixed-effect dummies included","value":2},{"flag":false,"name":"r2","note":"","value":0.014813105520982695},{"flag":false,"name":"df_resid","note":"","value":44360},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.07915715784702605,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.06414782517608826,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.07165249151155716,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":44362.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros","value":2.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de probation_year1 na regress\u00e3o por m\u00ednimos quadrados ordin\u00e1rios de left_school.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.0038288772801852696,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":1.4660301226718948e-05}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.07165249151155716},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9600174636847496},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.0038288772801852696}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 44360 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.probation_year1","label":"Coefficient on probation_year1 in the regression of left_school","se":0.0038288772801852696,"unit":"","value":0.07165249151155716}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":0.0394815048109107,"ci_low":0.03562049218286212,"coef":0.03755099849688641,"p":0.0,"se":0.0009849434251442953,"t":38.12503087817978,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.07915715784702605,"ci_low":0.06414782517608826,"coef":0.07165249151155716,"p":7.643111691623681e-78,"se":0.0038288772801852696,"t":18.713708031950837,"term":"probation_year1"}]},"tool":"infer.ols","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"c172bd46bab9dd044fafcd3df489d3953866d812dd4d75c75e453aeed2fa2664","result_sha256":"81f80990bf902af9f9ef5bb69a3f41061e5ac5bd969545965324d8b2aac8d90f","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.908943Z","tool_id":"infer.ols","turn_id":"call_e6bace8d"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_91c553dd","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"naive-ols","model_requested":"naive-ols","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["b9fe24d6f709616c11bd7533f68575de501b538de4a95259ffc9445f6a5f89f0","ae38db29f437abe33602df42ec5929e0aed5b80d85547e47421977d1e61578ff","e338349b169ee05313da94141d9f85e2fabcc679e28f92f899e6002923daae98"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"25b0a51ebdaf57c35fb71f7e5e28357eb3757ed6a563d615e0c5b5cd2380a755","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.probation_year1 = 0,07165.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_fdc61cfc:coef.probation_year1"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":3,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.938370Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_9886f039","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,07165"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":4,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.939994Z","turn_id":"call_91c553dd","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa ing\u00eanua (infer.ols): coef.probation_year1 = 0,07165.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_fdc61cfc","ci_high":0.07915715784702605,"ci_low":0.06414782517608826,"formatted":0.07165249151155716,"key":"coef.probation_year1","ref":"call_fdc61cfc:coef.probation_year1","se":0.0038288772801852696,"tool_id":"infer.ols","unit":"","value":0.07165249151155716},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_fdc61cfc:coef.probation_year1"],"run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.940160Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":6,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.940160Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0.07165249151 vs 0.018","expected":0.018,"failure_class":"out_of_tolerance","kind":"answer_figure_close","observed":0.07165249151155716,"passed":false,"required":true,"source_id":"causcibench_real.gold.q152","tolerance":{"abs_tol":null,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":0.05,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_fdc61cfc","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171142Z-suite-causcibench_real-naive-d6494d","seq":7,"task_id":"causcibench_real.q152","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:11:46.940160Z"}
