{"attempt":1,"datasets":{},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"","question_sha256":"e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","task_sha256":"c654f3dd7ec70d146804925bce78646f466bb95f69a3f24ce037957c6c746a16","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:11.727095Z"}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"dataset":"d","endog":["anos_estudo"],"exog":[],"instruments":["distancia_escola"],"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"y":"log_salario"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_a1b04da2","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"d":"9aaa6f52c3a7e3ace873e80a59e233fec8f57d76752f730fdb78e88653f27bcb"},"decided_by":"code","duration_ms":2.5949159171432257,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"e1b712fe0dd0129897adb6d458a9973c8bca5c1492698c9e70d65f8a4777f194","llm_name":null,"output_digest":"08d7e285488093a35d2e4a92193f68b3a48a7927baaf1d61c244f7c6f5afb875","rationale":"","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_a1b04da2","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"first_stage_F.anos_estudo","note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for anos_estudo (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))","value":537.9969819503206},{"flag":false,"name":"partial_r2.anos_estudo","note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls","value":0.15068717776592144},{"flag":false,"name":"weak_instrument","note":"every first-stage F is at least 10","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":3000},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.5530952542220126,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.3658679549591648,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b2 = \u03c1 / \u03c0","result":0.4594816045905887,"terms":[{"note":"forma reduzida","symbol":"\u03c1","unit":"","value":-0.2774718239368827},{"note":"primeiro est\u00e1gio","symbol":"\u03c0","unit":"","value":-0.6038801579099516}],"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor end\u00f3geno, o MQ2E \u00e9 a raz\u00e3o entre o coeficiente de distancia_escola na forma reduzida (log_salario sobre distancia_escola) e no primeiro est\u00e1gio (anos_estudo sobre distancia_escola).","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.047743660877698574,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0022794571540046852}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.4594816045905887},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9607555832642805},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.047743660877698574}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 2998 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.anos_estudo","label":"2SLS effect of anos_estudo on log_salario","se":0.047743660877698574,"unit":"","value":0.4594816045905887}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":2.0701286186794845,"ci_low":0.5679099176385342,"coef":1.3190192681590094,"p":0.0005825980433307863,"se":0.38307138173235383,"t":3.4432727973414314,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.5530952542220126,"ci_low":0.3658679549591648,"coef":0.4594816045905887,"p":1.2966751585927524e-21,"se":0.047743660877698574,"t":9.623929044059041,"term":"anos_estudo"}],"first_stage":[{"ci_high":-0.5528315033145562,"ci_low":-0.6549288125053471,"coef":-0.6038801579099516,"endog":"anos_estudo","instrument":"distancia_escola","p":1.326922604573249e-109,"se":0.026035195325268053,"t":-23.19476195071466}],"reduced_form":[{"ci_high":-0.20489051379984097,"ci_low":-0.3500531340739244,"coef":-0.2774718239368827,"instrument":"distancia_escola","p":8.625842024789069e-14,"se":0.03701701056294218,"t":-7.495792332151759}]},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":null,"result_sha256":"d42be90d8a7cb5a0856b35127258736470226ecae55c7987647e12bef3dce79c","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":1,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:11.727095Z","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","turn_id":null}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"dataset":"d","endog":["anos_estudo"],"exog":[],"instruments":["distancia_escola"],"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"y":"log_salario"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_72ce7624","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"d":"40671b61940dc5cbad82d268fb94d993fbee6b4cacded5bd7c7535a503dadc69"},"decided_by":"code","duration_ms":2.5978328194469213,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"e1b712fe0dd0129897adb6d458a9973c8bca5c1492698c9e70d65f8a4777f194","llm_name":null,"output_digest":"950be824444f418b8f8c5e447525e7012c69e2076ab6e6a8aaa9ba6f6be2c941","rationale":"","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_72ce7624","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"first_stage_F.anos_estudo","note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for anos_estudo (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))","value":515.8483166443116},{"flag":false,"name":"partial_r2.anos_estudo","note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls","value":0.1488737305454143},{"flag":false,"name":"weak_instrument","note":"every first-stage F is at least 10","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":3000},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.5837149434264877,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.3961532832910381,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b2 = \u03c1 / \u03c0","result":0.48993411335876286,"terms":[{"note":"forma reduzida","symbol":"\u03c1","unit":"","value":-0.28826873671876646},{"note":"primeiro est\u00e1gio","symbol":"\u03c0","unit":"","value":-0.5883826597468934}],"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor end\u00f3geno, o MQ2E \u00e9 a raz\u00e3o entre o coeficiente de distancia_escola na forma reduzida (log_salario sobre distancia_escola) e no primeiro est\u00e1gio (anos_estudo sobre distancia_escola).","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.04782892414953512,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.002287605985301984}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.48993411335876286},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9607555832642805},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.04782892414953512}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 2998 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.anos_estudo","label":"2SLS effect of anos_estudo on log_salario","se":0.04782892414953512,"unit":"","value":0.48993411335876286}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":1.8257251048411454,"ci_low":0.3239738191546645,"coef":1.074849461997905,"p":0.005036799330741749,"se":0.38295218907048945,"t":2.8067458358360735,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.5837149434264877,"ci_low":0.3961532832910381,"coef":0.48993411335876286,"p":3.1592289725918277e-24,"se":0.04782892414953512,"t":10.243469241060167,"term":"anos_estudo"}],"first_stage":[{"ci_high":-0.5375875016190449,"ci_low":-0.6391778178747419,"coef":-0.5883826597468934,"endog":"anos_estudo","instrument":"distancia_escola","p":1.6640256093137801e-105,"se":0.025905910232464777,"t":-22.712294394100997}],"reduced_form":[{"ci_high":-0.216887225510968,"ci_low":-0.3596502479265649,"coef":-0.28826873671876646,"instrument":"distancia_escola","p":3.359634896992249e-15,"se":0.03640510414304775,"t":-7.918360447097276}]},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":null,"result_sha256":"744b900efa103143fc5e0daf83932c070506b85fa5f2c18f078b1b1dcf1e9c6d","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:11.730399Z","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","turn_id":null}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"dataset":"d","endog":["anos_estudo"],"exog":[],"instruments":["distancia_escola"],"level":0.95,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"y":"log_salario"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_144549ec","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"d":"029a03c7512b9f63c771855fd7f6c198b0e5550eb7dc83b9bd38722618f9557c"},"decided_by":"code","duration_ms":2.38641700707376,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"e1b712fe0dd0129897adb6d458a9973c8bca5c1492698c9e70d65f8a4777f194","llm_name":null,"output_digest":"9e4a121650377eb7ee1fa4246ad82cf0d430bbf2c50308ee41c3f4e89ea5570e","rationale":"","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"call_id":"call_144549ec","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"first_stage_F.anos_estudo","note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for anos_estudo (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))","value":565.7178964304716},{"flag":false,"name":"partial_r2.anos_estudo","note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls","value":0.14918783565060967},{"flag":false,"name":"weak_instrument","note":"every first-stage F is at least 10","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":3000},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"errors not clustered","value":null}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.611532967173725,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.4301841605303728,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b2 = \u03c1 / \u03c0","result":0.5208585638520489,"terms":[{"note":"forma reduzida","symbol":"\u03c1","unit":"","value":-0.30825558595992714},{"note":"primeiro est\u00e1gio","symbol":"\u03c0","unit":"","value":-0.5918220556463526}],"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor end\u00f3geno, o MQ2E \u00e9 a raz\u00e3o entre o coeficiente de distancia_escola na forma reduzida (log_salario sobre distancia_escola) e no primeiro est\u00e1gio (anos_estudo sobre distancia_escola).","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.04624462329502622,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0021385651836988815}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.5208585638520489},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9607555832642805},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.04624462329502622}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 2998 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.anos_estudo","label":"2SLS effect of anos_estudo on log_salario","se":0.04624462329502622,"unit":"","value":0.5208585638520489}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"coefficients":[{"ci_high":1.5812665272641853,"ci_low":0.1190881532885828,"coef":0.850177340276384,"p":0.022668955736732378,"se":0.3728609487219608,"t":2.280145837719128,"term":"Intercept"},{"ci_high":0.611532967173725,"ci_low":0.4301841605303728,"coef":0.5208585638520489,"p":7.515260035110559e-29,"se":0.04624462329502622,"t":11.263116157939796,"term":"anos_estudo"}],"first_stage":[{"ci_high":-0.5430338722623543,"ci_low":-0.6406102390303509,"coef":-0.5918220556463526,"endog":"anos_estudo","instrument":"distancia_escola","p":1.0713055309114613e-114,"se":0.02488233811517465,"t":-23.784824919062817}],"reduced_form":[{"ci_high":-0.2378497301843082,"ci_low":-0.37866144173554606,"coef":-0.30825558595992714,"instrument":"distancia_escola","p":1.4392180409172463e-17,"se":0.03590751258165832,"t":-8.584710100954894}]},"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":null,"result_sha256":"8eafc38792459ff24d83ebaaf4a7642b36c726bbb7a759631ae08d94d406dedd","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":3,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:11.733717Z","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","turn_id":null}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_be6a72dc","data":{"inputs":{"contexts":100,"kept":3},"outputs":{"outputs_sha256":"2b7cd4885a2e8ed81089e9d9641797b6856687be151823b907b94dfa9c8cfbdb","records":100}},"decided_by":"code","epoch":1,"event":"note","name":"bench.capture","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":4,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:12.021174Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"100/100 calls ok","expected":100,"failure_class":null,"kind":"status","observed":100,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":5,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:12.021114Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"coverage of the 95% interval: 0.9500 in [0.9000, 0.9900]? (MC SE 0.0218, R=100)","expected":[0.9,0.99],"failure_class":null,"kind":"figure_close","observed":0.95,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":6,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:12.021114Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"bias: mean 0.49793 vs truth 0.5, bias -0.0020727 (MC SE 0.00513, R=100); |bias| <= 0.0154?","expected":{"tolerance":0.015380519881754064,"truth":0.5},"failure_class":null,"kind":"figure_close","observed":-0.00207268,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":7,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:12.021114Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"share with first_stage_F flagged: 0.0000 in [0.0000, 0.0500]? (MC SE 0.0000, R=100) \u2014 a strong instrument is not flagged","expected":[0.0,0.05],"failure_class":null,"kind":"figure_close","observed":0.0,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171311Z-suite-dgp-scripted-505dfe","seq":8,"task_id":"dgp.iv_strong.fast","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:12.021114Z"}