{"call_id":"call_eecf7d3c","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27/tool_selection.iv_continuous.test.s1004/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"llm","name":"llm.analyst.scripted","version":"","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"tools":["calc__annuity","calc__breakeven","calc__combine","calc__discount","calc__fiscal_impact","core__atkinson","core__equivalent_variation","core__fgt","core__gini","core__indirect_incidence","core__kakwani","core__mvpf","core__palma","core__quantile_shares","core__reynolds_smolensky","core__scale_effect","core__theil","core__welfare_change","data__cite","data__describe","data__siconfi","data__sidra","evidence__pool_dl","infer__ate","infer__density_test","infer__did_2x2","infer__did_staggered","infer__event_study","infer__fe","infer__fisher_exact","infer__iv_2sls","infer__linear_hypothesis","infer__mde","infer__neyman","infer__ols","infer__power","infer__randomization_inference","infer__rdd","infer__sample_size","infer__twfe","infer__wald_late","submit_answer"],"exemplars":[]},"input_digest":"","dataset_digests":{},"result":null,"outputs":null,"output_digest":"","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.751288Z","duration_ms":0.0,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":"reference","prompt":"# Role\nYou are MAGI's economist. A municipal analyst in Brazil asks a question; you answer it by choosing registered tools and their arguments. The tools compute every number. Your job is to recognise how the data were generated, pick the tool whose design matches, read what it reports, and say what the result means for the analyst.\n\n# Rules\n1. You never compute a number. Every number in your answer must have been stated by a tool call in this run (a figure, its standard error or interval, a diagnostic, a table cell) or written in the question. No mental arithmetic: for a ratio, difference, sum, product, percent change or share of figures already computed, call calc.combine; to restate a log-point coefficient as a percent or an effect in standard deviations, call core.scale_effect.\n2. Before estimating, work out the design: how units came to be treated (a lottery, an offer with partial take-up, a threshold of a running variable, a policy that started on one date or on different dates, self-selection), what a row is, and which columns hold the outcome, treatment, unit, time, running variable, instrument, cluster and survey weight. Call data.describe when the columns are unclear. Then choose the tool whose \"Use when\" matches and heed its \"Avoid when\".\n3. Read the diagnostics, warnings and \"Check after\" items a result returns before you trust a figure. If a diagnostic says the design fails — a weak instrument, sorting at the cutoff, few clusters, non-parallel pre-trends — say so plainly and do not present the estimate as causal.\n4. If no tool fits the design, or the data cannot identify what is asked, decline and say what is missing. Never invent a design, a column or a number.\n5. A tool that errors or declines returns its reason; fix the arguments and call again, or choose another tool.\n6. Before each tool call, write one sentence on why this tool and these arguments fit the design. It is recorded as your rationale.\n7. Finish with submit_answer. Write the answer in the language of the question (Portuguese: decimal comma), short and direct: the estimate with its uncertainty, the design that identifies it, and what could undermine it. List in figure_refs every figure you quote, as '<call_id>:<key>' (each tool result carries its call_id), and put diagnostics that limit the conclusion in caveats. Write numbers as the tools stated them; do not quote rule-of-thumb thresholds as numbers.\n\n# Datasets\nPass a dataset's id as the `dataset` argument.\n{\n \"id\": \"dados\",\n \"rows\": 3000,\n \"description\": \"Uma linha por trabalhador. log_salario: log do salário-hora; anos_estudo: anos de estudo concluídos; distancia_escola: distância (padronizada) entre a casa onde a pessoa cresceu e a escola mais próxima, valores maiores significam mais longe. A distância afetou quanto a pessoa estudou, mas não afeta o salário por outra via.\",\n \"columns\": {\n  \"log_salario\": \"float64\",\n  \"anos_estudo\": \"float64\",\n  \"distancia_escola\": \"float64\"\n }\n}\n\n# Question\nUm vereador quer saber se vale investir para manter os jovens mais anos na escola: quanto um ano a mais de estudo aumenta o salário? A comparação simples entre quem estudou mais e quem estudou menos mistura habilidade com estudo.","response":"Escolaridade endógena; a distância à escola desloca o estudo sem efeito direto: MQ2E.\ninfer__iv_2sls({\"dataset\": \"dados\", \"y\": \"log_salario\", \"endog\": [\"anos_estudo\"], \"instruments\": [\"distancia_escola\"]})","tokens_in":0,"tokens_out":0,"meta":{"turn_call_id":"call_eecf7d3c","text":"Escolaridade endógena; a distância à escola desloca o estudo sem efeito direto: MQ2E.","tool_calls":[{"vendor_id":"script_1","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","tool_id":"infer.iv_2sls","args":{"dataset":"dados","y":"log_salario","endog":["anos_estudo"],"instruments":["distancia_escola"]}}],"request":{"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"e5ba1bd5c9c7a80b8d730e2270172c197ab724899475758bc52124dc941b8c75","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b","contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["8ef08f49726534e39b76760046795c568938a1f8cde8de5b065486134cee359e"],"config":{}},"attempts":[],"response_id":null,"finish_reason":"tool_use","model_reported":"reference","usage":{"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0,"cached":0},"thoughts":null,"vendor":false,"wall_ms":3.2690828666090965}}
{"call_id":"call_58f6a00d","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27/tool_selection.iv_continuous.test.s1004/e1a1","step":"analysis","kind":"tool","name":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","inputs":{"dataset":"dados","y":"log_salario","endog":["anos_estudo"],"instruments":["distancia_escola"],"exog":[],"cluster":null,"se":"HC1","subset":null,"level":0.95},"input_digest":"782bf73d7c261b8b8530fefd3d88feb664a60c24ea1b18fb7b7e22d49233358c","dataset_digests":{"dados":"b2adeaab7dffdc08f2417581afb9e2840b0b78a262736d7188172f260a9ec469"},"result":{"tool":"infer.iv_2sls","version":"0.1.0","call_id":"call_58f6a00d","status":"ok","reason":"","figures":[{"key":"coef.anos_estudo","value":0.4644976800197844,"unit":"","label":"2SLS effect of anos_estudo on log_salario","se":0.05223276066148537,"ci_low":0.3620820029234701,"ci_high":0.5669133571160987,"ci_level":0.95,"derivation":{"steps":[{"text_pt":"Com um instrumento e um regressor endógeno, o MQ2E é a razão entre o coeficiente de distancia_escola na forma reduzida (log_salario sobre distancia_escola) e no primeiro estágio (anos_estudo sobre distancia_escola).","formula":"β = ρ / π","terms":[{"symbol":"ρ","value":-0.2438103387655225,"unit":"","note":"forma reduzida"},{"symbol":"π","value":-0.5248903261586516,"unit":"","note":"primeiro estágio"}],"result":0.4644976800197844,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Erro-padrão robusto à heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da variância estimada do coeficiente.","formula":"ep = √V_jj","terms":[{"symbol":"V_jj","value":0.0027282612863200133,"unit":"","note":"diagonal da matriz de covariância"}],"result":0.05223276066148537,"unit":""},{"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confiança: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor crítico da distribuição t de Student com 2998 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padrão.","formula":"IC = β ± c · ep","terms":[{"symbol":"β","value":0.4644976800197844,"unit":"","note":""},{"symbol":"c","value":1.9607555832642805,"unit":"","note":"quantil 0.975"},{"symbol":"ep","value":0.05223276066148537,"unit":"","note":""}],"result":null,"unit":""}],"note_pt":""}}],"diagnostics":[{"name":"first_stage_F.anos_estudo","value":450.5838152185307,"flag":false,"note":"Wald F of the excluded instruments in the first stage for anos_estudo (heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1))"},{"name":"partial_r2.anos_estudo","value":0.1237083208513704,"flag":false,"note":"share of the variation the instruments explain beyond the controls"},{"name":"weak_instrument","value":false,"flag":false,"note":"every first-stage F is at least 10"},{"name":"n_obs","value":3000,"flag":false,"note":""},{"name":"se_type","value":"HC1","flag":false,"note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)"},{"name":"n_clusters","value":null,"flag":false,"note":"errors not clustered"}],"tables":{"coefficients":[{"term":"Intercept","coef":0.7019316166899081,"se":0.4158215737200596,"t":1.6880596415674771,"p":0.09150378882415945,"ci_low":-0.11339285562343837,"ci_high":1.5172560890032547},{"term":"anos_estudo","coef":0.4644976800197844,"se":0.05223276066148537,"t":8.892841851307487,"p":1.0074032770623122e-18,"ci_low":0.3620820029234701,"ci_high":0.5669133571160987}],"first_stage":[{"endog":"anos_estudo","instrument":"distancia_escola","coef":-0.5248903261586516,"se":0.024727532122282188,"t":-21.226959631999367,"p":2.828369541561597e-93,"ci_low":-0.5733749728277633,"ci_high":-0.47640567948954}],"reduced_form":[{"instrument":"distancia_escola","coef":-0.2438103387655225,"se":0.034608994413665606,"t":-7.044710281130048,"p":2.2956996601149614e-12,"ci_low":-0.31167011779327963,"ci_high":-0.17595055973776536}]},"datasets":{},"warnings":[],"assumptions":["the instruments affect the outcome only through the endogenous regressors (exclusion restriction)","the instruments are as good as randomly assigned given the controls","errors are independent across observations; their variance may differ"],"notes":""},"outputs":null,"output_digest":"b033785583f7faa79a48bbb6fed5dde4e4bfc269051fb66461d76fe1365c9041","params_versions":[],"sources":[],"started_at":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.787864Z","duration_ms":35.93433415517211,"error":null,"decided_by":"model","rationale":"Escolaridade endógena; a distância à escola desloca o estudo sem efeito direto: MQ2E.","cached":false,"informed_by":[],"model":null,"prompt":null,"response":null,"tokens_in":null,"tokens_out":null,"meta":{"turn_id":"call_eecf7d3c","llm_name":"infer__iv_2sls","vendor_id":"script_1","result_for_model_ref":"273eb4a79c112ba8ba72ba191d99b6d456698a9bfa90b773821ec83947c97a29"}}
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