{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"dados":{"description_shown":"Uma linha por munic\u00edpio e ano. municipio: c\u00f3digo do munic\u00edpio; ano: ano da elei\u00e7\u00e3o; doacoes: doa\u00e7\u00f5es de campanha recebidas pelo partido no munic\u00edpio (R$ por eleitor); votos: parcela dos votos obtida pelo partido no munic\u00edpio.","file_sha256":null,"frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Os munic\u00edpios que recebem mais doa\u00e7\u00f5es de campanha d\u00e3o menos votos ao partido? Temos 10 anos de dados por munic\u00edpio e queremos saber o que acontece com os votos quando as doa\u00e7\u00f5es aumentam dentro de um mesmo munic\u00edpio ao longo do tempo.","question_sha256":"c3d30f2f5da7fad51c4006288d00927f8c23dee79715771e3994ef96b8b692e2","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","task_sha256":"faaa7b0b648ca91f3d268ca1b7876affb67612729ee8242ff9c7ebcc72681b03","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.172566Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_1bcf82ae","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["2077a02b6d5f63a9bdda9f4baaba02344a9217638339130f1b9ab8328dedd2e5"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"b5186f2df24a49ec953887703b4926dc1451a0b98d0c48cc404f050aa21aa552","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Mesmos munic\u00edpios ao longo do tempo, diferen\u00e7as fixas entre eles: efeitos fixos.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"dataset":"dados","unit":"municipio","x":["doacoes"],"y":"votos"},"llm_name":"infer__fe","tool_id":"infer.fe","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.172566Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"cluster":null,"dataset":"dados","level":0.95,"time":null,"unit":"municipio","x":["doacoes"],"y":"votos"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_7765e16d","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"dados":"cf5d965ff92fae83828eb9be5b66b5a5d5e821df6dc978c0ef5b6c712cf3bf33"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":46.79120914079249,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"60b79c9f8d537bd25d11fdb9093fcc4f791eab58afc7e21a250a1c350524d5a6","llm_name":"infer__fe","output_digest":"f4d5fceab3eaeffa5325607011460c8c3c1da3eaa02e51d04b5f3110a244984a","rationale":"Mesmos munic\u00edpios ao longo do tempo, diferen\u00e7as fixas entre eles: efeitos fixos.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["unobserved differences between units are constant over time","the regressors are strictly exogenous","errors are independent across clusters of 'municipio' and may be correlated within them"],"call_id":"call_7765e16d","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"n_units","note":"","value":100},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":1000},{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"parameters of the equivalent dummy regression (unit means included)","value":101},{"flag":false,"name":"r2_within","note":"","value":0.9625546029073494},{"flag":false,"name":"within_sd.doacoes","note":"SD of the regressor after removing unit means: the variation the estimate uses","value":2.8345650699813856},{"flag":true,"name":"sign_flip","note":"pooled and within slopes have opposite signs for ['doacoes']: units with more of the regressor differ for other reasons (Simpson's paradox); the pooled slope is confounded","value":true},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"cluster-robust standard errors (CR1) by 'municipio'","value":"cluster"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_clusters","note":"100 clusters of 'municipio'","value":100}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.017225609362976867,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.016765186168091334,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.0169953977655341,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"unidades","unit":"","value":100.0},{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":1000.0},{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"par\u00e2metros, m\u00e9dias das unidades inclu\u00eddas","value":101.0}],"text_pt":"Coeficiente de doacoes na regress\u00e3o within: votos e doacoes menos a m\u00e9dia de cada municipio; igual \u00e0 regress\u00e3o com uma dummy por unidade.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.00011602138428396547,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":1.346096161116759e-08}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto por conglomerado (CR1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03b2 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b2","unit":"","value":0.0169953977655341},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.9842169515864172},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.00011602138428396547}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o t de Student com 99 graus de liberdade vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"coef.doacoes","label":"Within-unit effect of doacoes on votos","se":0.00011602138428396547,"unit":"","value":0.0169953977655341}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"pooled_vs_within":[{"pooled":-0.016973223277146295,"pooled_se":0.0006162720000838983,"regressor":"doacoes","sd":8.43302990291063,"within":0.0169953977655341,"within_sd":2.8345650699813856,"within_se":0.00011602138428396547}]},"tool":"infer.fe","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"adf057c7f548d6c8b887b939a0a64d4803b684e401276384835d04d2fbc19e6e","result_sha256":"432491994927ae48a40e5beb1353734e71770f55a6d59e0d4dbcd06b28d341ee","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.175956Z","tool_id":"infer.fe","turn_id":"call_1bcf82ae"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_b0957a1c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["2077a02b6d5f63a9bdda9f4baaba02344a9217638339130f1b9ab8328dedd2e5","7e7a6c99df1efd416fe2417f9ed6d498dd18202ace3dc76d2767b8b821fc7a83","a8329bbf2673090c12dc55a7b267d3df5d40c8e91540b1fd2a7331bdeb834328"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"b5186f2df24a49ec953887703b4926dc1451a0b98d0c48cc404f050aa21aa552","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.fe): coef.doacoes = 0,01700.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_7765e16d:coef.doacoes"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":3,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.222902Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_4704f812","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,01700"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":4,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227080Z","turn_id":"call_b0957a1c","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.fe): coef.doacoes = 0,01700.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_7765e16d","ci_high":0.017225609362976867,"ci_low":0.016765186168091334,"formatted":0.0169953977655341,"key":"coef.doacoes","ref":"call_7765e16d:coef.doacoes","se":0.00011602138428396547,"tool_id":"infer.fe","unit":"","value":0.0169953977655341},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_7765e16d:coef.doacoes"],"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of infer.fe","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_7765e16d","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":6,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0 call(s) of infer.ols","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_not_called","observed":0,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":7,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"tool_not_called(infer.ols): ok | answer_cites(infer.fe): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"tool_not_called","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.ols","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null},{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.fe","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":0,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":8,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"infer.fe.unit = ['municipio']","expected":"municipio","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":["municipio"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_7765e16d","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":9,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":4,"detail":"0.01699539777 vs 0.017","expected":0.017,"failure_class":null,"kind":"figure_close","observed":0.0169953977655341,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":0.00046408553713586187,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_7765e16d","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":10,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":5,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":11,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":6,"detail":"answer_cites(infer.fe): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.fe","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":["call_7765e16d:coef.doacoes"],"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_7765e16d","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":12,"task_id":"tool_selection.panel_simpson.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.227293Z"}