{"attempt":1,"datasets":{},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Queremos resumir a evid\u00eancia sobre o efeito de creches p\u00fablicas na participa\u00e7\u00e3o das m\u00e3es no mercado de trabalho, em pontos percentuais. Os estudos independentes que encontramos s\u00e3o:\n- Estudo A (2008): 3,6 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,1)\n- Estudo B (2010): 3,4 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,1)\n- Estudo C (2013): 4,1 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,5)\n- Estudo D (2014): 7,2 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,2)\n- Estudo E (2017): 6,3 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,3)\n- Estudo F (2023): 5,2 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,1)\nQual o efeito combinado?","question_sha256":"e3561f72222c8827c7f89c3a4dd6647dc2f5bfe311b2d1fe692403120934f742","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1001","task_sha256":"9447ad399e11ee9e7743bc421d1659aa1a38fc22768872f96a9bf8fe6bb2f0e3","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.492692Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_276b8b8d","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["d88ae128737298c259e66a0ee7b842c16ecfbfa847d7525d3d9c1bc7a07a52cf"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5ec81d84347bfcd291f77c36ebef99cc5836d341cbb25f78c669beedae0dcf8d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Estudos independentes do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"estimates":[{"estimate":3.6,"id":"e1","se":1.1,"study_id":"A"},{"estimate":3.4,"id":"e2","se":1.1,"study_id":"B"},{"estimate":4.1,"id":"e3","se":1.5,"study_id":"C"},{"estimate":7.2,"id":"e4","se":2.2,"study_id":"D"},{"estimate":6.3,"id":"e5","se":2.3,"study_id":"E"},{"estimate":5.2,"id":"e6","se":2.1,"study_id":"F"}],"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1001","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.492692Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"estimates":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":3.6,"id":"e1","se":1.1,"study_id":"A"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":3.4,"id":"e2","se":1.1,"study_id":"B"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":4.1,"id":"e3","se":1.5,"study_id":"C"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":7.2,"id":"e4","se":2.2,"study_id":"D"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":6.3,"id":"e5","se":2.3,"study_id":"E"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":5.2,"id":"e6","se":2.1,"study_id":"F"}],"level":0.95,"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_e04669fc","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":0.2845420967787504,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"267ead3508e2a7bd78ccacb378373a93ba5c8ecf83fa3c711ae4991b6847c41d","llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","output_digest":"cf2af066fb59bf934578277289d2f20f2e1248d67ebc050e1880a50c8cfda7f6","rationale":"Estudos independentes do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["every estimate measures the same effect in 'pontos percentuais'","each study contributes one independent estimate"],"call_id":"call_e04669fc","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"independent studies","value":6},{"flag":false,"name":"tau2","note":"between-study variance, (pontos percentuais)\u00b2","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"i2","note":"% of the spread that is between studies","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"q","note":"Cochran's Q","value":3.7501489909304366},{"flag":false,"name":"n_se_from_interval","note":"standard errors taken from published intervals","value":0}],"figures":[{"ci_high":5.4039378941074,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":3.0270196525827435,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"w_1 = 1 / ep_1\u00b2 ; w_2 = 1 / ep_2\u00b2 ; w_3 = 1 / ep_3\u00b2 ; w_4 = 1 / ep_4\u00b2 ; w_5 = 1 / ep_5\u00b2 ; w_6 = 1 / ep_6\u00b2","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"A (e1)","symbol":"y_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.6},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.1},{"note":"","symbol":"w_1","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"B (e2)","symbol":"y_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.4},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.1},{"note":"","symbol":"w_2","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"C (e3)","symbol":"y_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":4.1},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.5},{"note":"","symbol":"w_3","unit":"","value":0.4444444444444444},{"note":"D (e4)","symbol":"y_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":7.2},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.2},{"note":"","symbol":"w_4","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"E (e5)","symbol":"y_5","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":6.3},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_5","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.3},{"note":"","symbol":"w_5","unit":"","value":0.18903591682419663},{"note":"F (e6)","symbol":"y_6","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":5.2},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_6","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.1},{"note":"","symbol":"w_6","unit":"","value":0.22675736961451246}],"text_pt":"Cada um dos 6 estudos entra com uma estimativa y e o seu erro-padr\u00e3o ep (derivado do intervalo publicado, ao n\u00edvel que o estudo declara, quando o erro-padr\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 publicado); o peso de efeitos fixos \u00e9 o inverso da vari\u00e2ncia.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u0233_F = (w_1\u00b7y_1 + w_2\u00b7y_2 + w_3\u00b7y_3 + w_4\u00b7y_4 + w_5\u00b7y_5 + w_6\u00b7y_6) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6)","result":4.215478773345072,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos pondera cada estudo pela sua precis\u00e3o.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"Q = w_1\u00b7(y_1 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_2\u00b7(y_2 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_3\u00b7(y_3 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_4\u00b7(y_4 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_5\u00b7(y_5 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_6\u00b7(y_6 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2","result":3.7501489909304366,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A estat\u00edstica Q mede quanto os estudos discordam da m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos al\u00e9m do acaso.","unit":""},{"formula":"C = (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6) \u2212 (w_1\u00b2 + w_2\u00b2 + w_3\u00b2 + w_4\u00b2 + w_5\u00b2 + w_6\u00b2) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6)","result":2.097109391489909,"terms":[],"text_pt":"C \u00e9 a constante de escala de DerSimonian e Laird.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u03c4\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / C)","result":0.0,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"estudos","value":6.0}],"text_pt":"A vari\u00e2ncia entre estudos \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e9 zero quando Q n\u00e3o excede k \u2212 1, o que o acaso sozinho produziria.","unit":"(pontos percentuais)\u00b2"},{"formula":"I\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / Q) \u00d7 100","result":0.0,"terms":[],"text_pt":"I\u00b2 \u00e9 a parcela da dispers\u00e3o observada que vem da varia\u00e7\u00e3o entre estudos, n\u00e3o do acaso.","unit":"%"},{"formula":"w*_1 = 1 / (ep_1\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_2 = 1 / (ep_2\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_3 = 1 / (ep_3\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_4 = 1 / (ep_4\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_5 = 1 / (ep_5\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_6 = 1 / (ep_6\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"w*_1","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_2","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_3","unit":"","value":0.4444444444444444},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_4","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_5","unit":"","value":0.18903591682419663},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_6","unit":"","value":0.22675736961451246}],"text_pt":"Os pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios somam \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e0 vari\u00e2ncia de cada estudo, o que aproxima os pesos entre si quando os estudos discordam.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep(\u0233) = \u221a(1 / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4 + w*_5 + w*_6))","result":0.606367836417782,"terms":[],"text_pt":"O erro-padr\u00e3o da m\u00e9dia agrupada vem da soma dos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"\u0233 = (w*_1\u00b7y_1 + w*_2\u00b7y_2 + w*_3\u00b7y_3 + w*_4\u00b7y_4 + w*_5\u00b7y_5 + w*_6\u00b7y_6) / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4 + w*_5 + w*_6)","result":4.215478773345072,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia agrupada \u00e9 a m\u00e9dia das estimativas ponderada pelos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"IC95 = \u0233 \u00b1 z\u00b7ep(\u0233)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"quantil 0.975 da normal padr\u00e3o","symbol":"z","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054}],"text_pt":"O intervalo de 95% usa o valor cr\u00edtico da normal.","unit":""}]},"key":"pooled","label":"Random-effects pooled estimate (DerSimonian\u2013Laird) over 6 studies","se":0.606367836417782,"unit":"pontos percentuais","value":4.215478773345072}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"studies":[{"estimate":3.6,"id":"e1","se":1.1,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"A","weight_fixed":0.8264462809917354,"weight_pct":30.3869382679324,"weight_random":0.8264462809917354},{"estimate":3.4,"id":"e2","se":1.1,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"B","weight_fixed":0.8264462809917354,"weight_pct":30.3869382679324,"weight_random":0.8264462809917354},{"estimate":4.1,"id":"e3","se":1.5,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"C","weight_fixed":0.4444444444444444,"weight_pct":16.341420135199204,"weight_random":0.4444444444444444},{"estimate":7.2,"id":"e4","se":2.2,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"D","weight_fixed":0.20661157024793386,"weight_pct":7.5967345669831,"weight_random":0.20661157024793386},{"estimate":6.3,"id":"e5","se":2.3,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"E","weight_fixed":0.18903591682419663,"weight_pct":6.95050950930023,"weight_random":0.18903591682419663},{"estimate":5.2,"id":"e6","se":2.1,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"F","weight_fixed":0.22675736961451246,"weight_pct":8.337459252652655,"weight_random":0.22675736961451246}]},"tool":"evidence.pool_dl","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"670ad4cda1beee1b893f508624b7721a7c1016b730367ca953ebb3d3e080bfa9","result_sha256":"1bf516672db9a23451b55774487c9abe21f7bee97845286efdfde10dc2f071e7","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1001","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:51.500820Z","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","turn_id":"call_276b8b8d"}
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