{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"dados":{"description_shown":"Uma linha por partido numa elei\u00e7\u00e3o municipal. margem: margem de votos do partido (positiva quando venceu, negativa quando perdeu; zero \u00e9 o empate); vencedor: 1 se o partido venceu a elei\u00e7\u00e3o; reeleito: \u00edndice de desempenho do partido na elei\u00e7\u00e3o seguinte (maior \u00e9 melhor).","file_sha256":null,"frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"H\u00e1 suspeita de que partidos que perderiam por pouco conseguiram virar o resultado na apura\u00e7\u00e3o. A compara\u00e7\u00e3o entre quem venceu e quem perdeu por pouco ainda \u00e9 confi\u00e1vel?","question_sha256":"174b6214a4158bed12d5d9f15acf2e39aa569a6fe9584476d522223e4a349ba6","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","task_sha256":"ba37753ac6b8896f867d057163699e2bce51c5b0ba5384247a68d861f890b0da","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.929085Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_bd725e01","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["58364449330986998fd65c1e996ea7be483919489579e656e0d2a7a7ad59a9df"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"214a96872f49b423163aeaf121ab6322c560f869236bb2f425a97296873cbdc2","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Suspeita de manipula\u00e7\u00e3o na apura\u00e7\u00e3o: teste de densidade da margem em zero.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"llm_name":"infer__density_test","tool_id":"infer.density_test","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.929085Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":null,"bin_size":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_f7455f21","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"dados":"dd39815015172cca4c13818fb6a38f80241893e3c3eaadb32f5dea1fcec5f586"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":15.064874896779656,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"d1c767aca985adcc3fd02a9a51446406927af28d60a6b96e5c1b4bf6e6d90a01","llm_name":"infer__density_test","output_digest":"118b2578787ba15b5a66046df0eee8c89bbfbbbe54a96e447cd22be609c24f25","rationale":"Suspeita de manipula\u00e7\u00e3o na apura\u00e7\u00e3o: teste de densidade da margem em zero.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["without sorting, a unit within \u00b10.11 of the cutoff is as likely to lie above it as below it (the density is close to flat across the window)"],"call_id":"call_f7455f21","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"method","note":"McCrary's \u03b8 is undefined here; exact binomial test of the counts near the cutoff","value":"binomial"},{"flag":true,"name":"manipulation","note":"the counts on the two sides of the cutoff differ (p < 0.05): units sort around the threshold and an RD estimate is not credible as it stands","value":true},{"flag":false,"name":"window","note":"half-width of the count window: half the bandwidth","value":0.10978174016453399},{"flag":false,"name":"n_below","note":"","value":45},{"flag":false,"name":"n_above","note":"","value":298},{"flag":true,"name":"f_left","note":"smoothed density just below the cutoff","value":-0.037090802964061316},{"flag":false,"name":"f_right","note":"smoothed density just above the cutoff","value":1.1801593382989788},{"flag":false,"name":"bin_size","note":"","value":0.020945716288640455},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"McCrary smoothing bandwidth","value":0.21956348032906797},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":3000}],"figures":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":6.563442385088902e-47,"terms":[{"note":"abaixo do limiar","symbol":"n\u208b","unit":"unidades","value":45.0},{"note":"no limiar ou acima","symbol":"n\u208a","unit":"unidades","value":298.0}],"text_pt":"Teste binomial exato: sem manipula\u00e7\u00e3o, cada unidade da janela est\u00e1 acima do limiar com probabilidade 1/2.","unit":"probabilidade"}]},"key":"p_value","label":"p-value of equal counts just below and just above the cutoff (exact binomial test within \u00b10.11)","se":null,"unit":"probability","value":6.563442385088902e-47},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"s = n\u208a / (n\u208b + n\u208a)","result":0.8688046647230321,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n\u208a","unit":"unidades","value":298.0},{"note":"","symbol":"n\u208b","unit":"unidades","value":45.0}],"text_pt":"Parcela das unidades da janela que est\u00e3o no limiar ou acima dele.","unit":"parcela"}]},"key":"share_above","label":"Share of the units within \u00b10.11 of the cutoff that lie at or above it","se":null,"unit":"share","value":0.8688046647230321}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{},"tool":"infer.density_test","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["McCrary's \u03b8 is undefined: the smoothed density just below the cutoff is not positive, so units are missing from that side \u2014 itself a sign of sorting. The p-value is an exact binomial test of the counts within \u00b10.11 of the cutoff instead."]},"result_for_model_ref":"c402c34ffed20a4e88c8f2586e90ba5e6a25b65aafd6fd46e8a817356ea3f8dc","result_sha256":"69625f4df39929ec440f85cd9dd83a7ac4adc84901aae171fca83ee81c14732d","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.932270Z","tool_id":"infer.density_test","turn_id":"call_bd725e01"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_ee3308e2","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["58364449330986998fd65c1e996ea7be483919489579e656e0d2a7a7ad59a9df","68edc65137fd297a43935248b0082b5151e5bad3ab5ac9586ebf74d94019851f","33bd6e7c99cc042484d2984c1f017ecf8da5bb01f09f3d8df841a72c61eec788"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"214a96872f49b423163aeaf121ab6322c560f869236bb2f425a97296873cbdc2","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.density_test): p_value = 0,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000006563. O teste de densidade indica manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da margem de votos perto de zero: a compara\u00e7\u00e3o entre quem venceu e quem perdeu por pouco n\u00e3o \u00e9 confi\u00e1vel.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_f7455f21:p_value"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":3,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.947456Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_8cd2c7db","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000006563"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":4,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949003Z","turn_id":"call_ee3308e2","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.density_test): p_value = 0,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000006563. O teste de densidade indica manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da margem de votos perto de zero: a compara\u00e7\u00e3o entre quem venceu e quem perdeu por pouco n\u00e3o \u00e9 confi\u00e1vel.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_f7455f21:p_value"],"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of infer.density_test","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_f7455f21","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":6,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"infer.density_test.running = ['margem']","expected":"margem","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":["margem"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_f7455f21","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":7,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"infer.density_test.cutoff = [0.0]","expected":0.0,"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":[0.0],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_f7455f21","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":8,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"figure_close(infer.density_test:p_value): ok | diagnostic(infer.density_test:p_value): no diagnostic 'p_value'","expected":[{"abs_tol":0.05,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":"p_value","kind":"figure_close","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.density_test","value":0.0,"weight":1.0,"where":null},{"abs_tol":0.05,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":"p_value","kind":"diagnostic","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.density_test","value":0.0,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":6.563442385088902e-47,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_f7455f21","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":9,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":4,"detail":"found ['manipul']","expected":["manipul","aglomer","acumul","ac\u00famul","amontoa","bunching","sorting","autossele","auto-sele","salto na densidade","descontinuidade na densidade"],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_contains","observed":["manipul"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":10,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":5,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":11,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":6,"detail":"answer_cites(infer.density_test): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.density_test","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":["call_f7455f21:p_value"],"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_f7455f21","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":12,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.949191Z"}