{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"dados":{"description_shown":"Uma linha por partido numa elei\u00e7\u00e3o municipal. margem: margem de votos do partido (positiva quando venceu, negativa quando perdeu; zero \u00e9 o empate); vencedor: 1 se o partido venceu a elei\u00e7\u00e3o; reeleito: \u00edndice de desempenho do partido na elei\u00e7\u00e3o seguinte (maior \u00e9 melhor).","file_sha256":null,"frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Queremos saber se ganhar a elei\u00e7\u00e3o para prefeito ajuda o partido na elei\u00e7\u00e3o seguinte. Comparar vencedores e perdedores mistura partidos fortes e fracos, mas nas disputas muito apertadas o resultado \u00e9 quase um cara ou coroa. Qual o efeito de vencer sobre o desempenho do partido na elei\u00e7\u00e3o seguinte?","question_sha256":"624339e1d3cd21290cf582f75b2157848374922f9a9d5cf776c29e4576d32d2d","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","task_sha256":"a031a48881a12c96df97b56de625506c3bb3ca5bdf027940f6e1525993438ce9","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.844646Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_40af6050","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["c6022c2ac2aee94ec910326bab666e7396b40e54fb6fdbbaa22f595921f781bd"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"efa6c469c9359a70e1169b5d3588b903b76bac1a05d1331ef193a0cec4586f0d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"O tratamento muda quando a margem cruza zero: regress\u00e3o descont\u00ednua.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem","y":"reeleito"},"llm_name":"infer__rdd","tool_id":"infer.rdd","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.844646Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":null,"cluster":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","kernel":"triangular","level":0.95,"polynomial":1,"running":"margem","subset":null,"y":"reeleito"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_2091fd88","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"dados":"e0452c0075926fdd8fa4c8918ff7f8012b37ed10f466a34e8a8b0f86e1282c18"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":56.48541706614196,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"545d1b7dd097bdbb2f30f0d4ec33c70e73661656b2af8c2b99bcf20b12c6ae9f","llm_name":"infer__rdd","output_digest":"ab8b77fb8deacad939474fc58abdca6210971c664babab49c4c445d687c1aa21","rationale":"O tratamento muda quando a margem cruza zero: regress\u00e3o descont\u00ednua.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["units cannot precisely control the running variable around the cutoff","every other determinant of the outcome is continuous at the cutoff"],"call_id":"call_2091fd88","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"half-width of the window around the cutoff (Imbens\u2013Kalyanaraman)","value":0.8417160143545752},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth_method","note":"","value":"IK"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_left","note":"observations with positive weight below the cutoff","value":1658},{"flag":false,"name":"n_right","note":"observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff","value":1700},{"flag":false,"name":"kernel","note":"","value":"triangular"},{"flag":false,"name":"polynomial","note":"","value":1},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth_sensitive","note":"the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"rows used to choose the bandwidth","value":4000},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.2831425602920665,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.19331757028190283,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.23823006528698468,"terms":[{"note":"janela (Imbens\u2013Kalyanaraman)","symbol":"h","unit":"","value":0.8417160143545752},{"note":"","symbol":"n_esq","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es abaixo do limiar","value":1658.0},{"note":"","symbol":"n_dir","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es acima do limiar","value":1700.0}],"text_pt":"Ajuste linear ponderado (kernel triangular) de cada lado do limiar, com janela h (Imbens\u2013Kalyanaraman); o efeito \u00e9 a diferen\u00e7a entre os dois ajustes no limiar.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.02291495933565407,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0005250953613546796}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03c4 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03c4","unit":"","value":0.23823006528698468},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.02291495933565407}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o normal vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"effect","label":"Jump in reeleito at the cutoff of margem","se":0.02291495933565407,"unit":"","value":0.23823006528698468}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"sensitivity":[{"bandwidth":0.4208580071772876,"ci_high":0.2997314742205995,"ci_low":0.17569667141207024,"estimate":0.23771407281633486,"multiplier":0.5,"n_left":867,"n_right":828,"se":0.031642112759953746},{"bandwidth":0.8417160143545752,"ci_high":0.2831425602920665,"ci_low":0.19331757028190283,"estimate":0.23823006528698468,"multiplier":1.0,"n_left":1658,"n_right":1700,"se":0.02291495933565407},{"bandwidth":1.6834320287091504,"ci_high":0.27714785383654744,"ci_low":0.20026405721439394,"estimate":0.2387059555254707,"multiplier":2.0,"n_left":1977,"n_right":2023,"se":0.019613573828040486}]},"tool":"infer.rdd","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"eec531230317465e91f8c4ed6ce38451ca4f65902e0d7b37f440bcd87de076c9","result_sha256":"96eda32de4f0eff09a8464d6bb96774022199acfb96b67222bfe99cd02198577","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.846823Z","tool_id":"infer.rdd","turn_id":"call_40af6050"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_39d806b0","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["c6022c2ac2aee94ec910326bab666e7396b40e54fb6fdbbaa22f595921f781bd","4223adf0dcd9a235f523857130eebf59a39631ce4c844107f20fd303f2680eb1","5e9bd3c6754663b72967ba8d8d94c2b6b82e1ec15b346eda89a50464e0e8b225"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"efa6c469c9359a70e1169b5d3588b903b76bac1a05d1331ef193a0cec4586f0d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Verifico se h\u00e1 manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da margem perto de zero.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"llm_name":"infer__density_test","tool_id":"infer.density_test","vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":3,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.903463Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":null,"bin_size":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_ce3acf10","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"dados":"e0452c0075926fdd8fa4c8918ff7f8012b37ed10f466a34e8a8b0f86e1282c18"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":1.9818339496850967,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"d1c767aca985adcc3fd02a9a51446406927af28d60a6b96e5c1b4bf6e6d90a01","llm_name":"infer__density_test","output_digest":"aab94ec1517e7864cc6801f83b75a6bcd77d247d8c5fcf7535326b99ce307774","rationale":"Verifico se h\u00e1 manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da margem perto de zero.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":[],"call_id":"call_ce3acf10","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"method","note":"log difference of the smoothed densities at the cutoff","value":"mccrary"},{"flag":false,"name":"manipulation","note":"no evidence of a density jump at the cutoff (p \u2265 0.05)","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"bin_size","note":"default bin width","value":0.01823082217635964},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"default smoothing bandwidth","value":0.4393021829357678},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":4000},{"flag":false,"name":"f_left","note":"estimated density just below the cutoff","value":0.48457911556967337},{"flag":false,"name":"f_right","note":"estimated density just above the cutoff","value":0.46758119197048814},{"flag":false,"name":"n_distinct","note":"","value":4000}],"figures":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b8 = ln(f\u208a) \u2212 ln(f\u208b)","result":-0.03570770491585651,"terms":[{"note":"acima do limiar","symbol":"f\u208a","unit":"","value":0.46758119197048814},{"note":"abaixo do limiar","symbol":"f\u208b","unit":"","value":0.48457911556967337}],"text_pt":"Densidades estimadas no limiar, por ajuste linear local das alturas do histograma de cada lado.","unit":"log"}]},"key":"theta","label":"Log difference of the density of margem just above and just below the cutoff","se":0.10714036353134751,"unit":"log points","value":-0.03570770491585651},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"ep = \u221a((1 / (n \u00b7 h)) \u00b7 (24 / 5) \u00b7 (1 / f\u208a + 1 / f\u208b))","result":0.10714036353134751,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":4000.0},{"note":"","symbol":"h","unit":"","value":0.4393021829357678},{"note":"","symbol":"f\u208a","unit":"","value":0.46758119197048814},{"note":"","symbol":"f\u208b","unit":"","value":0.48457911556967337}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o assint\u00f3tico de McCrary (2008).","unit":""}]},"key":"se","label":"Standard error of theta","se":null,"unit":"log points","value":0.10714036353134751},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"z = \u03b8 / ep","result":-0.3332796692015052,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b8","unit":"","value":-0.03570770491585651},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.10714036353134751}],"text_pt":"Estat\u00edstica z: \u03b8 dividido pelo seu erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"z","label":"z statistic of theta","se":null,"unit":"","value":-0.3332796692015052},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.738923184612339,"terms":[],"text_pt":"Probabilidade bilateral de uma normal padr\u00e3o exceder |z| em valor absoluto.","unit":"probabilidade"}]},"key":"p_value","label":"p-value of no density jump at the cutoff","se":null,"unit":"probability","value":0.738923184612339}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{},"tool":"infer.density_test","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"84f86c7eabd17b63dc049658628225969f2000bf932882d86c0609f13ad842f1","result_sha256":"7ca33b6ca9c3554f4af342ebddf686a9bdc56c08b9feebdb6990be52302d4f68","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":4,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.905138Z","tool_id":"infer.density_test","turn_id":"call_39d806b0"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_341c532a","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["c6022c2ac2aee94ec910326bab666e7396b40e54fb6fdbbaa22f595921f781bd","4223adf0dcd9a235f523857130eebf59a39631ce4c844107f20fd303f2680eb1","5e9bd3c6754663b72967ba8d8d94c2b6b82e1ec15b346eda89a50464e0e8b225","1c4b52d49cc4a93e267d91841b8a1bbe73b690af7ebbf95f83ee8904b9b480a9","7af97eb46ffac7a63cce75307721e83ebeec01569d3cf04a0d5120cd4491f218"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"efa6c469c9359a70e1169b5d3588b903b76bac1a05d1331ef193a0cec4586f0d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,2382.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_2091fd88:effect"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_3"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":5,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.907265Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_22e70413","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,2382"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":6,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908735Z","turn_id":"call_341c532a","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,2382.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_2091fd88","ci_high":0.2831425602920665,"ci_low":0.19331757028190283,"formatted":0.23823006528698468,"key":"effect","ref":"call_2091fd88:effect","se":0.02291495933565407,"tool_id":"infer.rdd","unit":"","value":0.23823006528698468},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_2091fd88:effect"],"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":7,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of infer.rdd","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_2091fd88","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":8,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0 call(s) of infer.ols","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_not_called","observed":0,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":9,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"tool_not_called(infer.ols): ok | answer_cites(infer.rdd): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"tool_not_called","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.ols","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null},{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.rdd","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":0,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":10,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"infer.rdd.running = ['margem']","expected":"margem","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":["margem"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_2091fd88","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":11,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":4,"detail":"infer.rdd.cutoff = [0.0]","expected":0.0,"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":[0.0],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_2091fd88","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":12,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":5,"detail":"0.2382300653 vs 0.28","expected":0.28,"failure_class":null,"kind":"figure_close","observed":0.23823006528698468,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":0.16107427030252208,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_2091fd88","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":13,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":6,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of infer.density_test","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_ce3acf10","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":14,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":7,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":15,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":8,"detail":"answer_cites(infer.rdd): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.rdd","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":["call_2091fd88:effect"],"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_2091fd88","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":16,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.908978Z"}
