{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"dados":{"description_shown":"Uma linha por partido numa elei\u00e7\u00e3o municipal. margem: margem de votos do partido (positiva quando venceu, negativa quando perdeu; zero \u00e9 o empate); vencedor: 1 se o partido venceu a elei\u00e7\u00e3o; reeleito: \u00edndice de desempenho do partido na elei\u00e7\u00e3o seguinte (maior \u00e9 melhor).","file_sha256":null,"frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"A base tem a margem de votos de cada partido numa elei\u00e7\u00e3o municipal e seu desempenho na elei\u00e7\u00e3o seguinte. Qual o efeito causal de ter vencido?","question_sha256":"97b1a14117b8bf64dd50d460c376f3b8d1104ee000f0b157a8138146da695c43","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","task_sha256":"074e3533c990116c525eb87936a9e9f6cf7be4a2bbde5c473852256a84adee2b","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.869892Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_4464f3d5","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["743d9acb2a3f89574480374cdaeb2aba01e5e424be8999e97375b0757f6b3e8c"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"efa6c469c9359a70e1169b5d3588b903b76bac1a05d1331ef193a0cec4586f0d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"O tratamento muda quando a margem cruza zero: regress\u00e3o descont\u00ednua.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem","y":"reeleito"},"llm_name":"infer__rdd","tool_id":"infer.rdd","vendor_id":"script_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.869892Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":null,"cluster":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","kernel":"triangular","level":0.95,"polynomial":1,"running":"margem","subset":null,"y":"reeleito"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_c549156f","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"dados":"3ff9833c2f66a8e17bfccd3178ddf81a7e9ced0120e31a4f5af4d2edbb351884"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":103.62454084679484,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"545d1b7dd097bdbb2f30f0d4ec33c70e73661656b2af8c2b99bcf20b12c6ae9f","llm_name":"infer__rdd","output_digest":"50098c2d1537e56a4c7051087d378ae1d6e8608f551d7f340fdbe969b1ca34e3","rationale":"O tratamento muda quando a margem cruza zero: regress\u00e3o descont\u00ednua.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["units cannot precisely control the running variable around the cutoff","every other determinant of the outcome is continuous at the cutoff"],"call_id":"call_c549156f","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"half-width of the window around the cutoff (Imbens\u2013Kalyanaraman)","value":0.7424061358702239},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth_method","note":"","value":"IK"},{"flag":false,"name":"n_left","note":"observations with positive weight below the cutoff","value":1464},{"flag":false,"name":"n_right","note":"observations with positive weight at or above the cutoff","value":1505},{"flag":false,"name":"kernel","note":"","value":"triangular"},{"flag":false,"name":"polynomial","note":"","value":1},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth_sensitive","note":"the estimates at half and double the bandwidth fall inside the main interval","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"rows used to choose the bandwidth","value":4000},{"flag":false,"name":"se_type","note":"heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors (HC1)","value":"HC1"}],"figures":[{"ci_high":0.3026574556739526,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.20307100793113148,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.252864231802542,"terms":[{"note":"janela (Imbens\u2013Kalyanaraman)","symbol":"h","unit":"","value":0.7424061358702239},{"note":"","symbol":"n_esq","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es abaixo do limiar","value":1464.0},{"note":"","symbol":"n_dir","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es acima do limiar","value":1505.0}],"text_pt":"Ajuste linear ponderado (kernel triangular) de cada lado do limiar, com janela h (Imbens\u2013Kalyanaraman); o efeito \u00e9 a diferen\u00e7a entre os dois ajustes no limiar.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep = \u221aV_jj","result":0.02540517288285558,"terms":[{"note":"diagonal da matriz de covari\u00e2ncia","symbol":"V_jj","unit":"","value":0.0006454228092077805}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o robusto \u00e0 heterocedasticidade (HC1): a raiz da vari\u00e2ncia estimada do coeficiente.","unit":""},{"formula":"IC = \u03c4 \u00b1 c \u00b7 ep","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03c4","unit":"","value":0.252864231802542},{"note":"quantil 0.975","symbol":"c","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.02540517288285558}],"text_pt":"Intervalo de 95% de confian\u00e7a: a estimativa mais ou menos o valor cr\u00edtico da distribui\u00e7\u00e3o normal vezes o erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"effect","label":"Jump in reeleito at the cutoff of margem","se":0.02540517288285558,"unit":"","value":0.252864231802542}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"sensitivity":[{"bandwidth":0.37120306793511193,"ci_high":0.30806398501890636,"ci_low":0.16590027330057727,"estimate":0.23698212915974182,"multiplier":0.5,"n_left":720,"n_right":790,"se":0.0362669194025243},{"bandwidth":0.7424061358702239,"ci_high":0.3026574556739526,"ci_low":0.20307100793113148,"estimate":0.252864231802542,"multiplier":1.0,"n_left":1464,"n_right":1505,"se":0.02540517288285558},{"bandwidth":1.4848122717404477,"ci_high":0.2974750435398669,"ci_low":0.21770368665799447,"estimate":0.2575893650989307,"multiplier":2.0,"n_left":2003,"n_right":1997,"se":0.020350209879135217}]},"tool":"infer.rdd","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"044bda8702fc3a76be178de1327dd819b9b0aaac2ebbc96ae6ba8407d1482416","result_sha256":"37c9cae99d2076416f6a3c8fc4e2bbe0a05fd79de8c7d6304668516772306976","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.872509Z","tool_id":"infer.rdd","turn_id":"call_4464f3d5"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_e8309701","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["743d9acb2a3f89574480374cdaeb2aba01e5e424be8999e97375b0757f6b3e8c","4223adf0dcd9a235f523857130eebf59a39631ce4c844107f20fd303f2680eb1","f263b8b989dd01456d7211b270daf07b8a63e387ac7c03d56a03b1339299cf84"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"efa6c469c9359a70e1169b5d3588b903b76bac1a05d1331ef193a0cec4586f0d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Verifico se h\u00e1 manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da margem perto de zero.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"llm_name":"infer__density_test","tool_id":"infer.density_test","vendor_id":"script_2"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":3,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.976299Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":null,"bin_size":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_d2dca01b","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"dados":"3ff9833c2f66a8e17bfccd3178ddf81a7e9ced0120e31a4f5af4d2edbb351884"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":10.352500015869737,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"d1c767aca985adcc3fd02a9a51446406927af28d60a6b96e5c1b4bf6e6d90a01","llm_name":"infer__density_test","output_digest":"5a27ffac067a5d77edbbad8cc6b21e365ce4c61c067c252c2d2c13d5948c425c","rationale":"Verifico se h\u00e1 manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da margem perto de zero.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":[],"call_id":"call_d2dca01b","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"method","note":"log difference of the smoothed densities at the cutoff","value":"mccrary"},{"flag":false,"name":"manipulation","note":"no evidence of a density jump at the cutoff (p \u2265 0.05)","value":false},{"flag":false,"name":"bin_size","note":"default bin width","value":0.018239204416392343},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"default smoothing bandwidth","value":0.35173577655881133},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":4000},{"flag":false,"name":"f_left","note":"estimated density just below the cutoff","value":0.4821351815885992},{"flag":false,"name":"f_right","note":"estimated density just above the cutoff","value":0.5086636028593636},{"flag":false,"name":"n_distinct","note":"","value":4000}],"figures":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b8 = ln(f\u208a) \u2212 ln(f\u208b)","result":0.053562365489385644,"terms":[{"note":"acima do limiar","symbol":"f\u208a","unit":"","value":0.5086636028593636},{"note":"abaixo do limiar","symbol":"f\u208b","unit":"","value":0.4821351815885992}],"text_pt":"Densidades estimadas no limiar, por ajuste linear local das alturas do histograma de cada lado.","unit":"log"}]},"key":"theta","label":"Log difference of the density of margem just above and just below the cutoff","se":0.11740195803529546,"unit":"log points","value":0.053562365489385644},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"ep = \u221a((1 / (n \u00b7 h)) \u00b7 (24 / 5) \u00b7 (1 / f\u208a + 1 / f\u208b))","result":0.11740195803529546,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":4000.0},{"note":"","symbol":"h","unit":"","value":0.35173577655881133},{"note":"","symbol":"f\u208a","unit":"","value":0.5086636028593636},{"note":"","symbol":"f\u208b","unit":"","value":0.4821351815885992}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o assint\u00f3tico de McCrary (2008).","unit":""}]},"key":"se","label":"Standard error of theta","se":null,"unit":"log points","value":0.11740195803529546},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"z = \u03b8 / ep","result":0.45623059773230334,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b8","unit":"","value":0.053562365489385644},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.11740195803529546}],"text_pt":"Estat\u00edstica z: \u03b8 dividido pelo seu erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"z","label":"z statistic of theta","se":null,"unit":"","value":0.45623059773230334},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":0.6482241648524483,"terms":[],"text_pt":"Probabilidade bilateral de uma normal padr\u00e3o exceder |z| em valor absoluto.","unit":"probabilidade"}]},"key":"p_value","label":"p-value of no density jump at the cutoff","se":null,"unit":"probability","value":0.6482241648524483}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{},"tool":"infer.density_test","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"ed9017c66e3b6b70e65eb274c1d784b878890cd1e414584311d3334e0885a420","result_sha256":"9f98b12c7aa2504d4dcb7a7de3994bdb670047b5793e57927ff7ba78ff151716","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":4,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.986450Z","tool_id":"infer.density_test","turn_id":"call_e8309701"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_e4f9ff07","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"reference","model_requested":"reference","provider":"scripted","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["743d9acb2a3f89574480374cdaeb2aba01e5e424be8999e97375b0757f6b3e8c","4223adf0dcd9a235f523857130eebf59a39631ce4c844107f20fd303f2680eb1","f263b8b989dd01456d7211b270daf07b8a63e387ac7c03d56a03b1339299cf84","1c4b52d49cc4a93e267d91841b8a1bbe73b690af7ebbf95f83ee8904b9b480a9","0df40207f6e48dfc51d853d8cef0581c894b839d7e77e5469fb91d777ba256b3"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"efa6c469c9359a70e1169b5d3588b903b76bac1a05d1331ef193a0cec4586f0d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,2529.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_c549156f:effect"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"script_3"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":5,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.996971Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_24452afb","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["0,2529"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":6,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999072Z","turn_id":"call_e4f9ff07","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,2529.","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_c549156f","ci_high":0.3026574556739526,"ci_low":0.20307100793113148,"formatted":0.252864231802542,"key":"effect","ref":"call_c549156f:effect","se":0.02540517288285558,"tool_id":"infer.rdd","unit":"","value":0.252864231802542},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_c549156f:effect"],"run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":7,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of infer.rdd","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_c549156f","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":8,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"0 call(s) of infer.ols","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_not_called","observed":0,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":9,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"tool_not_called(infer.ols): ok | answer_cites(infer.rdd): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"tool_not_called","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.ols","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null},{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.rdd","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":0,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":10,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"infer.rdd.running = ['margem']","expected":"margem","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":["margem"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_c549156f","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":11,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":4,"detail":"infer.rdd.cutoff = [0.0]","expected":0.0,"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":[0.0],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_c549156f","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":12,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":5,"detail":"0.2528642318 vs 0.25","expected":0.25,"failure_class":null,"kind":"figure_close","observed":0.252864231802542,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":0.175242450957479,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_c549156f","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":13,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":6,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of infer.density_test","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_d2dca01b","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":14,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":7,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":15,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":8,"detail":"answer_cites(infer.rdd): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.rdd","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":["call_c549156f:effect"],"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_c549156f","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171350Z-suite-tool_selection-scripted-900f27","seq":16,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_sharp.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:13:50.999332Z"}