{"attempt":1,"datasets":{},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Queremos resumir a evid\u00eancia sobre o efeito de creches p\u00fablicas na participa\u00e7\u00e3o das m\u00e3es no mercado de trabalho, em pontos percentuais. Os estudos independentes que encontramos s\u00e3o:\n- Estudo A (2008): 4,6 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,2)\n- Estudo B (2011): 1,8 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,1)\n- Estudo C (2012): 1,0 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,4)\n- Estudo D (2013): 1,9 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,0)\n- Estudo E (2017): 2,0 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,1)\n- Estudo F (2018): 3,1 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,0)\nQual o efeito combinado?","question_sha256":"18284fef0efbd8dde1a0603875da4d7216ffe374c0b33173785785f1b681b1e2","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1000","task_sha256":"836db5e1202f842698ad9134fc78f79b69b1eeced24442ed5947d48a772d4722","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.806309Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_b628a71c","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["073dcd1857aeb4f6d53f643138b6200db60db4ce1c9b8ad3a577bc0fe0397540"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5ec81d84347bfcd291f77c36ebef99cc5836d341cbb25f78c669beedae0dcf8d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"estimates":[{"estimate":4.6,"id":"e1","se":2.2,"study_id":"a"},{"estimate":1.8,"id":"e2","se":1.1,"study_id":"b"},{"estimate":1.0,"id":"e3","se":2.4,"study_id":"c"},{"estimate":1.9,"id":"e4","se":2.0,"study_id":"d"},{"estimate":2.0,"id":"e5","se":1.1,"study_id":"e"},{"estimate":3.1,"id":"e6","se":1.0,"study_id":"f"}],"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","vendor_id":"baseline_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.806309Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"estimates":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":4.6,"id":"e1","se":2.2,"study_id":"a"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":1.8,"id":"e2","se":1.1,"study_id":"b"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":1.0,"id":"e3","se":2.4,"study_id":"c"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":1.9,"id":"e4","se":2.0,"study_id":"d"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":2.0,"id":"e5","se":1.1,"study_id":"e"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":3.1,"id":"e6","se":1.0,"study_id":"f"}],"level":0.95,"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_9d562f6c","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":0.3009159117937088,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"1b8afd7e31ee58a956cf184cb328a47ee7ea6ff0a5364b9abed49ed7d0734dd6","llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","output_digest":"9d42728fa3a3ad9aa3226479720bd857440d838b8f51ec8ee262628ed5c4752b","rationale":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["every estimate measures the same effect in 'pontos percentuais'","each study contributes one independent estimate"],"call_id":"call_9d562f6c","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"independent studies","value":6},{"flag":false,"name":"tau2","note":"between-study variance, (pontos percentuais)\u00b2","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"i2","note":"% of the spread that is between studies","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"q","note":"Cochran's Q","value":2.32204356414259},{"flag":false,"name":"n_se_from_interval","note":"standard errors taken from published intervals","value":0}],"figures":[{"ci_high":3.469525245796792,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.3061342245292293,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"w_1 = 1 / ep_1\u00b2 ; w_2 = 1 / ep_2\u00b2 ; w_3 = 1 / ep_3\u00b2 ; w_4 = 1 / ep_4\u00b2 ; w_5 = 1 / ep_5\u00b2 ; w_6 = 1 / ep_6\u00b2","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"a (e1)","symbol":"y_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":4.6},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.2},{"note":"","symbol":"w_1","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"b (e2)","symbol":"y_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.8},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.1},{"note":"","symbol":"w_2","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"c (e3)","symbol":"y_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.0},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.4},{"note":"","symbol":"w_3","unit":"","value":0.1736111111111111},{"note":"d (e4)","symbol":"y_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.9},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.0},{"note":"","symbol":"w_4","unit":"","value":0.25},{"note":"e (e5)","symbol":"y_5","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.0},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_5","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.1},{"note":"","symbol":"w_5","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"f (e6)","symbol":"y_6","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.1},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_6","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.0},{"note":"","symbol":"w_6","unit":"","value":1.0}],"text_pt":"Cada um dos 6 estudos entra com uma estimativa y e o seu erro-padr\u00e3o ep (derivado do intervalo publicado, ao n\u00edvel que o estudo declara, quando o erro-padr\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 publicado); o peso de efeitos fixos \u00e9 o inverso da vari\u00e2ncia.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u0233_F = (w_1\u00b7y_1 + w_2\u00b7y_2 + w_3\u00b7y_3 + w_4\u00b7y_4 + w_5\u00b7y_5 + w_6\u00b7y_6) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6)","result":2.3878297351630104,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos pondera cada estudo pela sua precis\u00e3o.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"Q = w_1\u00b7(y_1 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_2\u00b7(y_2 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_3\u00b7(y_3 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_4\u00b7(y_4 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_5\u00b7(y_5 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_6\u00b7(y_6 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2","result":2.32204356414259,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A estat\u00edstica Q mede quanto os estudos discordam da m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos al\u00e9m do acaso.","unit":""},{"formula":"C = (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6) \u2212 (w_1\u00b2 + w_2\u00b2 + w_3\u00b2 + w_4\u00b2 + w_5\u00b2 + w_6\u00b2) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6)","result":2.521230300477982,"terms":[],"text_pt":"C \u00e9 a constante de escala de DerSimonian e Laird.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u03c4\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / C)","result":0.0,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"estudos","value":6.0}],"text_pt":"A vari\u00e2ncia entre estudos \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e9 zero quando Q n\u00e3o excede k \u2212 1, o que o acaso sozinho produziria.","unit":"(pontos percentuais)\u00b2"},{"formula":"I\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / Q) \u00d7 100","result":0.0,"terms":[],"text_pt":"I\u00b2 \u00e9 a parcela da dispers\u00e3o observada que vem da varia\u00e7\u00e3o entre estudos, n\u00e3o do acaso.","unit":"%"},{"formula":"w*_1 = 1 / (ep_1\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_2 = 1 / (ep_2\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_3 = 1 / (ep_3\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_4 = 1 / (ep_4\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_5 = 1 / (ep_5\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_6 = 1 / (ep_6\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"w*_1","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_2","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_3","unit":"","value":0.1736111111111111},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_4","unit":"","value":0.25},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_5","unit":"","value":0.8264462809917354},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_6","unit":"","value":1.0}],"text_pt":"Os pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios somam \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e0 vari\u00e2ncia de cada estudo, o que aproxima os pesos entre si quando os estudos discordam.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep(\u0233) = \u221a(1 / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4 + w*_5 + w*_6))","result":0.5518956058203403,"terms":[],"text_pt":"O erro-padr\u00e3o da m\u00e9dia agrupada vem da soma dos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"\u0233 = (w*_1\u00b7y_1 + w*_2\u00b7y_2 + w*_3\u00b7y_3 + w*_4\u00b7y_4 + w*_5\u00b7y_5 + w*_6\u00b7y_6) / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4 + w*_5 + w*_6)","result":2.3878297351630104,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia agrupada \u00e9 a m\u00e9dia das estimativas ponderada pelos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"IC95 = \u0233 \u00b1 z\u00b7ep(\u0233)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"quantil 0.975 da normal padr\u00e3o","symbol":"z","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054}],"text_pt":"O intervalo de 95% usa o valor cr\u00edtico da normal.","unit":""}]},"key":"pooled","label":"Random-effects pooled estimate (DerSimonian\u2013Laird) over 6 studies","se":0.5518956058203403,"unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.3878297351630104}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"studies":[{"estimate":4.6,"id":"e1","se":2.2,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"a","weight_fixed":0.20661157024793386,"weight_pct":6.293156192640503,"weight_random":0.20661157024793386},{"estimate":1.8,"id":"e2","se":1.1,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"b","weight_fixed":0.8264462809917354,"weight_pct":25.172624770562013,"weight_random":0.8264462809917354},{"estimate":1.0,"id":"e3","se":2.4,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"c","weight_fixed":0.1736111111111111,"weight_pct":5.287999300760423,"weight_random":0.1736111111111111},{"estimate":1.9,"id":"e4","se":2.0,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"d","weight_fixed":0.25,"weight_pct":7.61471899309501,"weight_random":0.25},{"estimate":2.0,"id":"e5","se":1.1,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"e","weight_fixed":0.8264462809917354,"weight_pct":25.172624770562013,"weight_random":0.8264462809917354},{"estimate":3.1,"id":"e6","se":1.0,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"f","weight_fixed":1.0,"weight_pct":30.45887597238004,"weight_random":1.0}]},"tool":"evidence.pool_dl","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"4bc8e67461cff7b8ea33392c169e80b166085dc8ce6ab45e1feb4e53bf869fb6","result_sha256":"b4cf891035e87bd70021d5ad765cb5127084907b9f219a38a605b66f86107cab","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.809006Z","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","turn_id":"call_b628a71c"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_532c19c3","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["073dcd1857aeb4f6d53f643138b6200db60db4ce1c9b8ad3a577bc0fe0397540","0cd116b0f77d276c95e86fabccd4a96b86ec4fe6dfab0ed438c82f2686866601","5338e4dfda54e8f029d7482c88b5e6432d8499c5f0e228248f57a5d829290006"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5ec81d84347bfcd291f77c36ebef99cc5836d341cbb25f78c669beedae0dcf8d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (evidence.pool_dl): pooled = 2,388 (IC 95%: 1,306 a 3,470).","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_9d562f6c:pooled"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":3,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.809501Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
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{"answer":"Estimativa (evidence.pool_dl): pooled = 2,388 (IC 95%: 1,306 a 3,470).","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_9d562f6c","ci_high":3.469525245796792,"ci_low":1.3061342245292293,"formatted":2.3878297351630104,"key":"pooled","ref":"call_9d562f6c:pooled","se":0.5518956058203403,"tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.3878297351630104},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_9d562f6c:pooled"],"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.811439Z"}
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{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":8,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.811439Z"}
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