{"attempt":1,"datasets":{},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Um vereador citou apenas o estudo com o maior efeito. Considerando todos os estudos abaixo, independentes entre si e medidos em pontos percentuais, qual o efeito m\u00e9dio?\n- Estudo A (2012): 3,5 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,2)\n- Estudo B (2016): 2,2 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,4)\n- Estudo C (2019): 3,9 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,7)\n- Estudo D (2021): 3,5 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,7)","question_sha256":"a7eeb5cf1b74843ce8a33c7dabbb68444708bf48f9b58230b301aa71cafc8265","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1002","task_sha256":"6e21c6fc7883b0ddf80820320237d31a1ff8b776aa4b023ff141b04eda24d598","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.836656Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_ed82cf4e","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["440398dd62a21bf7c9bfed1c785eed338a00e7e4874694ebdfee10b7e3740f40"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5ec81d84347bfcd291f77c36ebef99cc5836d341cbb25f78c669beedae0dcf8d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"estimates":[{"estimate":3.5,"id":"e1","se":2.2,"study_id":"a"},{"estimate":2.2,"id":"e2","se":2.4,"study_id":"b"},{"estimate":3.9,"id":"e3","se":1.7,"study_id":"c"},{"estimate":3.5,"id":"e4","se":1.7,"study_id":"d"}],"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","vendor_id":"baseline_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.836656Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"estimates":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":3.5,"id":"e1","se":2.2,"study_id":"a"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":2.2,"id":"e2","se":2.4,"study_id":"b"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":3.9,"id":"e3","se":1.7,"study_id":"c"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":3.5,"id":"e4","se":1.7,"study_id":"d"}],"level":0.95,"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_006f893d","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":0.24445797316730022,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"9fb285c4fc8adb7f546eb7dcff87d3d98ea04e73b41034afb15e845ff835e3af","llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","output_digest":"88c169a7ccd1218c49aaa3405681f9d7dd30d3cc72aa641ba55b5f1552490208","rationale":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["every estimate measures the same effect in 'pontos percentuais'","each study contributes one independent estimate"],"call_id":"call_006f893d","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"independent studies","value":4},{"flag":false,"name":"tau2","note":"between-study variance, (pontos percentuais)\u00b2","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"i2","note":"% of the spread that is between studies","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"q","note":"Cochran's Q","value":0.34166069570428587},{"flag":false,"name":"n_se_from_interval","note":"standard errors taken from published intervals","value":0}],"figures":[{"ci_high":5.3113635622014455,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.5258292870371306,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"w_1 = 1 / ep_1\u00b2 ; w_2 = 1 / ep_2\u00b2 ; w_3 = 1 / ep_3\u00b2 ; w_4 = 1 / ep_4\u00b2","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"a (e1)","symbol":"y_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.5},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.2},{"note":"","symbol":"w_1","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"b (e2)","symbol":"y_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.2},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.4},{"note":"","symbol":"w_2","unit":"","value":0.1736111111111111},{"note":"c (e3)","symbol":"y_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.9},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.7},{"note":"","symbol":"w_3","unit":"","value":0.34602076124567477},{"note":"d (e4)","symbol":"y_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.5},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.7},{"note":"","symbol":"w_4","unit":"","value":0.34602076124567477}],"text_pt":"Cada um dos 4 estudos entra com uma estimativa y e o seu erro-padr\u00e3o ep (derivado do intervalo publicado, ao n\u00edvel que o estudo declara, quando o erro-padr\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 publicado); o peso de efeitos fixos \u00e9 o inverso da vari\u00e2ncia.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u0233_F = (w_1\u00b7y_1 + w_2\u00b7y_2 + w_3\u00b7y_3 + w_4\u00b7y_4) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4)","result":3.4185964246192886,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos pondera cada estudo pela sua precis\u00e3o.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"Q = w_1\u00b7(y_1 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_2\u00b7(y_2 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_3\u00b7(y_3 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_4\u00b7(y_4 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2","result":0.34166069570428587,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A estat\u00edstica Q mede quanto os estudos discordam da m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos al\u00e9m do acaso.","unit":""},{"formula":"C = (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4) \u2212 (w_1\u00b2 + w_2\u00b2 + w_3\u00b2 + w_4\u00b2) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4)","result":0.781020784396288,"terms":[],"text_pt":"C \u00e9 a constante de escala de DerSimonian e Laird.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u03c4\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / C)","result":0.0,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"estudos","value":4.0}],"text_pt":"A vari\u00e2ncia entre estudos \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e9 zero quando Q n\u00e3o excede k \u2212 1, o que o acaso sozinho produziria.","unit":"(pontos percentuais)\u00b2"},{"formula":"I\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / Q) \u00d7 100","result":0.0,"terms":[],"text_pt":"I\u00b2 \u00e9 a parcela da dispers\u00e3o observada que vem da varia\u00e7\u00e3o entre estudos, n\u00e3o do acaso.","unit":"%"},{"formula":"w*_1 = 1 / (ep_1\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_2 = 1 / (ep_2\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_3 = 1 / (ep_3\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_4 = 1 / (ep_4\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"w*_1","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_2","unit":"","value":0.1736111111111111},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_3","unit":"","value":0.34602076124567477},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_4","unit":"","value":0.34602076124567477}],"text_pt":"Os pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios somam \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e0 vari\u00e2ncia de cada estudo, o que aproxima os pesos entre si quando os estudos discordam.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep(\u0233) = \u221a(1 / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4))","result":0.9657152644191747,"terms":[],"text_pt":"O erro-padr\u00e3o da m\u00e9dia agrupada vem da soma dos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"\u0233 = (w*_1\u00b7y_1 + w*_2\u00b7y_2 + w*_3\u00b7y_3 + w*_4\u00b7y_4) / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4)","result":3.418596424619288,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia agrupada \u00e9 a m\u00e9dia das estimativas ponderada pelos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"IC95 = \u0233 \u00b1 z\u00b7ep(\u0233)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"quantil 0.975 da normal padr\u00e3o","symbol":"z","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054}],"text_pt":"O intervalo de 95% usa o valor cr\u00edtico da normal.","unit":""}]},"key":"pooled","label":"Random-effects pooled estimate (DerSimonian\u2013Laird) over 4 studies","se":0.9657152644191747,"unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.418596424619288}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"studies":[{"estimate":3.5,"id":"e1","se":2.2,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"a","weight_fixed":0.20661157024793386,"weight_pct":19.268718428351164,"weight_random":0.20661157024793386},{"estimate":2.2,"id":"e2","se":2.4,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"b","weight_fixed":0.1736111111111111,"weight_pct":16.191075901600634,"weight_random":0.1736111111111111},{"estimate":3.9,"id":"e3","se":1.7,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"c","weight_fixed":0.34602076124567477,"weight_pct":32.270102835024105,"weight_random":0.34602076124567477},{"estimate":3.5,"id":"e4","se":1.7,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"d","weight_fixed":0.34602076124567477,"weight_pct":32.270102835024105,"weight_random":0.34602076124567477}]},"tool":"evidence.pool_dl","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["fewer than five studies: the DerSimonian\u2013Laird \u03c4\u00b2 is imprecise and its normal interval tends to be too narrow"]},"result_for_model_ref":"e59778549a6e82c832f07bf57a36b74d71c93aac3e5bc5515a637d9fce0340bd","result_sha256":"163c02b81af954160771d937d26832fa4f80dd4f952a8b71609384c5d2509eef","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1002","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.844991Z","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","turn_id":"call_ed82cf4e"}
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