{"attempt":1,"datasets":{},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Seis estudos estimaram o efeito de programas de alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o escolar sobre a frequ\u00eancia, em pontos percentuais, com intervalos de confian\u00e7a de 95%:\n- Estudo A (2011): 3,6 (IC 95%: 0,1 a 7,1)\n- Estudo B (2012): 3,5 (IC 95%: -0,4 a 7,4)\n- Estudo C (2013): 6,8 (IC 95%: 3,5 a 10,1)\n- Estudo D (2014): 1,4 (IC 95%: -2,5 a 5,3)\n- Estudo E (2015): 3,1 (IC 95%: -1,6 a 7,8)\n- Estudo F (2019): 3,2 (IC 95%: 1,2 a 5,2)\nQual a estimativa combinada dos estudos?","question_sha256":"2c0ffdf5b6c0e133ab9ea8096746fa63077afbe4e4be557d655cc79e9cf7d89b","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1003","task_sha256":"bd91d5db3455adfe347f0a3880adaa9af3421f53001a59952b3406d65885a2d2","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.854522Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_9c8611ea","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["0418c63a5b16b9051e2dc655d5aca95950e8be7a54f75c80d0ea95e9777ce40c"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5ec81d84347bfcd291f77c36ebef99cc5836d341cbb25f78c669beedae0dcf8d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"estimates":[{"ci_high":7.1,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.1,"estimate":3.6,"id":"e1","study_id":"a"},{"ci_high":7.4,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-0.4,"estimate":3.5,"id":"e2","study_id":"b"},{"ci_high":10.1,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":3.5,"estimate":6.8,"id":"e3","study_id":"c"},{"ci_high":5.3,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-2.5,"estimate":1.4,"id":"e4","study_id":"d"},{"ci_high":7.8,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-1.6,"estimate":3.1,"id":"e5","study_id":"e"},{"ci_high":5.2,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.2,"estimate":3.2,"id":"e6","study_id":"f"}],"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","vendor_id":"baseline_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.854522Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"estimates":[{"ci_high":7.1,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":0.1,"estimate":3.6,"id":"e1","se":null,"study_id":"a"},{"ci_high":7.4,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-0.4,"estimate":3.5,"id":"e2","se":null,"study_id":"b"},{"ci_high":10.1,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":3.5,"estimate":6.8,"id":"e3","se":null,"study_id":"c"},{"ci_high":5.3,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-2.5,"estimate":1.4,"id":"e4","se":null,"study_id":"d"},{"ci_high":7.8,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":-1.6,"estimate":3.1,"id":"e5","se":null,"study_id":"e"},{"ci_high":5.2,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":1.2,"estimate":3.2,"id":"e6","se":null,"study_id":"f"}],"level":0.95,"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_10d9fee9","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":0.6289170123636723,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"934c94fd525a03da9019e1776b4147e130641502fdd9d2b22546eb0dd4848103","llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","output_digest":"f50fdabbd1d9795a482c90adfc0e1680086967889c1dbde3fd181831a74a83cb","rationale":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["every estimate measures the same effect in 'pontos percentuais'","each study contributes one independent estimate","a standard error taken from an interval assumes a symmetric normal interval at the level the study states: se = (high \u2212 low) / (2\u00b7z)"],"call_id":"call_10d9fee9","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"independent studies","value":6},{"flag":false,"name":"tau2","note":"between-study variance, (pontos percentuais)\u00b2","value":0.018192909038702892},{"flag":false,"name":"i2","note":"% of the spread that is between studies","value":0.6293678916628813},{"flag":false,"name":"q","note":"Cochran's Q","value":5.0316677009247925},{"flag":false,"name":"n_se_from_interval","note":"standard errors taken from published intervals","value":6}],"figures":[{"ci_high":4.932026972776468,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":2.3373275931502673,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"w_1 = 1 / ep_1\u00b2 ; w_2 = 1 / ep_2\u00b2 ; w_3 = 1 / ep_3\u00b2 ; w_4 = 1 / ep_4\u00b2 ; w_5 = 1 / ep_5\u00b2 ; w_6 = 1 / ep_6\u00b2","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"a (e1)","symbol":"y_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.6},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o do intervalo de 95% publicado: (sup \u2212 inf) / (2 \u00d7 1.96)","symbol":"ep_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.785747099236289},{"note":"","symbol":"w_1","unit":"","value":0.3135884751587041},{"note":"b (e2)","symbol":"y_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.5},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o do intervalo de 95% publicado: (sup \u2212 inf) / (2 \u00d7 1.96)","symbol":"ep_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.9898324820061506},{"note":"","symbol":"w_2","unit":"","value":0.2525613951804158},{"note":"c (e3)","symbol":"y_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":6.8},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o do intervalo de 95% publicado: (sup \u2212 inf) / (2 \u00d7 1.96)","symbol":"ep_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.6837044078513579},{"note":"","symbol":"w_3","unit":"","value":0.3527510395495065},{"note":"d (e4)","symbol":"y_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.4},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o do intervalo de 95% publicado: (sup \u2212 inf) / (2 \u00d7 1.96)","symbol":"ep_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.9898324820061504},{"note":"","symbol":"w_4","unit":"","value":0.25256139518041587},{"note":"e (e5)","symbol":"y_5","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.1},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o do intervalo de 95% publicado: (sup \u2212 inf) / (2 \u00d7 1.96)","symbol":"ep_5","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.3980032475458737},{"note":"","symbol":"w_5","unit":"","value":0.1739003540377603},{"note":"f (e6)","symbol":"y_6","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.2},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o do intervalo de 95% publicado: (sup \u2212 inf) / (2 \u00d7 1.96)","symbol":"ep_6","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.0204269138493078},{"note":"","symbol":"w_6","unit":"","value":0.9603647051735313}],"text_pt":"Cada um dos 6 estudos entra com uma estimativa y e o seu erro-padr\u00e3o ep (derivado do intervalo publicado, ao n\u00edvel que o estudo declara, quando o erro-padr\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 publicado); o peso de efeitos fixos \u00e9 o inverso da vari\u00e2ncia.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u0233_F = (w_1\u00b7y_1 + w_2\u00b7y_2 + w_3\u00b7y_3 + w_4\u00b7y_4 + w_5\u00b7y_5 + w_6\u00b7y_6) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6)","result":3.6333153258902953,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos pondera cada estudo pela sua precis\u00e3o.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"Q = w_1\u00b7(y_1 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_2\u00b7(y_2 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_3\u00b7(y_3 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_4\u00b7(y_4 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_5\u00b7(y_5 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_6\u00b7(y_6 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2","result":5.0316677009247925,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A estat\u00edstica Q mede quanto os estudos discordam da m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos al\u00e9m do acaso.","unit":""},{"formula":"C = (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6) \u2212 (w_1\u00b2 + w_2\u00b2 + w_3\u00b2 + w_4\u00b2 + w_5\u00b2 + w_6\u00b2) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4 + w_5 + w_6)","result":1.7406617521927854,"terms":[],"text_pt":"C \u00e9 a constante de escala de DerSimonian e Laird.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u03c4\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / C)","result":0.018192909038702892,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"estudos","value":6.0}],"text_pt":"A vari\u00e2ncia entre estudos \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e9 zero quando Q n\u00e3o excede k \u2212 1, o que o acaso sozinho produziria.","unit":"(pontos percentuais)\u00b2"},{"formula":"I\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / Q) \u00d7 100","result":0.6293678916628813,"terms":[],"text_pt":"I\u00b2 \u00e9 a parcela da dispers\u00e3o observada que vem da varia\u00e7\u00e3o entre estudos, n\u00e3o do acaso.","unit":"%"},{"formula":"w*_1 = 1 / (ep_1\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_2 = 1 / (ep_2\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_3 = 1 / (ep_3\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_4 = 1 / (ep_4\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_5 = 1 / (ep_5\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_6 = 1 / (ep_6\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"w*_1","unit":"","value":0.31180957453199654},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_2","unit":"","value":0.25140622718818045},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_3","unit":"","value":0.35050167138793237},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_4","unit":"","value":0.2514062271881805},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_5","unit":"","value":0.1733519113522048},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_6","unit":"","value":0.9438735098156498}],"text_pt":"Os pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios somam \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e0 vari\u00e2ncia de cada estudo, o que aproxima os pesos entre si quando os estudos discordam.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep(\u0233) = \u221a(1 / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4 + w*_5 + w*_6))","result":0.6619252700796693,"terms":[],"text_pt":"O erro-padr\u00e3o da m\u00e9dia agrupada vem da soma dos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"\u0233 = (w*_1\u00b7y_1 + w*_2\u00b7y_2 + w*_3\u00b7y_3 + w*_4\u00b7y_4 + w*_5\u00b7y_5 + w*_6\u00b7y_6) / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4 + w*_5 + w*_6)","result":3.6346772829633673,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia agrupada \u00e9 a m\u00e9dia das estimativas ponderada pelos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"IC95 = \u0233 \u00b1 z\u00b7ep(\u0233)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"quantil 0.975 da normal padr\u00e3o","symbol":"z","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054}],"text_pt":"O intervalo de 95% usa o valor cr\u00edtico da normal.","unit":""}]},"key":"pooled","label":"Random-effects pooled estimate (DerSimonian\u2013Laird) over 6 studies","se":0.6619252700796693,"unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.6346772829633673}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"studies":[{"estimate":3.6,"id":"e1","se":1.785747099236289,"se_source":"interval (95%)","study_id":"a","weight_fixed":0.3135884751587041,"weight_pct":13.66178257303459,"weight_random":0.31180957453199654},{"estimate":3.5,"id":"e2","se":1.9898324820061506,"se_source":"interval (95%)","study_id":"b","weight_fixed":0.2525613951804158,"weight_pct":11.015239729270753,"weight_random":0.25140622718818045},{"estimate":6.8,"id":"e3","se":1.6837044078513579,"se_source":"interval (95%)","study_id":"c","weight_fixed":0.3527510395495065,"weight_pct":15.357057695147132,"weight_random":0.35050167138793237},{"estimate":1.4,"id":"e4","se":1.9898324820061504,"se_source":"interval (95%)","study_id":"d","weight_fixed":0.25256139518041587,"weight_pct":11.015239729270757,"weight_random":0.2514062271881805},{"estimate":3.1,"id":"e5","se":2.3980032475458737,"se_source":"interval (95%)","study_id":"e","weight_fixed":0.1739003540377603,"weight_pct":7.595328415005949,"weight_random":0.1733519113522048},{"estimate":3.2,"id":"e6","se":1.0204269138493078,"se_source":"interval (95%)","study_id":"f","weight_fixed":0.9603647051735313,"weight_pct":41.35535185827082,"weight_random":0.9438735098156498}]},"tool":"evidence.pool_dl","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"685de8d0e49b8d807351b9e8eae2c0b9e2562433750bd9dca0cbb8e14e95c90f","result_sha256":"e7ae2e4ad53422175c72019f663f79d14b2349954db72d1e1de53cc4c6234c4b","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.857663Z","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","turn_id":"call_9c8611ea"}
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{"answer":"Estimativa (evidence.pool_dl): pooled = 3,635 (IC 95%: 2,337 a 4,932).","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_10d9fee9","ci_high":4.932026972776468,"ci_low":2.3373275931502673,"formatted":3.6346772829633673,"key":"pooled","ref":"call_10d9fee9:pooled","se":0.6619252700796693,"tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.6346772829633673},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_10d9fee9:pooled"],"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1003","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.860036Z"}
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