{"attempt":1,"datasets":{},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"Quatro avalia\u00e7\u00f5es independentes de programas de transfer\u00eancia de renda condicionada estimaram o efeito sobre a frequ\u00eancia escolar, em pontos percentuais:\n- Estudo A (2008): 4,6 (erro-padr\u00e3o 0,8)\n- Estudo B (2009): 1,7 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,2)\n- Estudo C (2011): 5,4 (erro-padr\u00e3o 1,9)\n- Estudo D (2013): 3,2 (erro-padr\u00e3o 2,2)\nO que esses estudos indicam, em conjunto, sobre o efeito m\u00e9dio? Qu\u00e3o diferentes s\u00e3o entre si?","question_sha256":"789a736c7cd4818f9995ea01301923a4726a0443783aa8a23cd918dd8612b13d","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","task_sha256":"94bc9766ca684d716caccbb74545d2f4f7662d4f9f67a53c9c2a1ad5f6281d1e","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.866260Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_a6c7e338","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["a430a1520f7bd60cabedec0d7d7b0fe4c7f12797ab0196e716ddf7789cf0e136"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5ec81d84347bfcd291f77c36ebef99cc5836d341cbb25f78c669beedae0dcf8d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"estimates":[{"estimate":4.6,"id":"e1","se":0.8,"study_id":"a"},{"estimate":1.7,"id":"e2","se":2.2,"study_id":"b"},{"estimate":5.4,"id":"e3","se":1.9,"study_id":"c"},{"estimate":3.2,"id":"e4","se":2.2,"study_id":"d"}],"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","vendor_id":"baseline_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.866260Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"estimates":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":4.6,"id":"e1","se":0.8,"study_id":"a"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":1.7,"id":"e2","se":2.2,"study_id":"b"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":5.4,"id":"e3","se":1.9,"study_id":"c"},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":null,"estimate":3.2,"id":"e4","se":2.2,"study_id":"d"}],"level":0.95,"unit":"pontos percentuais"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_6eaed3e7","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":0.2392090391367674,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"5d23663c7b7d4ae9e1b2eff91cfea6a48c5db7556d49bac82058cdb9607dd0a2","llm_name":"evidence__pool_dl","output_digest":"7777097cdeda2696a6a9e3d475ea769bd9e529674606400f6364eda0839d967f","rationale":"V\u00e1rios estudos do mesmo efeito: meta-an\u00e1lise.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":["every estimate measures the same effect in 'pontos percentuais'","each study contributes one independent estimate"],"call_id":"call_6eaed3e7","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"k","note":"independent studies","value":4},{"flag":false,"name":"tau2","note":"between-study variance, (pontos percentuais)\u00b2","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"i2","note":"% of the spread that is between studies","value":0.0},{"flag":false,"name":"q","note":"Cochran's Q","value":2.1224633432355002},{"flag":false,"name":"n_se_from_interval","note":"standard errors taken from published intervals","value":0}],"figures":[{"ci_high":5.60984378140481,"ci_level":0.95,"ci_low":2.998143261483862,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"w_1 = 1 / ep_1\u00b2 ; w_2 = 1 / ep_2\u00b2 ; w_3 = 1 / ep_3\u00b2 ; w_4 = 1 / ep_4\u00b2","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"a (e1)","symbol":"y_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":4.6},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_1","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":0.8},{"note":"","symbol":"w_1","unit":"","value":1.5624999999999998},{"note":"b (e2)","symbol":"y_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.7},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_2","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.2},{"note":"","symbol":"w_2","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"c (e3)","symbol":"y_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":5.4},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_3","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":1.9},{"note":"","symbol":"w_3","unit":"","value":0.2770083102493075},{"note":"d (e4)","symbol":"y_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":3.2},{"note":"erro-padr\u00e3o publicado","symbol":"ep_4","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":2.2},{"note":"","symbol":"w_4","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386}],"text_pt":"Cada um dos 4 estudos entra com uma estimativa y e o seu erro-padr\u00e3o ep (derivado do intervalo publicado, ao n\u00edvel que o estudo declara, quando o erro-padr\u00e3o n\u00e3o \u00e9 publicado); o peso de efeitos fixos \u00e9 o inverso da vari\u00e2ncia.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u0233_F = (w_1\u00b7y_1 + w_2\u00b7y_2 + w_3\u00b7y_3 + w_4\u00b7y_4) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4)","result":4.303993521444336,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos pondera cada estudo pela sua precis\u00e3o.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"Q = w_1\u00b7(y_1 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_2\u00b7(y_2 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_3\u00b7(y_3 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2 + w_4\u00b7(y_4 \u2212 \u0233_F)\u00b2","result":2.1224633432355002,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A estat\u00edstica Q mede quanto os estudos discordam da m\u00e9dia de efeitos fixos al\u00e9m do acaso.","unit":""},{"formula":"C = (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4) \u2212 (w_1\u00b2 + w_2\u00b2 + w_3\u00b2 + w_4\u00b2) / (w_1 + w_2 + w_3 + w_4)","result":1.0970160036124958,"terms":[],"text_pt":"C \u00e9 a constante de escala de DerSimonian e Laird.","unit":""},{"formula":"\u03c4\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / C)","result":0.0,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"k","unit":"estudos","value":4.0}],"text_pt":"A vari\u00e2ncia entre estudos \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e9 zero quando Q n\u00e3o excede k \u2212 1, o que o acaso sozinho produziria.","unit":"(pontos percentuais)\u00b2"},{"formula":"I\u00b2 = max(0, (Q \u2212 (k \u2212 1)) / Q) \u00d7 100","result":0.0,"terms":[],"text_pt":"I\u00b2 \u00e9 a parcela da dispers\u00e3o observada que vem da varia\u00e7\u00e3o entre estudos, n\u00e3o do acaso.","unit":"%"},{"formula":"w*_1 = 1 / (ep_1\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_2 = 1 / (ep_2\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_3 = 1 / (ep_3\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2) ; w*_4 = 1 / (ep_4\u00b2 + \u03c4\u00b2)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"w*_1","unit":"","value":1.5624999999999998},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_2","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_3","unit":"","value":0.2770083102493075},{"note":"","symbol":"w*_4","unit":"","value":0.20661157024793386}],"text_pt":"Os pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios somam \u03c4\u00b2 \u00e0 vari\u00e2ncia de cada estudo, o que aproxima os pesos entre si quando os estudos discordam.","unit":""},{"formula":"ep(\u0233) = \u221a(1 / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4))","result":0.6662623753603915,"terms":[],"text_pt":"O erro-padr\u00e3o da m\u00e9dia agrupada vem da soma dos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"\u0233 = (w*_1\u00b7y_1 + w*_2\u00b7y_2 + w*_3\u00b7y_3 + w*_4\u00b7y_4) / (w*_1 + w*_2 + w*_3 + w*_4)","result":4.303993521444336,"terms":[],"text_pt":"A m\u00e9dia agrupada \u00e9 a m\u00e9dia das estimativas ponderada pelos pesos de efeitos aleat\u00f3rios.","unit":"pontos percentuais"},{"formula":"IC95 = \u0233 \u00b1 z\u00b7ep(\u0233)","result":null,"terms":[{"note":"quantil 0.975 da normal padr\u00e3o","symbol":"z","unit":"","value":1.959963984540054}],"text_pt":"O intervalo de 95% usa o valor cr\u00edtico da normal.","unit":""}]},"key":"pooled","label":"Random-effects pooled estimate (DerSimonian\u2013Laird) over 4 studies","se":0.6662623753603915,"unit":"pontos percentuais","value":4.303993521444336}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{"studies":[{"estimate":4.6,"id":"e1","se":0.8,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"a","weight_fixed":1.5624999999999998,"weight_pct":69.3602426282611,"weight_random":1.5624999999999998},{"estimate":1.7,"id":"e2","se":2.2,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"b","weight_fixed":0.20661157024793386,"weight_pct":9.171602331009733,"weight_random":0.20661157024793386},{"estimate":5.4,"id":"e3","se":1.9,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"c","weight_fixed":0.2770083102493075,"weight_pct":12.296552709719423,"weight_random":0.2770083102493075},{"estimate":3.2,"id":"e4","se":2.2,"se_source":"reported","study_id":"d","weight_fixed":0.20661157024793386,"weight_pct":9.171602331009733,"weight_random":0.20661157024793386}]},"tool":"evidence.pool_dl","version":"0.1.0","warnings":["fewer than five studies: the DerSimonian\u2013Laird \u03c4\u00b2 is imprecise and its normal interval tends to be too narrow"]},"result_for_model_ref":"f02e9188a5b997c6b848153b439a5b4a2221bffaf66fabee9dd0ced463ff3b15","result_sha256":"ed2a6a5637775ba920f0bae86c951020aadfd34afd4b2c4b790e818e90e6d355","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.868572Z","tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","turn_id":"call_a6c7e338"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_71b55815","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["a430a1520f7bd60cabedec0d7d7b0fe4c7f12797ab0196e716ddf7789cf0e136","a211af629df1a2f5a29b37aab3b25d7bd81502a9792e7334aee706ce2a99e6b4","d569d3e1ab1aa6f5a4812da73e8504324b0c5b4b720e78d93a90123021960e0d"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"5ec81d84347bfcd291f77c36ebef99cc5836d341cbb25f78c669beedae0dcf8d","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (evidence.pool_dl): pooled = 4,304 (IC 95%: 2,998 a 5,610).","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_6eaed3e7:pooled"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":3,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.868970Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_a575a3db","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["4,304","95%","2,998","5,610"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":4,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.870491Z","turn_id":"call_71b55815","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (evidence.pool_dl): pooled = 4,304 (IC 95%: 2,998 a 5,610).","answer_figure":{"call_id":"call_6eaed3e7","ci_high":5.60984378140481,"ci_low":2.998143261483862,"formatted":4.303993521444336,"key":"pooled","ref":"call_6eaed3e7:pooled","se":0.6662623753603915,"tool_id":"evidence.pool_dl","unit":"pontos percentuais","value":4.303993521444336},"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_6eaed3e7:pooled"],"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.870670Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of evidence.pool_dl","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_6eaed3e7","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":6,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.870670Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"4.303993521 vs 4.303993521444336","expected":4.303993521444336,"failure_class":null,"kind":"figure_close","observed":4.303993521444336,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":{"abs_tol":0.005,"interval":null,"min_lre":null,"open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"rule":null},"trace_call_id":"call_6eaed3e7","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":7,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.870670Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":8,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.870670Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"answer_cites(evidence.pool_dl): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"evidence.pool_dl","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":["call_6eaed3e7:pooled"],"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_6eaed3e7","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":9,"task_id":"tool_selection.pooling.test.s1004","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.870670Z"}