{"attempt":1,"datasets":{"dados":{"description_shown":"Uma linha por partido numa elei\u00e7\u00e3o municipal. margem: margem de votos do partido (positiva quando venceu, negativa quando perdeu; zero \u00e9 o empate); vencedor: 1 se o partido venceu a elei\u00e7\u00e3o; reeleito: \u00edndice de desempenho do partido na elei\u00e7\u00e3o seguinte (maior \u00e9 melhor).","file_sha256":null,"frame_sha256":null,"role":"agent","transforms":[]}},"epoch":1,"event":"sample_init","question":"H\u00e1 suspeita de que partidos que perderiam por pouco conseguiram virar o resultado na apura\u00e7\u00e3o. A compara\u00e7\u00e3o entre quem venceu e quem perdeu por pouco ainda \u00e9 confi\u00e1vel?","question_sha256":"174b6214a4158bed12d5d9f15acf2e39aa569a6fe9584476d522223e4a349ba6","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":0,"skills":[],"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","task_sha256":"44fdac5d82979c9f616ab40f7a6e83a8d430f1e589243041b76ab5d12fe7a1d4","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.216851Z"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_b77cfb7a","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["58364449330986998fd65c1e996ea7be483919489579e656e0d2a7a7ad59a9df"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"214a96872f49b423163aeaf121ab6322c560f869236bb2f425a97296873cbdc2","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"Suspeita de manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da vari\u00e1vel de corte: teste de densidade.","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"llm_name":"infer__density_test","tool_id":"infer.density_test","vendor_id":"baseline_1"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":1,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.216851Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"arguments":{"bandwidth":null,"bin_size":null,"cutoff":0.0,"dataset":"dados","running":"margem"},"attempt":1,"cached":false,"call_id":"call_174df8dd","card_version":"0.1.0","code_version":"2925aeab2262","dataset_digests":{"dados":"f3589c18b707084a48c49db39d5e1f84d07cbfed393f8be7341736aca4542f73"},"decided_by":"model","duration_ms":2.1260417997837067,"epoch":1,"error":null,"event":"tool","informed_by":[],"input_digest":"d1c767aca985adcc3fd02a9a51446406927af28d60a6b96e5c1b4bf6e6d90a01","llm_name":"infer__density_test","output_digest":"0328ab226ee187b2b747efde9bda6678061aaae21a5cd410fc79151877ef5669","rationale":"Suspeita de manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da vari\u00e1vel de corte: teste de densidade.","replay_class":"replayed","result":{"assumptions":[],"call_id":"call_174df8dd","datasets":{},"diagnostics":[{"flag":false,"name":"method","note":"log difference of the smoothed densities at the cutoff","value":"mccrary"},{"flag":true,"name":"manipulation","note":"the density jumps at the cutoff (p < 0.05): units sort around the threshold and an RD estimate is not credible as it stands","value":true},{"flag":false,"name":"bin_size","note":"default bin width","value":0.02107684057906566},{"flag":false,"name":"bandwidth","note":"default smoothing bandwidth","value":0.24620862560499915},{"flag":false,"name":"n_obs","note":"","value":3000},{"flag":false,"name":"f_left","note":"estimated density just below the cutoff","value":0.12525410725906022},{"flag":false,"name":"f_right","note":"estimated density just above the cutoff","value":0.9985121819249402},{"flag":false,"name":"n_distinct","note":"","value":3000}],"figures":[{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"\u03b8 = ln(f\u208a) \u2212 ln(f\u208b)","result":2.0759218210919066,"terms":[{"note":"acima do limiar","symbol":"f\u208a","unit":"","value":0.9985121819249402},{"note":"abaixo do limiar","symbol":"f\u208b","unit":"","value":0.12525410725906022}],"text_pt":"Densidades estimadas no limiar, por ajuste linear local das alturas do histograma de cada lado.","unit":"log"}]},"key":"theta","label":"Log difference of the density of margem just above and just below the cutoff","se":0.24164270441413496,"unit":"log points","value":2.0759218210919066},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"ep = \u221a((1 / (n \u00b7 h)) \u00b7 (24 / 5) \u00b7 (1 / f\u208a + 1 / f\u208b))","result":0.24164270441413496,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"n","unit":"observa\u00e7\u00f5es","value":3000.0},{"note":"","symbol":"h","unit":"","value":0.24620862560499915},{"note":"","symbol":"f\u208a","unit":"","value":0.9985121819249402},{"note":"","symbol":"f\u208b","unit":"","value":0.12525410725906022}],"text_pt":"Erro-padr\u00e3o assint\u00f3tico de McCrary (2008).","unit":""}]},"key":"se","label":"Standard error of theta","se":null,"unit":"log points","value":0.24164270441413496},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"z = \u03b8 / ep","result":8.590873149367363,"terms":[{"note":"","symbol":"\u03b8","unit":"","value":2.0759218210919066},{"note":"","symbol":"ep","unit":"","value":0.24164270441413496}],"text_pt":"Estat\u00edstica z: \u03b8 dividido pelo seu erro-padr\u00e3o.","unit":""}]},"key":"z","label":"z statistic of theta","se":null,"unit":"","value":8.590873149367363},{"ci_high":null,"ci_level":null,"ci_low":null,"derivation":{"note_pt":"","steps":[{"formula":"","result":8.631088179912394e-18,"terms":[],"text_pt":"Probabilidade bilateral de uma normal padr\u00e3o exceder |z| em valor absoluto.","unit":"probabilidade"}]},"key":"p_value","label":"p-value of no density jump at the cutoff","se":null,"unit":"probability","value":8.631088179912394e-18}],"notes":"","reason":"","status":"ok","tables":{},"tool":"infer.density_test","version":"0.1.0","warnings":[]},"result_for_model_ref":"0e9c371066027e4a5af8a4a393abdf34582c102ee8bdb0893948c5e05c678882","result_sha256":"7139442fc98f74badb93bc50de829892c77a90b9ee9b39b3edcfd5f590f4730c","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":2,"synthetic":false,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.219512Z","tool_id":"infer.density_test","turn_id":"call_b77cfb7a"}
{"attempt":1,"attempts":[],"call_id":"call_39da8a33","epoch":1,"event":"model","finish_reason":"tool_use","latency_ms":0.0,"model_reported":"rules-1","model_requested":"rules-1","provider":"baseline","request":{"config":{},"contents_refs":[],"messages_refs":["58364449330986998fd65c1e996ea7be483919489579e656e0d2a7a7ad59a9df","d2f8ac08ded246c32446330e4ab72aa9527f3ae205630d69e4fe24ae51a357aa","960c4760af0a328b495405f508ae436a32f022b3a8dd98800fca8d1e7ac6e507"],"system_stable_ref":"433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420","system_task_ref":"214a96872f49b423163aeaf121ab6322c560f869236bb2f425a97296873cbdc2","tools_ref":"52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b"},"response":{"text":"","thoughts":null,"tool_calls":[{"args":{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.density_test): theta = 2,076. O teste indica manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da vari\u00e1vel de corte perto do limiar; a compara\u00e7\u00e3o no limiar n\u00e3o \u00e9 confi\u00e1vel.","caveats":[],"figure_refs":["call_174df8dd:theta"]},"llm_name":"submit_answer","tool_id":null,"vendor_id":"baseline_answer"}]},"response_id":null,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":3,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.221779Z","usage":{"cached":0,"input":0,"output":0,"thoughts":0},"vendor":false}
{"attempt":1,"call_id":"call_7c31f501","epoch":1,"event":"guard","numbers_found":["2,076"],"retries_left":1,"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":4,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223088Z","turn_id":"call_39da8a33","unbacked":[],"uncited":[],"verdict":"accepted"}
{"answer":"Estimativa (infer.density_test): theta = 2,076. O teste indica manipula\u00e7\u00e3o da vari\u00e1vel de corte perto do limiar; a compara\u00e7\u00e3o no limiar n\u00e3o \u00e9 confi\u00e1vel.","answer_figure":null,"attempt":1,"caveats":[],"epoch":1,"event":"answer","figure_refs":["call_174df8dd:theta"],"run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":5,"stopped":"answered","task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":0,"detail":"1 successful call(s) of infer.density_test","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"tool_called","observed":1,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_174df8dd","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":6,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":1,"detail":"infer.density_test.running = ['margem']","expected":"margem","failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":["margem"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_174df8dd","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":7,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":2,"detail":"infer.density_test.cutoff = [0.0]","expected":0.0,"failure_class":null,"kind":"arg_equals","observed":[0.0],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_174df8dd","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":8,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":3,"detail":"figure_close(infer.density_test:p_value): ok | diagnostic(infer.density_test:p_value): no diagnostic 'p_value'","expected":[{"abs_tol":0.05,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":"p_value","kind":"figure_close","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.density_test","value":0.0,"weight":1.0,"where":null},{"abs_tol":0.05,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":"p_value","kind":"diagnostic","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.density_test","value":0.0,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":8.631088179912394e-18,"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_174df8dd","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":9,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":4,"detail":"found ['manipul']","expected":["manipul","aglomer","acumul","ac\u00famul","amontoa","bunching","sorting","autossele","auto-sele","salto na densidade","descontinuidade na densidade"],"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_contains","observed":["manipul"],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":10,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":5,"detail":"every number backed","expected":null,"failure_class":null,"kind":"answer_backed","observed":[],"passed":true,"required":true,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":null,"weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":11,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}
{"attempt":1,"check":{"check_index":6,"detail":"answer_cites(infer.density_test): ok","expected":[{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"any","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"answer_cites","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.density_test","value":null,"weight":1.0,"where":null}],"failure_class":null,"kind":"any_of","observed":["call_174df8dd:theta"],"passed":true,"required":false,"source_id":null,"tolerance":null,"trace_call_id":"call_174df8dd","weight":1.0},"epoch":1,"event":"score","run_id":"20261015T171401Z-suite-tool_selection-baseline-a1426d","seq":12,"task_id":"tool_selection.rdd_manipulated.test.s1000","timestamp":"2026-10-15T17:14:02.223279Z"}