Tarefa paper_repro.ccft_2017.senate_h16794.agent

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Calonico, Cattaneo, Farrell and Titiunik (2017), 'rdrobust: Software for Regression-discontinuity Designs', the U.S. Senate example (data of Cattaneo, Frandsen and Titiunik 2015): estimate the incumbency advantage as a sharp regression discontinuity, the jump at a Democratic lead of zero in the Democratic party's share of the votes in the next election for the same seat, where the running variable is the Democratic lead over the strongest opponent in the current election, in percentage points. Use a local linear regression on each side of zero with kernel weights that fall linearly from one at zero to nothing at the bandwidth, and the bandwidth h = 16.79369 percentage points that Calonico, Cattaneo and Titiunik (2014) selected for this example (use it as given; do not recompute it). Report the conventional point estimate of the jump.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Calonico, Cattaneo, Farrell and Titiunik (2017), 'rdrobust: Software for Regression-discontinuity Designs', the U.S. Senate example (data of Cattaneo, Frandsen and Titiunik 2015): estimate the incumbency advantage as a sharp regression discontinuity, the jump at a Democratic lead of zero in the Democratic party's share of the votes in the next election for the same seat, where the running variable is the Democratic lead over the strongest opponent in the current election, in percentage points. Use a local linear regression on each side of zero with kernel weights that fall linearly from one at zero to nothing at the bandwidth, and the bandwidth h = 16.79369 percentage points that Calonico, Cattaneo and Titiunik (2014) selected for this example (use it as given; do not recompute it). Report the conventional point estimate of the jump.

   senate (agent)

   U.S. Senate elections, 1914-2010, the extract of the data of Cattaneo, Frandsen and Titiunik (2015) that ships with the rdrobust package as its illustration: one row per state and Senate election (1,390 rows). Columns: state, state code; year, year of the election; margin, the Democratic party's margin of victory in that election, in percentage points (negative when the Democratic candidate lost); vote, the Democratic party's vote share, in percent, in the next election for the same Senate seat (missing for some rows); class, the seat's Senate class (1, 2 or 3); termshouse and termssenate, terms the Democratic candidate had served in the House and in the Senate; population, the state's population.

   file def1fc6b8ae5af273f2140aa449c81b3ecfe1d0f325aa80ceccb0d9638a2ad44 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_59cb1d91referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   rdrobust's Senate example at the bandwidth h = 16.79369 that Calonico, Cattaneo and Titiunik (2014) selected: local linear, triangular kernel, cutoff 0; the conventional point estimate (rdrobust's own errors are nearest-neighbour based; the tool's are HC1).

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.rdd

     {
       "bandwidth": 16.79369,
       "cutoff": 0,
       "dataset": "senate",
       "kernel": "triangular",
       "polynomial": 1,
       "running": "margin",
       "y": "vote"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.rddv0.1.0call_eb385e88decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: rdrobust's Senate example at the bandwidth h = 16.79369 that Calonico, Cattaneo and Titiunik (2014) selected: local linear, triangular kernel, cutoff 0; the conventional point estimate (rdrobust's own errors are nearest-neighbour based; the tool's are HC1).

   Argumentos

   {
     "bandwidth": 16.79369,
     "cluster": null,
     "cutoff": 0,
     "dataset": "senate",
     "kernel": "triangular",
     "level": 0.95,
     "polynomial": 1,
     "running": "margin",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "vote"
   }

   Figuras call_eb385e88

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   effect Jump in vote at the cutoff of margin	7,4253	7.425304341122355	1,49791.497901791714546	4,48947 – 10,3611

   Diagnósticos

   • bandwidth = 16,793716.79369
   • bandwidth_method = "user"
   • n_left = 343343
   • n_right = 310310
   • kernel = "triangular"
   • polynomial = 11
   • bandwidth_sensitive = false
   • n_obs = 1.2971297
   • se_type = "HC1"

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "sensitivity": [
       {
         "bandwidth": 8.396845,
         "ci_high": 12.665187371055993,
         "ci_low": 4.845539163400076,
         "estimate": 8.755363267228034,
         "multiplier": 0.5,
         "n_left": 217,
         "n_right": 175,
         "se": 1.9948448719814
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 16.79369,
         "ci_high": 10.361137905260883,
         "ci_low": 4.489470776983827,
         "estimate": 7.425304341122355,
         "multiplier": 1,
         "n_left": 343,
         "n_right": 310,
         "se": 1.497901791714546
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 33.58738,
         "ci_high": 9.455366988625087,
         "ci_low": 5.051427501358595,
         "estimate": 7.253397244991841,
         "multiplier": 2,
         "n_left": 499,
         "n_right": 488,
         "se": 1.1234745949426124
       }
     ]
   }

   • 93 rows were dropped because one of 'vote', 'margin' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   senate e1181ed0f741b1485e582b1110d74d93e57241b2b9bfa1ed59f2cd80ab0b165e

   sha256 do resultado

   314298f0ca13c04932bd228b4d321bc2a2a90712721d31d5bd2c84f7ba5031fb

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_42ad367ereferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 7,425.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_eb385e88:effect"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   7,425

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 7,425.

   Figuras citadas: call_eb385e88:effect · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_eb385e88:effect = 7,42537.425304341122355 (se 1,49791.497901791714546)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_eb385e88:effect (infer.rdd)
9. 8Pontuação
   #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.rdd
10. 9Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.y = 'vote'
11. 10Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.running = 'margin'
12. 11Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.cutoff = 0.0
13. 12Pontuação
    #6argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.bandwidth = 16.79369
14. 13Pontuação
    #7argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.kernel = 'triangular'
15. 14Pontuação
    #8argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.polynomial = 1
16. 15Pontuação
    #9diagnósticopassouobrigatória343 vs 343
17. 16Pontuação
    #10diagnósticopassouobrigatória310 vs 310
18. 17Pontuação
    #11figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória7.425304341 vs 7.425304341122386
19. 18Pontuação
    #12figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada1.497901792 vs 1.497901791714553
20. 19Pontuação
    #13figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada7.425304341 vs 7.4253
21. 20Pontuação
    #14figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada1.497901792 vs 1.4954

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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