Tarefa paper_repro.cheng_hoekstra_2013.tab5_pa_c2.agent

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Cheng and Hoekstra (NBER Working Paper 18134, 2012; published in the Journal of Human Resources, 2013), 'Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence? Evidence from Expansions to Castle Doctrine', Table 5, Panel A, column (2): in the state panel for 2000-2010, estimate by ordinary least squares, weighted by the state's average population over the period (the paper's population weight), the effect of castle doctrine laws on the log homicide rate, with state fixed effects, year fixed effects and region-by-year fixed effects (the four census regions) and no other controls. As in the paper, the law is measured as the fraction of each year in which it was in effect. Report the coefficient on the castle doctrine law.

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Trajetória

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1. 0Início

   Cheng and Hoekstra (NBER Working Paper 18134, 2012; published in the Journal of Human Resources, 2013), 'Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence? Evidence from Expansions to Castle Doctrine', Table 5, Panel A, column (2): in the state panel for 2000-2010, estimate by ordinary least squares, weighted by the state's average population over the period (the paper's population weight), the effect of castle doctrine laws on the log homicide rate, with state fixed effects, year fixed effects and region-by-year fixed effects (the four census regions) and no other controls. As in the paper, the law is measured as the fraction of each year in which it was in effect. Report the coefficient on the castle doctrine law.

   castle (agent)

   The state-year panel of Cheng and Hoekstra (2013), 'Does Strengthening Self-Defense Law Deter Crime or Escalate Violence? Evidence from Expansions to Castle Doctrine', as distributed with Cunningham's Causal Inference: The Mixtape: one row per U.S. state and year, 2000-2010 (550 rows: 50 states, 11 years). Columns used most: state, the state's name; sid, a numeric state id; year; cdl, the castle doctrine law variable as the paper codes it: the fraction of the year in which the state's castle doctrine (stand-your-ground) law was in effect, 0 before adoption and 1 in full years after it; post, 1 in every year from the adoption year on (any part of the year); effyear and treatment_date, the year the law took effect (missing for states that never adopted one); homicide, the homicide rate per 100,000 residents (FBI Uniform Crime Reports), and l_homicide its natural log; murder and l_murder, the murder rate and its log; population; popwt, the state's average population over 2000-2010 (constant within a state), the weight the paper's weighted regressions use; northeast, midwest, south, west, census region indicators; r20001 to r20104, region-by-year indicators named r20<two-digit year><region 1-4> (for example r20063 is region 3 in 2006); trend_1 to trend_51, state-specific linear trends; lead1 to lead9 and lag0 to lag5, event-time indicators relative to adoption; other crime rates (robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, motor) and their logs (l_robbery and so on); and the time-varying controls of the paper (police, unemployrt, income, poverty, prisoner, lagprisoner, exp_subsidy, exp_pubwelfare, and the shares of black and white men aged 15-24 and 25-44).

   file 804633c161827b6c0824f86f239046386d1a8266a866f83bf5ddb2aa762a5f29 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_5b4d5856referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Table 5, Panel A, column (2): column (1) plus region-by-year fixed effects, entered as the 44 region-by-year indicators of the file (those collinear with the year effects are dropped), weighted by population, errors clustered by state.

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "cluster": "sid",
       "controls": [
         "r20001",
         "r20002",
         "r20003",
         "r20004",
         "r20011",
         "r20012",
         "r20013",
         "r20014",
         "r20021",
         "r20022",
         "r20023",
         "r20024",
         "r20031",
         "r20032",
         "r20033",
         "r20034",
         "r20041",
         "r20042",
         "r20043",
         "r20044",
         "r20051",
         "r20052",
         "r20053",
         "r20054",
         "r20061",
         "r20062",
         "r20063",
         "r20064",
         "r20071",
         "r20072",
         "r20073",
         "r20074",
         "r20081",
         "r20082",
         "r20083",
         "r20084",
         "r20091",
         "r20092",
         "r20093",
         "r20094",
         "r20101",
         "r20102",
         "r20103",
         "r20104"
       ],
       "dataset": "castle",
       "fe": [
         "sid",
         "year"
       ],
       "weights": "popwt",
       "x": [
         "cdl"
       ],
       "y": "l_homicide"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.olsv0.1.0call_99bea445decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Table 5, Panel A, column (2): column (1) plus region-by-year fixed effects, entered as the 44 region-by-year indicators of the file (those collinear with the year effects are dropped), weighted by population, errors clustered by state.

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": "sid",
     "controls": [
       "r20001",
       "r20002",
       "r20003",
       "r20004",
       "r20011",
       "r20012",
       "r20013",
       "r20014",
       "r20021",
       "r20022",
       "r20023",
       "r20024",
       "r20031",
       "r20032",
       "r20033",
       "r20034",
       "r20041",
       "r20042",
       "r20043",
       "r20044",
       "r20051",
       "r20052",
       "r20053",
       "r20054",
       "r20061",
       "r20062",
       "r20063",
       "r20064",
       "r20071",
       "r20072",
       "r20073",
       "r20074",
       "r20081",
       "r20082",
       "r20083",
       "r20084",
       "r20091",
       "r20092",
       "r20093",
       "r20094",
       "r20101",
       "r20102",
       "r20103",
       "r20104"
     ],
     "dataset": "castle",
     "fe": [
       "sid",
       "year"
     ],
     "intercept": true,
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "weights": "popwt",
     "x": [
       "cdl"
     ],
     "y": "l_homicide"
   }

   Figuras call_99bea445

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.cdl Coefficient on cdl in the regression of l_homicide	0,0945877	0.09458774356441414	0,02931480.02931477649721158	0,0356775 – 0,153498

   Diagnósticos

   • n_obs = 550550
   • k = 9191
   • r2 = 0,9410940.9410942083740509
   • df_resid = 459459
   • se_type = "cluster"
   • n_clusters = 5050
   • fixed_effects = "sid (50 levels), year (11 levels)"

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.7170241139453665,
         "ci_low": 0.6074444008129366,
         "coef": 0.6622342573791515,
         "p": 5.581410919587254e-29,
         "se": 0.027264396751068884,
         "t": 24.289342009857197,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.15349799249518875,
         "ci_low": 0.03567749463363953,
         "coef": 0.09458774356441414,
         "p": 0.0022346189185407472,
         "se": 0.02931477649721158,
         "t": 3.2266233915653872,
         "term": "cdl"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.04130516522939305,
         "ci_low": -0.26757756290304957,
         "coef": -0.11313619883682825,
         "p": 0.14738362206316283,
         "se": 0.07685274042630379,
         "t": -1.4721166507434784,
         "term": "r20001"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6585901024992312,
         "ci_low": 0.40008838908433997,
         "coef": 0.5293392457917856,
         "p": 8.516884244881672e-11,
         "se": 0.06431750069337329,
         "t": 8.230096631325168,
         "term": "r20002"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.4178788692125117,
         "ci_low": 1.285010802050321,
         "coef": 1.3514448356314164,
         "p": 1.5808072890898486e-39,
         "se": 0.03305874413341154,
         "t": 40.880102104833114,
         "term": "r20003"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.29354723322355625,
         "ci_low": 0.14213027114338347,
         "coef": 0.21783875218346987,
         "p": 5.058824380849046e-7,
         "se": 0.03767387238919159,
         "t": 5.7822235509288,
         "term": "r20004"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.04686220379602258,
         "ci_low": -0.1635631077987646,
         "coef": -0.058350452001371005,
         "p": 0.27050102317084834,
         "se": 0.05235566892618272,
         "t": -1.1145011265855556,
         "term": "r20011"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6578638052220248,
         "ci_low": 0.4288788170163639,
         "coef": 0.5433713111191943,
         "p": 9.472717550586183e-13,
         "se": 0.05697347976201562,
         "t": 9.53726739860221,
         "term": "r20012"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.4013544150580517,
         "ci_low": 1.2532726320946248,
         "coef": 1.3273135235763383,
         "p": 6.369771707349383e-37,
         "se": 0.03684405048077914,
         "t": 36.02517926927641,
         "term": "r20013"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.3437947255921708,
         "ci_low": 0.23618751506970673,
         "coef": 0.28999112033093877,
         "p": 1.3300905535553161e-14,
         "se": 0.02677362074688614,
         "t": 10.831225371886456,
         "term": "r20014"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.0021025596219160503,
         "ci_low": -0.18409791605003123,
         "coef": -0.09310023783597364,
         "p": 0.04512912427935368,
         "se": 0.045282045943227045,
         "t": -2.056007759735487,
         "term": "r20021"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6014855754504991,
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         "coef": 0.5062616667258203,
         "p": 2.138841141014404e-14,
         "se": 0.04738509261325791,
         "t": 10.68398601344451,
         "term": "r20022"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.3895378204249418,
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         "coef": 1.3286790996359399,
         "p": 5.424094587897909e-41,
         "se": 0.030284370380648715,
         "t": 43.87342655421184,
         "term": "r20023"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.40020179933925604,
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         "coef": 0.3044731078796148,
         "p": 5.8124973111515276e-8,
         "se": 0.047636281384713736,
         "t": 6.391622079411908,
         "term": "r20024"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.04126612643315937,
         "ci_low": -0.14677054249508154,
         "coef": -0.052752208030961076,
         "p": 0.26500491204438154,
         "se": 0.04678517764700838,
         "t": -1.1275410436393682,
         "term": "r20031"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5951965484462588,
         "ci_low": 0.4303169647607855,
         "coef": 0.5127567566035222,
         "p": 7.434714378823912e-17,
         "se": 0.04102349109382204,
         "t": 12.499100952447732,
         "term": "r20032"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.4257673596285092,
         "ci_low": 1.2856108697164559,
         "coef": 1.3556891146724825,
         "p": 1.7266656673845364e-38,
         "se": 0.034872167839874596,
         "t": 38.875963229401506,
         "term": "r20033"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.4013295003390475,
         "ci_low": 0.21818721849119166,
         "coef": 0.3097583594151196,
         "p": 1.3647239944908426e-8,
         "se": 0.04556741107874172,
         "t": 6.797804660875922,
         "term": "r20034"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.008029635925826645,
         "ci_low": -0.12182277234602859,
         "coef": -0.05689656821010097,
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         "se": 0.03230842166858971,
         "t": -1.7610444977389872,
         "term": "r20041"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5256172065080785,
         "ci_low": 0.39279234307623284,
         "coef": 0.4592047747921557,
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         "t": 13.895087415878733,
         "term": "r20042"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.3843427372114967,
         "ci_low": 1.2504693232299269,
         "coef": 1.3174060302207118,
         "p": 7.618370125735856e-39,
         "se": 0.0333088832674943,
         "t": 39.55119178391522,
         "term": "r20043"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.3834688800577876,
         "ci_low": 0.24936838537262146,
         "coef": 0.31641863271520454,
         "p": 1.1360805465085385e-12,
         "se": 0.033365382944490846,
         "t": 9.483440763788694,
         "term": "r20044"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.07482578794971759,
         "ci_low": -0.09624539063438378,
         "coef": -0.0107098013423331,
         "p": 0.8023899451288706,
         "se": 0.04256401438059208,
         "t": -0.2516163359632838,
         "term": "r20051"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.6187043002085622,
         "ci_low": 0.42084039187590494,
         "coef": 0.5197723460422335,
         "p": 3.218593914139947e-14,
         "se": 0.049230281274592606,
         "t": 10.557980425565521,
         "term": "r20052"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.4142678518886522,
         "ci_low": 1.2398681615532832,
         "coef": 1.3270680067209677,
         "p": 1.3904584670790904e-33,
         "se": 0.04339217738981157,
         "t": 30.58311627921584,
         "term": "r20053"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.40710622094671906,
         "ci_low": 0.23893617718114352,
         "coef": 0.3230211990639313,
         "p": 5.132378643569313e-10,
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         "term": "r20054"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.07138243773963984,
         "ci_low": -0.07596415729759165,
         "coef": -0.0022908597789759043,
         "p": 0.9504288742699749,
         "se": 0.03666112925628059,
         "t": -0.0624874308415758,
         "term": "r20061"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5825772080618905,
         "ci_low": 0.4183179392501746,
         "coef": 0.5004475736560325,
         "p": 1.6004521590823364e-16,
         "se": 0.04086915129546657,
         "t": 12.24511784054456,
         "term": "r20062"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.371391297870515,
         "ci_low": 1.24478638005183,
         "coef": 1.3080888389611725,
         "p": 7.48888368285691e-40,
         "se": 0.031500417471192865,
         "t": 41.52607946092841,
         "term": "r20063"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.3645091120720312,
         "ci_low": 0.22673808325944458,
         "coef": 0.29562359766573787,
         "p": 2.156548318625243e-11,
         "se": 0.0342786441301392,
         "t": 8.624133339212602,
         "term": "r20064"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.01264865774665501,
         "ci_low": -0.20537669469368847,
         "coef": -0.09636401847351674,
         "p": 0.0818748952072628,
         "se": 0.054246625956588135,
         "t": -1.7764057537999474,
         "term": "r20071"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5277614379115028,
         "ci_low": 0.3685145022912892,
         "coef": 0.44813797010139594,
         "p": 2.890054463763017e-15,
         "se": 0.03962203869701946,
         "t": 11.31032084260487,
         "term": "r20072"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.3980864701844686,
         "ci_low": 1.2636480333017224,
         "coef": 1.3308672517430955,
         "p": 5.739852846801054e-39,
         "se": 0.03344946593659193,
         "t": 39.78739912517401,
         "term": "r20073"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.30536608863963155,
         "ci_low": 0.17433601781091856,
         "coef": 0.23985105322527506,
         "p": 1.8596616352960696e-9,
         "se": 0.032601434474256064,
         "t": 7.3570705428521865,
         "term": "r20074"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.01776844061531617,
         "ci_low": -0.1658443833095704,
         "coef": -0.07403797134712711,
         "p": 0.11151400244698377,
         "se": 0.04568448608751395,
         "t": -1.6206370627722233,
         "term": "r20081"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5442763688530045,
         "ci_low": 0.3195695693085765,
         "coef": 0.4319229690807905,
         "p": 5.033988147764319e-10,
         "se": 0.055909028781980515,
         "t": 7.725460064153347,
         "term": "r20082"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.3290943918909497,
         "ci_low": 1.1678289725413047,
         "coef": 1.2484616822161272,
         "p": 6.2220470619809355e-34,
         "se": 0.04012425520828455,
         "t": 31.114887385083584,
         "term": "r20083"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.21997218014190584,
         "ci_low": 0.09477194987062874,
         "coef": 0.1573720650062673,
         "p": 0.0000064724756261509495,
         "se": 0.031150918850426017,
         "t": 5.051923693227273,
         "term": "r20084"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.08442083045321432,
         "ci_low": -0.25302800649212154,
         "coef": -0.16872441847266792,
         "p": 0.00019907463216664646,
         "se": 0.04195094886812237,
         "t": -4.021945224721199,
         "term": "r20091"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.4363018626977542,
         "ci_low": 0.25004081918753085,
         "coef": 0.3431713409426425,
         "p": 1.5685067685045942e-9,
         "se": 0.04634338642038226,
         "t": 7.4049690247002005,
         "term": "r20092"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.2558353426219833,
         "ci_low": 1.1075220413430562,
         "coef": 1.1816786919825197,
         "p": 1.6228191619106924e-34,
         "se": 0.03690165427466127,
         "t": 32.02237718632376,
         "term": "r20093"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.1698517728331999,
         "ci_low": 0.0332454975798739,
         "coef": 0.10154863520653691,
         "p": 0.004382307065091123,
         "se": 0.03398884319665326,
         "t": 2.9877049542108565,
         "term": "r20094"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.009964905656439246,
         "ci_low": -0.170017202407366,
         "coef": -0.08002614837546339,
         "p": 0.08011575393755486,
         "se": 0.04478113203686693,
         "t": -1.7870505888413075,
         "term": "r20101"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.37528081643095396,
         "ci_low": 0.24039752768478045,
         "coef": 0.3078391720578672,
         "p": 3.2638673172947673e-12,
         "se": 0.0335601489941874,
         "t": 9.172759397200078,
         "term": "r20102"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 1.1618998024556495,
         "ci_low": 1.0169129701501172,
         "coef": 1.0894063863028833,
         "p": 2.5043724673835903e-33,
         "se": 0.036073999526549654,
         "t": 30.199212746041777,
         "term": "r20103"
       }
     ]
   }

   • dropped as collinear with the other regressors: ['r20104', 'sid[46]', 'sid[50]', 'sid[51]', 'year[2001]', 'year[2002]', 'year[2003]', 'year[2004]', '…']

   Digests dos dados

   castle 6a9af2b4a14b985d82e0f3aea93c535c24cfc2497c4d9f07242bac5f84ae11c1

   sha256 do resultado

   0ebb9a1880660274b3757a56b0007b9934ad65d08b28295c116b408f95712195

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_167bf597referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.cdl = 0,09459.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_99bea445:coef.cdl"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,09459

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.cdl = 0,09459.

   Figuras citadas: call_99bea445:coef.cdl · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_99bea445:coef.cdl = 0,09458770.09458774356441414 (se 0,02931480.02931477649721158)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_99bea445:coef.cdl (infer.ols)
9. 8Pontuação
   #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.ols
10. 9Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.y = 'l_homicide'
11. 10Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.x = ['cdl']
12. 11Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.weights = 'popwt'
13. 12Pontuação
    #6diagnósticopassouobrigatória550 vs 550
14. 13Pontuação
    #7figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.09458774356 vs 0.09458774356441493
15. 14Pontuação
    #8figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.0293147765 vs 0.02931477649721159
16. 15Pontuação
    #9figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.09458774356 vs 0.0946
17. 16Pontuação
    #10figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.0293147765 vs 0.0279

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