Tarefa paper_repro.fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c2.agent

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Pergunta feita ao analista

Fujiwara, T. (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil', Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (2): estimate the jump in valid votes as a share of turnout in the 1994 state legislature elections, when every municipality still voted on paper ballots at the threshold of 40,500 registered voters in 1996, above which municipalities voted electronically in the 1998 elections, as a sharp regression discontinuity. This is a placebo: the 1994 election had no discontinuous assignment. Use a local linear regression on each side of the threshold with a rectangular kernel (unweighted observations), a bandwidth of 10,000 registered voters, and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. Report the jump at the threshold.

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1. 0Início

   Fujiwara, T. (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil', Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (2): estimate the jump in valid votes as a share of turnout in the 1994 state legislature elections, when every municipality still voted on paper ballots at the threshold of 40,500 registered voters in 1996, above which municipalities voted electronically in the 1998 elections, as a sharp regression discontinuity. This is a placebo: the 1994 election had no discontinuous assignment. Use a local linear regression on each side of the threshold with a rectangular kernel (unweighted observations), a bandwidth of 10,000 registered voters, and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. Report the jump at the threshold.

   munic (agent)

   The author's municipality file for Fujiwara (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil': one row per Brazilian municipality (5,281 rows). In the 1998 elections, municipalities with more than 40,500 registered voters in 1996 used electronic voting and the others paper ballots; in 1994 every municipality used paper ballots and in 2002 every one voted electronically. Columns: uf, state; voters96, number of registered voters in 1996; r_util98, r_util94, r_util02, valid votes as a share of turnout in the state legislature elections of 1998, 1994 and 2002; attend, turnout as a share of registered voters (1998); regist, registered voters as a share of population (1998); null_est_share and blank_est_share, null and blank votes as a share of turnout (state legislature, 1998); util_pres_share, util_gov_share, util_fed_share, util_sen_share, valid votes as a share of turnout in the presidential, gubernatorial, federal lower chamber and senate elections (1998); right, vote-weighted party ideology; right_meas, votes for parties with measured ideology over total valid votes; right_state, state average of right; illiter, illiteracy rate (percent); less4 and less8, shares without 4 and without 8 years of schooling; gini, Gini index; income, monthly income; latitude; longitude; urbanization, share of urban population; population91 and population00, population in 1991 and 2000 (thousands). The schooling, income, inequality and urbanization variables come from the 1991 census.

   file 5cd5b8796355e025807dc303263b1fbb16f442c3c7551f14ee3557768a310894 · frame —
2. 1Turno do modelo
   call_5a9fecf4referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (2): local linear RD at 40,500 voters, rectangular kernel, bandwidth 10,000, robust errors (munic.do: reg y treat dep deptreat if bw<h, rob).

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.rdd

     {
       "bandwidth": 10000,
       "cutoff": 40500,
       "dataset": "munic",
       "kernel": "uniform",
       "polynomial": 1,
       "running": "voters96",
       "y": "r_util94"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
3. 2Ferramenta
   infer.rddv0.1.0call_8b1fd0c0decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (2): local linear RD at 40,500 voters, rectangular kernel, bandwidth 10,000, robust errors (munic.do: reg y treat dep deptreat if bw<h, rob).

   Argumentos

   {
     "bandwidth": 10000,
     "cluster": null,
     "cutoff": 40500,
     "dataset": "munic",
     "kernel": "uniform",
     "level": 0.95,
     "polynomial": 1,
     "running": "voters96",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "r_util94"
   }

   Figuras call_8b1fd0c0

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   effect Jump in r_util94 at the cutoff of voters96	-0,00770347	-0.007703474073160969	0,02349470.02349471240463436	-0,0537523 – 0,0383453

   Diagnósticos

   • bandwidth = 10.00010000
   • bandwidth_method = "user"
   • n_left = 151151
   • n_right = 7878
   • kernel = "uniform"
   • polynomial = 11
   • bandwidth_sensitive = false
   • n_obs = 4.8094809
   • se_type = "HC1"

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "sensitivity": [
       {
         "bandwidth": 5000,
         "ci_high": 0.0706310014731179,
         "ci_low": -0.05789063390782301,
         "estimate": 0.006370183782647448,
         "multiplier": 0.5,
         "n_left": 75,
         "n_right": 41,
         "se": 0.03278673393865989
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 10000,
         "ci_high": 0.03834531606704883,
         "ci_low": -0.05375226421337077,
         "estimate": -0.007703474073160969,
         "multiplier": 1,
         "n_left": 151,
         "n_right": 78,
         "se": 0.02349471240463436
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 20000,
         "ci_high": 0.028315478835965614,
         "ci_low": -0.040398534118288594,
         "estimate": -0.006041527641161491,
         "multiplier": 2,
         "n_left": 427,
         "n_right": 130,
         "se": 0.01752940704427775
       }
     ]
   }

   • 472 rows were dropped because one of 'r_util94', 'voters96' was missing

   Digests dos dados

   munic 4849fb53b02d5e1e529b6e802d6e90e871843cf5f89da8ad229cd022bbd01f2e

   sha256 do resultado

   81bf0248f23cce719b1937f8ca878d89a1f2bb4939c0b5657c4f3fd4b43b4990

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_65ffa4d0referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = -0,007703.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_8b1fd0c0:effect"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,007703

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
6. 5Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = -0,007703.

   Figuras citadas: call_8b1fd0c0:effect · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_8b1fd0c0:effect = -0,00770347-0.007703474073160969 (se 0,02349470.02349471240463436)
7. 6Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
8. 7Pontuação
   #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_8b1fd0c0:effect (infer.rdd)
9. 8Pontuação
   #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.rdd
10. 9Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.y = 'r_util94'
11. 10Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.running = 'voters96'
12. 11Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.cutoff = 40500.0
13. 12Pontuação
    #6argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.bandwidth = 10000.0
14. 13Pontuação
    #7argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.kernel = 'uniform'
15. 14Pontuação
    #8argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.polynomial = 1
16. 15Pontuação
    #9diagnósticopassouobrigatória151 vs 151
17. 16Pontuação
    #10diagnósticopassouobrigatória78 vs 78
18. 17Pontuação
    #11figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-0.007703474073 vs -0.007703474073156483
19. 18Pontuação
    #12figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.0234947124 vs 0.023494712404621705
20. 19Pontuação
    #13figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada-0.007703474073 vs -0.008
21. 20Pontuação
    #14figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.0234947124 vs 0.023

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• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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