Tarefa paper_repro.fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.agent
paper_reproagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9dfVeredito
Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): rd (regression discontinuity)
Pergunta feita ao analista
Fujiwara, T. (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil', Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (3): estimate the jump in valid votes as a share of turnout in the 1994 state legislature elections, when every municipality still voted on paper ballots at the threshold of 40,500 registered voters in 1996, above which municipalities voted electronically in the 1998 elections, as a sharp regression discontinuity. This is a placebo: the 1994 election had no discontinuous assignment. Use a local linear regression on each side of the threshold with a rectangular kernel (unweighted observations), a bandwidth of 5,000 registered voters, and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. Report the jump at the threshold.
Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,006370.
Valores esperados e de onde vêm
fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.software
- Fonte
- statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of fujiwara_2015 tab2_pb_valid94_c3 (infer.rdd, figure 'effect') on an independent code path
- Tipo
- software
- Localização
- fujiwara_2015: Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), row 'Valid Votes/Turnout (1994 Election)', column (3), bandwidth 5,000
- Valor
- 0,00637018
0.006370183782644062(se 0,03278670.03278673393864601) - Conferido por
- execução de software · sm.OLS(r_util94, [const, treat, d·(1-treat), d·treat]).fit(cov_type='HC1') with d = voters96 - 40500, rows |d| <= 5000, treat = d >= 0 on munic (munic.dta of the file pinned at sha256 5cd5b8796355e025807dc303263b1fbb16f442c3c7551f14ee3557768a310894); n_obs = 4809, n_left = 75, n_right = 41. The tool infer.rdd (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Note: the strict rule (|d| < h, treated when d > 0) selects the same rows and treatment. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
- Implementação
- independente da ferramenta
- Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
- #11 figura da resposta próxima: 0,00637018
0.006370183782644062· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.2786733938646005e-8 - #12 figura da resposta próxima: 0,0327867
0.03278673393864601· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.2786733938646005e-8
fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.paper
- Fonte
- Fujiwara, T. (2015). Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence From Brazil. Econometrica 83(2): 423-464.
- Tipo
- paper
- Localização
- Table II (treatment effects of electronic voting), Panel B (placebo tests), row 'Valid Votes/Turnout (1994 Election)', column (3), bandwidth 5000, linear
- Página
- 436
- Trecho
Valid Votes/Turnout (1994 Election) 0.006 (0.032)
- Valor como publicado
0.006- Erro-padrão como publicado
0.032- Valor
- 0,006
0.006(se 0,0320.032) share of turnout (valid votes / turnout) - Conferido por
- fonte primária · Read on 2026-10-15 from the published Econometrica version on the author's Princeton page (43-page PDF; Table II on PDF page 15) from the rendered page image; pdftotext drops this PDF's decimal-point glyph. Table II notes: robust standard errors; each cell a separate local linear regression. Data check made before any estimate: voters96 is integer-valued, no municipality has exactly 40,500 voters and none sits on a bandwidth edge, so munic.do's strict inequalities (treat if dep>0, bw<h) select the rows the tool's (running >= cutoff, |running - cutoff| <= h) select. N row: 116.
- sha256 da cópia lida
e2d693b96b22ea0dec46893e9b1f1a3a5399a23d844bcd0ec58e9e1c410a0600(identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)- Desvio conhecido
- arredondamento do artigoFound in a dry run (scripted run 20261015T062205Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-7d3f08, T1 task failed on the printed SE): on the 116 municipalities the printed N names (75 below, 41 above the threshold), the tool's HC1 SE is 0.03279 and the statsmodels reference 0.03279, which round to 0.033, not the printed 0.032; the coefficient (0.0064) matches the printed 0.006, and the other eight Table II cells of this suite match value and SE. The cause is not established: the label paper_rounding is provisional (cutting 0.03279 to three decimals, rather than rounding it, would give the printed 0.032, one possibility among others), as noted at the B-join review.
- Endereço
https://www.princeton.edu/~fujiwara/papers/elecvote_site.pdf- Licença
- Copyright The Econometric Society; cited, not reproduced.
- #13 figura da resposta próxima: 0,006
0.006· published_cell d=3 · absoluta 0.000500001 - #14 figura da resposta próxima: 0,032
0.032· published_cell d=3 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.000500001
Verificações
| # | Verificação | Obrigatória | Resultado | Esperado | Observado | Tolerância | Fonte | Chamada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | resposta com lastro every number backed | obrigatória | passou | — | [] | — | — | — |
| 1 | figura da resposta escolhida answer figure call_c319bb1a:effect (infer.rdd) | obrigatória | passou | — | "call_c319bb1a:effect" | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 2 | ferramenta chamada answer call is infer.rdd | obrigatória | passou | — | "infer.rdd" | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 3 | argumento igual infer.rdd.y = 'r_util94' | obrigatória | passou | "r_util94" | "r_util94" | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 4 | argumento igual infer.rdd.running = 'voters96' | obrigatória | passou | "voters96" | "voters96" | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 5 | argumento igual infer.rdd.cutoff = 40500.0 | obrigatória | passou | 40.50040500 | 40.50040500 | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 6 | argumento igual infer.rdd.bandwidth = 5000.0 | obrigatória | passou | 5.0005000 | 5.0005000 | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 7 | argumento igual infer.rdd.kernel = 'uniform' | obrigatória | passou | "uniform" | "uniform" | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 8 | argumento igual infer.rdd.polynomial = 1 | obrigatória | passou | 11 | 11 | — | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 9 | diagnóstico 75 vs 75 | obrigatória | passou | 7575 | 7575 | default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6) | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 10 | diagnóstico 41 vs 41 | obrigatória | passou | 4141 | 4141 | default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6) | — | call_c319bb1a |
| 11 | figura da resposta próxima 0.006370183783 vs 0.006370183782644062 | obrigatória | passou | 0,006370180.006370183782644062 | 0,006370180.006370183782647448 | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.2786733938646005e-8 | fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.software | call_c319bb1a |
| 12 | figura da resposta próxima 0.03278673394 vs 0.03278673393864601 | obrigatória | passou | 0,03278670.03278673393864601 | 0,03278670.03278673393865989 | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.2786733938646005e-8 | fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.software | call_c319bb1a |
| 13 | figura da resposta próxima 0.006370183783 vs 0.006 | registrada | passou | 0,0060.006 | 0,006370180.006370183782647448 | published_cell d=3 · absoluta 0.000500001 | fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.paper | call_c319bb1a |
| 14 | figura da resposta próxima 0.03278673394 vs 0.032 | registrada | falhou | 0,0320.032 | 0,03278670.03278673393865989 | published_cell d=3 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.000500001 | fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.paper | call_c319bb1a |
Caminho de referência e caminho do agente
A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.
a tarefa T1 do mesmo alvo (paper_repro.fujiwara_2015.tab2_pb_valid94_c3.tool)
| Argumento | Referência | Agente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| bandwidth | 5.0005000 | 5.0005000 | igual |
| cluster | — | — | não fixado pela referência |
| cutoff | 40.50040500 | 40.50040500 | igual |
| dataset | "munic" | "munic" | igual |
| kernel | "uniform" | "uniform" | igual |
| level | — | 0,950.95 | não fixado pela referência |
| polynomial | 11 | 11 | igual |
| running | "voters96" | "voters96" | igual |
| subset | — | — | não fixado pela referência |
| y | "r_util94" | "r_util94" | igual |
Trajetória
Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.
- 0Início
Fujiwara, T. (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil', Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (3): estimate the jump in valid votes as a share of turnout in the 1994 state legislature elections, when every municipality still voted on paper ballots at the threshold of 40,500 registered voters in 1996, above which municipalities voted electronically in the 1998 elections, as a sharp regression discontinuity. This is a placebo: the 1994 election had no discontinuous assignment. Use a local linear regression on each side of the threshold with a rectangular kernel (unweighted observations), a bandwidth of 5,000 registered voters, and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. Report the jump at the threshold.
munic(agent)The author's municipality file for Fujiwara (2015), 'Voting Technology, Political Responsiveness, and Infant Health: Evidence from Brazil': one row per Brazilian municipality (5,281 rows). In the 1998 elections, municipalities with more than 40,500 registered voters in 1996 used electronic voting and the others paper ballots; in 1994 every municipality used paper ballots and in 2002 every one voted electronically. Columns: uf, state; voters96, number of registered voters in 1996; r_util98, r_util94, r_util02, valid votes as a share of turnout in the state legislature elections of 1998, 1994 and 2002; attend, turnout as a share of registered voters (1998); regist, registered voters as a share of population (1998); null_est_share and blank_est_share, null and blank votes as a share of turnout (state legislature, 1998); util_pres_share, util_gov_share, util_fed_share, util_sen_share, valid votes as a share of turnout in the presidential, gubernatorial, federal lower chamber and senate elections (1998); right, vote-weighted party ideology; right_meas, votes for parties with measured ideology over total valid votes; right_state, state average of right; illiter, illiteracy rate (percent); less4 and less8, shares without 4 and without 8 years of schooling; gini, Gini index; income, monthly income; latitude; longitude; urbanization, share of urban population; population91 and population00, population in 1991 and 2000 (thousands). The schooling, income, inequality and urbanization variables come from the 1991 census.
file5cd5b8796355e025807dc303263b1fbb16f442c3c7551f14ee3557768a310894· frame — - 1Turno do modelo
call_74c33694referenceFim:tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cacheTexto visívelTable II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (3): local linear RD at 40,500 voters, rectangular kernel, bandwidth 5,000, robust errors (munic.do: reg y treat dep deptreat if bw<h, rob).
Chamadas pedidasinfer.rdd{ "bandwidth": 5000, "cutoff": 40500, "dataset": "munic", "kernel": "uniform", "polynomial": 1, "running": "voters96", "y": "r_util94" }
- 2Ferramenta
infer.rddv0.1.0call_c319bb1adecidido pelo modeloreexecutávelMotivo: Table II, Panel B (placebo tests), column (3): local linear RD at 40,500 voters, rectangular kernel, bandwidth 5,000, robust errors (munic.do: reg y treat dep deptreat if bw<h, rob).
Argumentos
{ "bandwidth": 5000, "cluster": null, "cutoff": 40500, "dataset": "munic", "kernel": "uniform", "level": 0.95, "polynomial": 1, "running": "voters96", "subset": null, "y": "r_util94" }Figuras call_c319bb1a Chave Valor Valor bruto Erro-padrão IC effect Jump in r_util94 at the cutoff of voters960,00637018 0.0063701837826474480,0327867 0.03278673393865989-0,0578906 – 0,070631 Diagnósticosbandwidth= 5.0005000bandwidth_method="user"n_left= 7575n_right= 4141kernel="uniform"polynomial= 11bandwidth_sensitive=falsen_obs= 4.8094809se_type="HC1"
Tabelas (1)
{ "sensitivity": [ { "bandwidth": 2500, "ci_high": 0.0766836341726126, "ci_low": -0.086128892501157, "estimate": -0.004722629164272202, "multiplier": 0.5, "n_left": 43, "n_right": 18, "se": 0.04153457103243071 }, { "bandwidth": 5000, "ci_high": 0.0706310014731179, "ci_low": -0.05789063390782301, "estimate": 0.006370183782647448, "multiplier": 1, "n_left": 75, "n_right": 41, "se": 0.03278673393865989 }, { "bandwidth": 10000, "ci_high": 0.03834531606704883, "ci_low": -0.05375226421337077, "estimate": -0.007703474073160969, "multiplier": 2, "n_left": 151, "n_right": 78, "se": 0.02349471240463436 } ] }- 472 rows were dropped because one of 'r_util94', 'voters96' was missing
- Digests dos dados
munic4849fb53b02d5e1e529b6e802d6e90e871843cf5f89da8ad229cd022bbd01f2e- sha256 do resultado
b4b8b7d1fe4874b51c7413f823aa0b02e2060da08dca1f8a4acfb29b432c18ef
- 3Turno do modelo
call_e64200eareferenceFim:tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cacheChamadas pedidassubmit_answer(meta-ferramenta){ "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,006370.", "caveats": [], "figure_refs": [ "call_c319bb1a:effect" ] }
- 4Guardaresposta aceita
- Números encontrados
- 0,006370
- Sem lastro
- —
- Não citados
- —
1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s) - 5Resposta
Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,006370.
Figuras citadas:call_c319bb1a:effect· Parada:answeredFigura da resposta:call_c319bb1a:effect= 0,006370180.006370183782647448(se 0,03278670.03278673393865989) - 6Pontuação#0resposta com lastropassouobrigatória
every number backed - 7Pontuação#1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatória
answer figure call_c319bb1a:effect (infer.rdd) - 8Pontuação#2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatória
answer call is infer.rdd - 9Pontuação#3argumento igualpassouobrigatória
infer.rdd.y = 'r_util94' - 10Pontuação#4argumento igualpassouobrigatória
infer.rdd.running = 'voters96' - 11Pontuação#5argumento igualpassouobrigatória
infer.rdd.cutoff = 40500.0 - 12Pontuação#6argumento igualpassouobrigatória
infer.rdd.bandwidth = 5000.0 - 13Pontuação#7argumento igualpassouobrigatória
infer.rdd.kernel = 'uniform' - 14Pontuação#8argumento igualpassouobrigatória
infer.rdd.polynomial = 1 - 15Pontuação#9diagnósticopassouobrigatória
75 vs 75 - 16Pontuação#10diagnósticopassouobrigatória
41 vs 41 - 17Pontuação#11figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória
0.006370183783 vs 0.006370183782644062 - 18Pontuação#12figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória
0.03278673394 vs 0.03278673393864601 - 19Pontuação#13figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada
0.006370183783 vs 0.006 - 20Pontuação#14figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
0.03278673394 vs 0.032
Épocas × verificações
| # | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Época 1 | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | passou | falhou |
Tentativas
Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.
- época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)
Downloads desta tarefa
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