Pular para o conteúdo

Tarefa paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.agent

paper_reproagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): rd (regression discontinuity)

Pergunta feita ao analista

Manacorda, Miguel and Vigorito (2011), on Uruguay's PANES cash transfers, as replicated in Huntington-Klein's 'The Effect', chapter 20, Table 20.1, column 'Linear with Kernel Weight': households qualified for Uruguay's PANES cash transfers when their income measure fell below the eligibility cutoff, so treatment is on the low-income side of the cutoff ('you need low income to get paid'). Estimate, as a sharp regression discontinuity at the cutoff, the effect of receiving the payments on the household's backing for the government: fit a straight line in income on each side of the cutoff, weighting each household by one minus 100 times the distance of its income measure from the cutoff (weights that fall linearly from one at the cutoff to zero at a distance of 0.01, households beyond it weighing nothing). Report the effect of being on the eligible side of the cutoff, with a positive sign meaning more backing among the eligible households.

Resposta

Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,03348.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.software

Fonte
statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of mmv_2011 tab20_1_c2 (infer.rdd, figure 'effect') on an independent code path
Tipo
software
Localização
mmv_2011: Table 20.1 (The Effect of Government Payments on Support, Regression Discontinuity Estimates), column 'Linear with Kernel Weight', row 'Participation'
Valor
0,03348180.03348175396085784 (se 0,04419590.04419589592144583)
Conferido por
execução de software · sm.WLS(weights=1 - |d|/h)(Support, [const, treat, d·(1-treat), d·treat]).fit(cov_type='HC1') with d = Income_Below - 0, rows |d| <= 0.01, treat = d >= 0 on gov_transfers (the file pinned at sha256 51312ecd5b3cb22b5dc027966a81e0a8579f24a708ce4b476674fc527652ebd0, after its 1 declared transforms); n_obs = 1948, n_left = 400, n_right = 537. The tool infer.rdd (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Note: the strict rule (|d| < h, treated when d > 0) selects the same rows and treatment. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
  • #11 figura da resposta próxima: 0,03348180.03348175396085784 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.419589592144583e-8
  • #12 figura da resposta próxima: 0,04419590.04419589592144583 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.419589592144583e-8

mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.paper

Fonte
Huntington-Klein, N. (2021). The Effect: An Introduction to Research Design and Causality. CRC Press; online edition, chapter 20 (Regression Discontinuity), replicating Manacorda, Miguel and Vigorito (2011), AEJ: Applied 3(3): 1-28.
Tipo
textbook
Localização
Table 20.1 (The Effect of Government Payments on Support, Regression Discontinuity Estimates), column 'Linear with Kernel Weight', row 'Participation'
Página
online edition, chapter 20, Table 20.1
Trecho
Participation 0.033 (0.021)
Valor como publicado
0.033
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.021
Valor
0,0330.033 (se 0,0210.021) support for the government (0, 0.5, 1)
Conferido por
fonte primária · Read on 2026-10-15 from the free online edition of The Effect (theeffectbook.net, chapter 20); read_copy_sha256 is the sha256 of the chapter's decompressed HTML as served that day. Table 20.1 is a modelsummary table of the R code printed above it: Support on Income_Centered*Participation plus I(Income_Centered^2)*Participation (column 'Quadratic', all 1,948 households) and Support on Income_Centered*Participation weighted by max(0, 1 - 100|Income_Centered|) (column 'Linear with Kernel Weight', Num.Obs. 937); the table's last rows state 'Std.Errors HC3 HC3'. Data check made before any estimate: Participation equals (Income_Centered <= 0) on every row, no row has Income_Centered exactly 0 or exactly 0.01 in absolute value, every |Income_Centered| is below 0.02, and 937 rows lie strictly within 0.01 of the cutoff (400 above it, 537 below), as the table's Num.Obs.
sha256 da cópia lida
b6f751cfa056dc32718bdd79f6b25518a6acd9e9923a8fd12ef29ac9342413eb (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Desvio conhecido
não conferido
Recorded before this track's software-reference run and before any dry run, from the printed table and the research probe: Table 20.1 states that its standard errors are HC3, while infer.rdd computes HC1 (its only unclustered option); the research note (research-papers.md section 3.15, 2026-10-14) already reported an HC1 error near 0.044 for this specification against the printed 0.021. The printed cell is recorded and non-required on T1. Corrected at the B-join review: the HC type does not explain the gap. The column's printed coefficients match exactly, while the HC0, HC1, HC3 and classical errors of this weighted fit (0.037 to 0.0445) all differ from the printed 0.021; the convention behind the printed SE is not documented, so the kind is unverified (SE only; it was se_convention).
Endereço
https://theeffectbook.net/ch-RegressionDiscontinuity.html
Licença
Copyright Nick Huntington-Klein (The Effect, CRC Press); cited, not reproduced.
  • #13 figura da resposta próxima: 0,0330.033 · published_cell d=3 · absoluta 0.000500001
  • #14 figura da resposta próxima: 0,0210.021 · published_cell d=3 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.000500001

Verificações

Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
#VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
0resposta com lastro
every number backed
obrigatóriapassou—[]———
1figura da resposta escolhida
answer figure call_444b13b9:effect (infer.rdd)
obrigatóriapassou—"call_444b13b9:effect"——call_444b13b9
2ferramenta chamada
answer call is infer.rdd
obrigatóriapassou—"infer.rdd"——call_444b13b9
3argumento igual
infer.rdd.y = 'Support'
obrigatóriapassou"Support""Support"——call_444b13b9
4argumento igual
infer.rdd.running = 'Income_Below'
obrigatóriapassou"Income_Below""Income_Below"——call_444b13b9
5argumento igual
infer.rdd.cutoff = 0.0
obrigatóriapassou0000——call_444b13b9
6argumento igual
infer.rdd.bandwidth = 0.01
obrigatóriapassou0,010.010,010.01——call_444b13b9
7argumento igual
infer.rdd.kernel = 'triangular'
obrigatóriapassou"triangular""triangular"——call_444b13b9
8argumento igual
infer.rdd.polynomial = 1
obrigatóriapassou1111——call_444b13b9
9diagnóstico
400 vs 400
obrigatóriapassou400400400400default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6)—call_444b13b9
10diagnóstico
537 vs 537
obrigatóriapassou537537537537default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6)—call_444b13b9
11figura da resposta próxima
0.03348175396 vs 0.03348175396085784
obrigatóriapassou0,03348180.033481753960857840,03348180.03348175396085768relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.419589592144583e-8mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.softwarecall_444b13b9
12figura da resposta próxima
0.04419589592 vs 0.04419589592144583
registradapassou0,04419590.044195895921445830,04419590.04419589592144589relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.419589592144583e-8mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.softwarecall_444b13b9
13figura da resposta próxima
0.03348175396 vs 0.033
registradapassou0,0330.0330,03348180.03348175396085768published_cell d=3 · absoluta 0.000500001mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.papercall_444b13b9
14figura da resposta próxima
0.04419589592 vs 0.021
registradafalhou0,0210.0210,04419590.04419589592144589published_cell d=3 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.000500001mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.papercall_444b13b9

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

a tarefa T1 do mesmo alvo (paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.tool)

Referência: infer.rddChamada do agente: infer.rdd (call_444b13b9)igual
Argumentos da referência e do agente
ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
bandwidth0,010.010,010.01igual
cluster——não fixado pela referência
cutoff0000igual
dataset"gov_transfers""gov_transfers"igual
kernel"triangular""triangular"igual
level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
polynomial1111igual
running"Income_Below""Income_Below"igual
subset——não fixado pela referência
y"Support""Support"igual

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

  1. 0Início

    Manacorda, Miguel and Vigorito (2011), on Uruguay's PANES cash transfers, as replicated in Huntington-Klein's 'The Effect', chapter 20, Table 20.1, column 'Linear with Kernel Weight': households qualified for Uruguay's PANES cash transfers when their income measure fell below the eligibility cutoff, so treatment is on the low-income side of the cutoff ('you need low income to get paid'). Estimate, as a sharp regression discontinuity at the cutoff, the effect of receiving the payments on the household's backing for the government: fit a straight line in income on each side of the cutoff, weighting each household by one minus 100 times the distance of its income measure from the cutoff (weights that fall linearly from one at the cutoff to zero at a distance of 0.01, households beyond it weighing nothing). Report the effect of being on the eligible side of the cutoff, with a positive sign meaning more backing among the eligible households.

    gov_transfers (agent)

    Households near the income cutoff of Uruguay's PANES cash-transfer programme, the extract of the survey of Manacorda, Miguel and Vigorito (2011), 'Government Transfers and Political Support', distributed with the causaldata R package and used in chapter 20 of Huntington-Klein's 'The Effect': one row per household (1,948 rows), only households whose income measure is within 0.02 of the cutoff. Households below the cutoff were eligible for the transfers. Columns: rownames, the row number; Income_Centered, the household's income measure minus the eligibility cutoff (negative values are below the cutoff, hence eligible); Income_Below, minus Income_Centered, added by the task author: how far below the cutoff the household's income measure is (positive values are eligible); Education, average years of education of household members aged 16 and older (missing for some households); Age, average age of household members; Participation, 1 if the household participated in the transfer programme; Support, the household's support for the government (0, 0.5 or 1; higher means more support).

    file 51312ecd5b3cb22b5dc027966a81e0a8579f24a708ce4b476674fc527652ebd0 · frame —
    1. derive {"args":{"column":"Income_Centered"},"name":"Income_Below","op":"negate"}
  2. 1Transformação
    gov_transfers · derive {"args":{"column":"Income_Centered"},"name":"Income_Below","op":"negate"}
    1948 → 1948 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 2600b9da8866 → ee25bc867239
  3. 2Turno do modelo
    call_cd5ade5creferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
    Texto visível

    Table 20.1, column 'Linear with Kernel Weight': WLS of support on participation with a line in centred income interacted with participation, weights 1 - 100|income| (a triangular kernel of bandwidth 0.01). The treated side is below the cutoff, so the running variable is the declared negation Income_Below.

    Chamadas pedidas
    • infer.rdd
      {
        "bandwidth": 0.01,
        "cutoff": 0,
        "dataset": "gov_transfers",
        "kernel": "triangular",
        "polynomial": 1,
        "running": "Income_Below",
        "y": "Support"
      }
  4. 3Ferramenta
    infer.rddv0.1.0call_444b13b9decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: Table 20.1, column 'Linear with Kernel Weight': WLS of support on participation with a line in centred income interacted with participation, weights 1 - 100|income| (a triangular kernel of bandwidth 0.01). The treated side is below the cutoff, so the running variable is the declared negation Income_Below.

    Argumentos
    {
      "bandwidth": 0.01,
      "cluster": null,
      "cutoff": 0,
      "dataset": "gov_transfers",
      "kernel": "triangular",
      "level": 0.95,
      "polynomial": 1,
      "running": "Income_Below",
      "subset": null,
      "y": "Support"
    }
    Figuras call_444b13b9
    ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
    effect
    Jump in Support at the cutoff of Income_Below
    0,0334818 0.033481753960857680,04419590.04419589592144589-0,0531406 – 0,120104
    Diagnósticos
    • bandwidth = 0,010.01
    • bandwidth_method = "user"
    • n_left = 400400
    • n_right = 537537
    • kernel = "triangular"
    • polynomial = 11
    • bandwidth_sensitive = false
    • n_obs = 1.9481948
    • se_type = "HC1"
    Tabelas (1)
    {
      "sensitivity": [
        {
          "bandwidth": 0.005,
          "ci_high": 0.11400899969691185,
          "ci_low": -0.16831958537112499,
          "estimate": -0.027155292837106566,
          "multiplier": 0.5,
          "n_left": 186,
          "n_right": 276,
          "se": 0.07202392168810465
        },
        {
          "bandwidth": 0.01,
          "ci_high": 0.12010411823137229,
          "ci_low": -0.05314061030965694,
          "estimate": 0.03348175396085768,
          "multiplier": 1,
          "n_left": 400,
          "n_right": 537,
          "se": 0.04419589592144589
        },
        {
          "bandwidth": 0.02,
          "ci_high": 0.15743353252374911,
          "ci_low": 0.0342718586238353,
          "estimate": 0.09585269557379221,
          "multiplier": 2,
          "n_left": 821,
          "n_right": 1127,
          "se": 0.03141937170055098
        }
      ]
    }
    Digests dos dados
    gov_transfers ee25bc8672392d74aa124b1f295a152c7535bd2d306ed08a52b235e4ddbe5113
    sha256 do resultado
    887da50cc9029b846f491b3d39256500aa9ebde3c18d3f457aa0f0bebc4868e9
  5. 4Turno do modelo
    call_adcb4dd6referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
    Chamadas pedidas
    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
      {
        "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,03348.",
        "caveats": [],
        "figure_refs": [
          "call_444b13b9:effect"
        ]
      }
  6. 5Guarda
    resposta aceita
    Números encontrados
    0,03348
    Sem lastro
    —
    Não citados
    —
    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
  7. 6Resposta

    Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 0,03348.

    Figuras citadas: call_444b13b9:effect · Parada: answered
    Figura da resposta: call_444b13b9:effect = 0,03348180.03348175396085768 (se 0,04419590.04419589592144589)
  8. 7Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
  9. 8Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_444b13b9:effect (infer.rdd)
  10. 9Pontuação
    #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.rdd
  11. 10Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.y = 'Support'
  12. 11Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.running = 'Income_Below'
  13. 12Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.cutoff = 0.0
  14. 13Pontuação
    #6argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.bandwidth = 0.01
  15. 14Pontuação
    #7argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.kernel = 'triangular'
  16. 15Pontuação
    #8argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.rdd.polynomial = 1
  17. 16Pontuação
    #9diagnósticopassouobrigatória400 vs 400
  18. 17Pontuação
    #10diagnósticopassouobrigatória537 vs 537
  19. 18Pontuação
    #11figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.03348175396 vs 0.03348175396085784
  20. 19Pontuação
    #12figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.04419589592 vs 0.04419589592144583
  21. 20Pontuação
    #13figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.03348175396 vs 0.033
  22. 21Pontuação
    #14figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.04419589592 vs 0.021

Épocas × verificações

Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
#01234567891011121314
Época 1passoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoufalhou

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

Downloads desta tarefa

Pacote da tarefa (.zip)
88,5 KB · sha256 0631cf2b251e66c3341f97fbaa506e849df1f5272d6ad1cead915c93c0f4d539

O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.

Downloads desta tarefa
ArquivoTamanhosha256
attachments/1941510a4610a9ea6fe7b6d8f7771c15acffbe601da4ec35ed4774650a0a570b.json528 B1941510a4610a9ea6fe7b6d8f7771c15acffbe601da4ec35ed4774650a0a570b
attachments/433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420.json2,4 KB433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420
attachments/47c27835dbd26b7058461dbca4d8aef9bb95b6a96ce9bffd344a5ba54b284863.json1,4 KB47c27835dbd26b7058461dbca4d8aef9bb95b6a96ce9bffd344a5ba54b284863
attachments/52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b.json64,0 KB52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b
attachments/6245061fc998ccc45082b0c8d59bdc474aa42a2c3c1d21e04e6e63ea81489aeb.json1,5 KB6245061fc998ccc45082b0c8d59bdc474aa42a2c3c1d21e04e6e63ea81489aeb
attachments/6b1f40a0d72458169a361bf9b8d325968ab285cfe7abbb1acbd9fc97bfb13600.json1,3 KB6b1f40a0d72458169a361bf9b8d325968ab285cfe7abbb1acbd9fc97bfb13600
attachments/df85a544a34697401197aa4230fc58b9eaf8a3302475a840e1637961f72c1007.json975 Bdf85a544a34697401197aa4230fc58b9eaf8a3302475a840e1637961f72c1007
native/paper_repro/paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.agent.e1.a1.json36 B39a1ffcef98d10bf196fee2aa93ee0343ff9c7c2b32629831f61ccb9c4e8fdd7
sources/mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.paper.json2,9 KB4fb38d0f878f500514322bdc3defabee0017164ac1a315d3f7dac239abe70ff4
sources/mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.software.json1,4 KB8468ad5147c0b056840c6447f8a9a97c76fd843d855294f03517da1f7b685fe5
specs/paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.agent.json11,3 KBcfe362a47baf5a5efb9574fd718e9993957c5497010fc1239d9a09dc56e3902d
traces/paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.agent.e1.a1.jsonl15,5 KB2438c8b71992673eac5f9c1b2fc10ef13370cbead368befbf3780ddbbede12f7
trajectories/paper_repro.mmv_2011.tab20_1_c2.agent.e1.a1.jsonl18,8 KB5b61f96d5ad1a20ec357b49be7aaaa6f32cd67779207d74d15ade9a304149836