Pular para o conteúdo

Tarefa paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design

paper_reproagentT3designépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T165744Z-suite-paper_repro-scripted-def9df

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): ols (regression)

Pergunta feita ao analista

In the Solow growth model, how does income per working-age person in 1985 vary across the non-oil-producing countries with the share of output that is invested, holding the growth of the working-age population (plus technological progress and depreciation, assumed to total 0.05) fixed? Report the elasticity of income with respect to the investment share.

Resposta

Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.ls = 1,424.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.software

Fonte
statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of mrw_1992 tab1_nonoil_ls (infer.ols, figure 'coef.ls') on an independent code path
Tipo
software
Localização
mrw_1992: Table I (Estimation of the textbook Solow model), unrestricted regression, column 'Non-oil', row 'ln(I/GDP)'
Valor
1,424011.4240142833694192 (se 0,1431060.14310581649732004)
Conferido por
execução de software · sm.OLS(ly, add_constant(['ls', 'lngd'])).fit(cov_type='nonrobust') on growthdj (the file pinned at sha256 3d06303f1da9959175e990eb068bf242fac0e9bc1f9daad1f5fffe96d100e796, after its 7 declared transforms, rows where oil == 'no'); n_obs = 98. The tool infer.ols (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
  • #7 figura da resposta próxima: 1,424011.4240142833694192 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7
  • #8 figura da resposta próxima: 0,1431060.14310581649732004 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7

mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.paper

Fonte
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D. and Weil, D. N. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2): 407-437.
Tipo
paper
Localização
Table I (Estimation of the textbook Solow model), unrestricted regression, column 'Non-oil' (N = 98), row 'ln(I/GDP)'
Página
414
Trecho
ln(I/GDP) Non-oil 1.42 (0.14)
Valor como publicado
1.42
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.14
Valor
1,421.42 (se 0,140.14) elasticity of GDP per working-age person
Conferido por
fonte primária · Read on 2026-10-15 from the QJE copy on David Romer's Berkeley page (31-page PDF) with pdftotext -layout and from the rendered page image; Table I is on PDF page 8 (journal page 414). The note says 'Standard errors are in parentheses' and '(g + δ) is assumed to be 0.05'. Observations as printed: 98; the replication file has 98 complete rows in this sample.
sha256 da cópia lida
1bd560f2d4c6bc80f72557fff2f03e785b04aacd7f032c41ef210faaf830c80f (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Desvio conhecido
versão dos dados
Recorded before this track's software-reference run and before any dry run on this target; from the data's provenance. The file is Durlauf and Johnson's transcription of the MRW data appendix (R package AER, GrowthDJ), whose population growth and investment shares are printed rounded to one decimal of a percent, while MRW estimated on the unrounded Summers-Heston data; the research probe of 2026-10-14 (research-papers.md section 3.5) already found the constant off by about 0.05 and some slopes off by 0.01 to 0.02 on this file. Every MRW cell is therefore a data_version deviation: the printed cell is recorded and counted in replication fidelity, and non-required on T1.
Endereço
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/MRW_QJE1992.pdf
Licença
Copyright the President and Fellows of Harvard College (QJE); cited, not reproduced.
  • #9 figura da resposta próxima: 1,421.42 · published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.0050000014200000005
  • #10 figura da resposta próxima: 0,140.14 · published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004

Verificações

Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
#VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
0resposta com lastro
every number backed
obrigatóriapassou—[]———
1figura da resposta escolhida
answer figure call_1a2b4b6c:coef.ls (infer.ols)
obrigatóriapassou—"call_1a2b4b6c:coef.ls"——call_1a2b4b6c
2ferramenta chamada
answer call is infer.ols
obrigatóriapassou—"infer.ols"——call_1a2b4b6c
3argumento igual
infer.ols.y = 'ly'
obrigatóriapassou"ly""ly"——call_1a2b4b6c
4argumento igual
infer.ols.x[0] = 'ls'
obrigatóriapassou"ls""ls"——call_1a2b4b6c
5argumento igual
infer.ols.y = 'ly'
registradapassou"ly""ly"——call_1a2b4b6c
6diagnóstico
98 vs 98
registradapassou98989898default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6)—call_1a2b4b6c
7figura da resposta próxima
1.424014283 vs 1.4240142833694192
registradapassou1,424011.42401428336941921,424011.424014283369419relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.softwarecall_1a2b4b6c
8figura da resposta próxima
0.1431058165 vs 0.14310581649732004
registradapassou0,1431060.143105816497320040,1431060.14310581649732002relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.4310581649732005e-7mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.softwarecall_1a2b4b6c
9figura da resposta próxima
1.424014283 vs 1.42
registradapassou1,421.421,424011.424014283369419published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.0050000014200000005mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.papercall_1a2b4b6c
10figura da resposta próxima
0.1431058165 vs 0.14
registradapassou0,140.140,1431060.14310581649732002published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.papercall_1a2b4b6c

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

a tarefa T1 do mesmo alvo (paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.tool)

Referência: infer.olsChamada do agente: infer.ols (call_1a2b4b6c)igual
Argumentos da referência e do agente
ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
cluster——não fixado pela referência
controls[][]igual
dataset"growthdj""growthdj"igual
fe[][]igual
intercept—truenão fixado pela referência
level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
se"classical""classical"igual
subset"oil == 'no'""oil == 'no'"igual
weights——não fixado pela referência
x["ls","lngd"]["ls","lngd"]igual
y"ly""ly"igual

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

  1. 0Início

    In the Solow growth model, how does income per working-age person in 1985 vary across the non-oil-producing countries with the share of output that is invested, holding the growth of the working-age population (plus technological progress and depreciation, assumed to total 0.05) fixed? Report the elasticity of income with respect to the investment share.

    growthdj (agent)

    The data of Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992), 'A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth', as transcribed by Durlauf and Johnson (R package AER, GrowthDJ): one row per country (121 rows). Columns: rownames, a row number; oil, 'yes' for the oil producers MRW exclude from the non-oil sample, else 'no'; inter, 'yes' for the 'intermediate' sample (no Summers-Heston grade of D, 1960 population of at least one million); oecd, 'yes' for the OECD sample; gdp60 and gdp85, real GDP per working-age person in 1960 and 1985 (dollars); gdpgrowth, average annual growth of GDP per working-age person 1960-1985 (percent); popgrowth, average annual growth of the working-age population 1960-1985 (percent); invest, average share of real investment in real GDP 1960-1985 (percent); school, percent of the working-age population in secondary school; literacy60, adult literacy rate in 1960 (percent). Columns built from the paper's definitions (g + δ = 0.05): ly, log of gdp85; s_share, invest divided by 100; ls, log of s_share (ln(I/GDP)); n_rate, popgrowth divided by 100; g_plus_delta, the constant 0.05; ngd, n_rate + g_plus_delta; lngd, log of ngd (ln(n + g + δ)). Some countries miss gdp85 or popgrowth.

    file 3d06303f1da9959175e990eb068bf242fac0e9bc1f9daad1f5fffe96d100e796 · frame —
    1. derive {"args":{"column":"gdp85"},"name":"ly","op":"log"}
    2. derive {"args":{"column":"invest","factor":0.01},"name":"s_share","op":"scale"}
    3. derive {"args":{"column":"s_share"},"name":"ls","op":"log"}
    4. derive {"args":{"column":"popgrowth","factor":0.01},"name":"n_rate","op":"scale"}
    5. derive {"args":{"value":0.05},"name":"g_plus_delta","op":"constant"}
    6. derive {"args":{"columns":["n_rate","g_plus_delta"]},"name":"ngd","op":"sum"}
    7. derive {"args":{"column":"ngd"},"name":"lngd","op":"log"}
  2. 1Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"gdp85"},"name":"ly","op":"log"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 6f822eca9c87 → 256189baba87
  3. 2Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"invest","factor":0.01},"name":"s_share","op":"scale"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 256189baba87 → ddc60cb0ca4e
  4. 3Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"s_share"},"name":"ls","op":"log"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: ddc60cb0ca4e → 832bd9c4b876
  5. 4Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"popgrowth","factor":0.01},"name":"n_rate","op":"scale"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 832bd9c4b876 → ff997d0e044f
  6. 5Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"value":0.05},"name":"g_plus_delta","op":"constant"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: ff997d0e044f → b9e3acd5adf8
  7. 6Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"columns":["n_rate","g_plus_delta"]},"name":"ngd","op":"sum"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: b9e3acd5adf8 → 837704298f36
  8. 7Transformação
    growthdj · derive {"args":{"column":"ngd"},"name":"lngd","op":"log"}
    121 → 121 linhas
    Frame antes → depois: 837704298f36 → e3f509733efe
  9. 8Turno do modelo
    call_1ca9337freferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
    Texto visível

    Table I, Non-oil sample: OLS of log GDP per working-age person in 1985 on ln(I/GDP) and ln(n + g + δ) with g + δ = 0.05, classical errors.

    Chamadas pedidas
    • infer.ols
      {
        "controls": [],
        "dataset": "growthdj",
        "fe": [],
        "se": "classical",
        "subset": "oil == 'no'",
        "x": [
          "ls",
          "lngd"
        ],
        "y": "ly"
      }
  10. 9Ferramenta
    infer.olsv0.1.0call_1a2b4b6cdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: Table I, Non-oil sample: OLS of log GDP per working-age person in 1985 on ln(I/GDP) and ln(n + g + δ) with g + δ = 0.05, classical errors.

    Argumentos
    {
      "cluster": null,
      "controls": [],
      "dataset": "growthdj",
      "fe": [],
      "intercept": true,
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "classical",
      "subset": "oil == 'no'",
      "weights": null,
      "x": [
        "ls",
        "lngd"
      ],
      "y": "ly"
    }
    Figuras call_1a2b4b6c
    ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
    coef.ls
    Coefficient on ls in the regression of ly
    1,42401 1.4240142833694190,1431060.143105816497320021,13991 – 1,70812
    coef.lngd
    Coefficient on lngd in the regression of ly
    -1,98977 -1.98977448460618670,5633620.5633618948953983-3,10819 – -0,87136
    Diagnósticos
    • n_obs = 9898
    • k = 33
    • r2 = 0,6008650.6008648011032094
    • df_resid = 9595
    • se_type = "classical"
    • n_clusters = —
    Tabelas (1)
    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": 8.574302070149807,
          "ci_low": 2.2854641214134954,
          "coef": 5.429883095781651,
          "p": 0.0008999523718049453,
          "se": 1.5838898803304133,
          "t": 3.428194827944055,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 1.708115249178197,
          "ci_low": 1.1399133175606408,
          "coef": 1.424014283369419,
          "p": 2.1046445253797267e-16,
          "se": 0.14310581649732002,
          "t": 9.950778509384255,
          "term": "ls"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -0.8713597174283383,
          "ci_low": -3.108189251784035,
          "coef": -1.9897744846061867,
          "p": 0.0006385352057009347,
          "se": 0.5633618948953983,
          "t": -3.531964981365373,
          "term": "lngd"
        }
      ]
    }
    Digests dos dados
    growthdj e3f509733efe06358f9503c526bd45111b6a64feb75b292419aae56055b598f2
    sha256 do resultado
    c610b32762a31ca6dcf00b54c07fc2f3f4853a6316d3ae47d21247dd56b131cc
  11. 10Turno do modelo
    call_f61a2b55referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
    Chamadas pedidas
    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
      {
        "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.ls = 1,424.",
        "caveats": [],
        "figure_refs": [
          "call_1a2b4b6c:coef.ls"
        ]
      }
  12. 11Guarda
    resposta aceita
    Números encontrados
    1,424
    Sem lastro
    —
    Não citados
    —
    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
  13. 12Resposta

    Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.ls = 1,424.

    Figuras citadas: call_1a2b4b6c:coef.ls · Parada: answered
    Figura da resposta: call_1a2b4b6c:coef.ls = 1,424011.424014283369419 (se 0,1431060.14310581649732002)
  14. 13Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
  15. 14Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta escolhidapassouobrigatóriaanswer figure call_1a2b4b6c:coef.ls (infer.ols)
  16. 15Pontuação
    #2ferramenta chamadapassouobrigatóriaanswer call is infer.ols
  17. 16Pontuação
    #3argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.y = 'ly'
  18. 17Pontuação
    #4argumento igualpassouobrigatóriainfer.ols.x[0] = 'ls'
  19. 18Pontuação
    #5argumento igualpassouregistradainfer.ols.y = 'ly'
  20. 19Pontuação
    #6diagnósticopassouregistrada98 vs 98
  21. 20Pontuação
    #7figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada1.424014283 vs 1.4240142833694192
  22. 21Pontuação
    #8figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.1431058165 vs 0.14310581649732004
  23. 22Pontuação
    #9figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada1.424014283 vs 1.42
  24. 23Pontuação
    #10figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.1431058165 vs 0.14

Épocas × verificações

Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
#012345678910
Época 1passoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassoupassou

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

Downloads desta tarefa

Pacote da tarefa (.zip)
87,9 KB · sha256 00a8770d2dad6c4130caf1fdf4267ef309e9dbe3f9594291262094ceed8837b2

O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.

Downloads desta tarefa
ArquivoTamanhosha256
attachments/3f9aeffcf84c0ee0bb2d43349bf27358cfae4b99d5d67a06d7ccae23e1f8f32a.json1,1 KB3f9aeffcf84c0ee0bb2d43349bf27358cfae4b99d5d67a06d7ccae23e1f8f32a
attachments/433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420.json2,4 KB433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420
attachments/48ffdfde77bfa526203c8f987d3f26eddffff0babb739cfee60df0c362934c01.json381 B48ffdfde77bfa526203c8f987d3f26eddffff0babb739cfee60df0c362934c01
attachments/52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b.json64,0 KB52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b
attachments/52d10917afe415ee53adaf19c0eb50a235f8be1703b38e37539baf96cfdc00cd.json1,8 KB52d10917afe415ee53adaf19c0eb50a235f8be1703b38e37539baf96cfdc00cd
attachments/ea877c5f8a84774db2ccefa1144afea7ec6a1bfd0982fc1c881a5b5cb7400a1f.json1,2 KBea877c5f8a84774db2ccefa1144afea7ec6a1bfd0982fc1c881a5b5cb7400a1f
attachments/f2cba0cd51241889ebf1c61fe7db8993ee58f0689de3096f7cd0da2181b708e7.json350 Bf2cba0cd51241889ebf1c61fe7db8993ee58f0689de3096f7cd0da2181b708e7
sources/mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.paper.json2,1 KB7c575b0eaa19335ba88dc8ca7db2409eede847910b61a4863329bffbc805c3ae
sources/mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.software.json1,2 KB4cd73ffe910fce984c965e80eef199e6134d2324866b41073c323e379711e4ca
specs/paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design.json9,6 KB91b9b9fe214f1ed8c4672aaf4d987a71acf8cff6e70e8cbcd0ab112b11f29fb0
traces/paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design.e1.a1.jsonl20,9 KB70be4bf9bcb75ff9e806edbcbef9afe616ebd7215ab826ac2d29cd179f586da2
trajectories/paper_repro.mrw_1992.tab1_nonoil_ls.design.e1.a1.jsonl20,8 KBdd67022be37f0ee59c1cba7c70dd633161b8de266683d8fc35dd76fdc30ffaeb