Tarefa paper_repro.stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.design
paper_reproagentT3designépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T165911Z-suite-paper_repro-baseline-8b4f85Veredito
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator callPergunta feita ao analista
Do higher beer taxes reduce traffic deaths? Using the panel of 48 U.S. states over 1982-1988, estimate the effect of the real beer tax on the traffic fatality rate (deaths per 10,000 residents), controlling for the states' unobserved characteristics that do not change over time and for nationwide changes that affect all states alike.
Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.
Valores esperados e de onde vêm
stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.software
- Fonte
- statsmodels 0.15.0: the reference specification of stock_watson_fatalities tab10_1_c3 (infer.ols, figure 'coef.beertax') on an independent code path
- Tipo
- software
- Localização
- stock_watson_fatalities: Table 10.1, column (3) (state and time effects, clustered standard errors), row 'Beer tax'
- Valor
- -0,63998
-0.6399799857068721(se 0,3857870.385786721792343) - Conferido por
- execução de software · sm.OLS(frate, add_constant(['beertax']), fe dummies ['state', 'year']; 55 independent columns).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=state) on fatalities (the file pinned at sha256 ae265c1b14b4a023179b3af5db33b6a659ccf804987f26e8349826d4083ee149, after its 2 declared transforms); n_obs = 336. The tool infer.ols (magi_infer, numpy) does not call statsmodels. Written by scripts/paper_repro_reference.py.
- Implementação
- independente da ferramenta
- Endereço
https://pypi.org/project/statsmodels/0.15.0/
- #11 figura da resposta próxima: -0,63998
-0.6399799857068721· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.8578672179234303e-7 - #12 figura da resposta próxima: 0,385787
0.385786721792343· relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.8578672179234303e-7
stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.paper
- Fonte
- Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (2015). Introduction to Econometrics, 3rd edition (update) or later; the edition of the reproduced table is not confirmed. Boston: Pearson.
- Tipo
- textbook
- Localização
- Table 10.1, column (3) (state and time effects, clustered standard errors), row 'Beer tax'
- Página
- slide 66 of the NTU reproduction (book page not read)
- Trecho
Table 10.1, Beer tax, column (3): −0.64 (0.36)
- Valor como publicado
−0.64- Erro-padrão como publicado
0.36- Valor
- -0,64
-0.64(se 0,360.36) deaths per 10,000 residents per dollar of real beer tax per case - Conferido por
- fonte secundária · The book itself was not read (not public). Secondary reproduction read on 2026-10-15: Ming-Ching Luoh's course slides 'Regression with Panel Data' (National Taiwan University, 2022; panel.pdf, sha256 72404054...), slide 66, an image of the book's Table 10.1 'Regression Analysis of the Effect of Drunk Driving Laws on Traffic Deaths' (dependent variable: traffic fatality rate, deaths per 10,000), read from the page rendered at 220 dpi. The table's layout (95% intervals in brackets, a 'Clustered standard errors?' row) suggests the 3rd edition; neither slide names an edition. The same deck's slide 35 prints an equation with a non-clustered standard error, -.66 (.20), edition not stated; the cells here are the table's clustered ones.
- sha256 da cópia lida
724040543bc392d0119d830d39ae5aabbbb08e847c66f33e9bfe56c64734b344(identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)- Desvio conhecido
- convenção de erro-padrãoRecorded before this track's software-reference run and before any dry run on this target; from the stated conventions. Table 10.1 reports errors clustered by state with the convention of Stata's xtreg/areg-style panel output, where the absorbed state effects (nested in the clusters) are not counted in K; infer.ols, by its card, puts fixed effects in as dummies and applies the CR1 correction G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) with the dummies counted in K, so its clustered SE is larger by about sqrt((N-1)/(N-K)). The research probe of 2026-10-14 (research-papers.md sections 2.4 and 3.21) found 0.3148 against the printed 0.29 for column (2). The printed SE (and, for safety, the printed cell) is therefore a se_convention deviation: recorded, counted in replication fidelity, non-required on T1.
- Endereço
https://homepage.ntu.edu.tw/~luohm/metrics2022s/panel.pdf- Licença
- Copyright Pearson Education; cited, not reproduced.
- #13 figura da resposta próxima: -0,64
-0.64· published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004 - #14 figura da resposta próxima: 0,36
0.36· published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004
Verificações
| # | Verificação | Obrigatória | Resultado | Esperado | Observado | Tolerância | Fonte | Chamada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | resposta com lastro every number backed | obrigatória | passou | — | [] | — | — | — |
| 1 | figura da resposta escolhida no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | uma entre tool_called(infer.ols): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | tool_called(infer.fe): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | [{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"answer_call","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"tool_called","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.ols","value":null,"weight":1,"where":null},{"abs_tol":null,"bind":"answer_call","column":null,"failure_class":null,"field":"value","interval":false,"key":null,"kind":"tool_called","min_lre":null,"note":"","open_interval":false,"rel_tol":null,"required":true,"source_id":null,"table":null,"tool":"infer.fe","value":null,"weight":1,"where":null}] | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | argumento igual no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "frate" | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | argumento igual no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "beertax" | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | argumento igual no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "frate" | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | argumento igual no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | obrigatória | falhou | "beertax" | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | argumento igual no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | "frate" | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | argumento igual no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | ["state","year"] | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | argumento igual no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | "state" | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | diagnóstico no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | 336336 | — | default rel 1e-6 (abs floor 1e-6) | — | — |
| 11 | figura da resposta próxima no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | -0,63998-0.6399799857068721 | — | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.8578672179234303e-7 | stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.software | — |
| 12 | figura da resposta próxima no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | 0,3857870.385786721792343 | — | relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 3.8578672179234303e-7 | stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.software | — |
| 13 | figura da resposta próxima no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | -0,64-0.64 | — | published_cell d=2 · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004 | stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.paper | — |
| 14 | figura da resposta próxima no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | registrada | falhou | 0,360.36 | — | published_cell d=2 (the SE as printed) · absoluta 0.0050000010000000004 | stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.paper | — |
Caminho de referência e caminho do agente
A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.
a tarefa T1 do mesmo alvo (paper_repro.stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.tool)
Trajetória
Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.
- 0Início
Do higher beer taxes reduce traffic deaths? Using the panel of 48 U.S. states over 1982-1988, estimate the effect of the real beer tax on the traffic fatality rate (deaths per 10,000 residents), controlling for the states' unobserved characteristics that do not change over time and for nationwide changes that affect all states alike.
fatalities(agent)Stock and Watson's traffic fatalities panel (R package AER, Fatalities; Ruhm 1996): one row per U.S. state (the 48 contiguous states) and year, 1982-1988 (336 rows). Columns: rownames, a row number; state, two-letter state code; year; spirits, spirits consumption; unemp, unemployment rate; income, per capita personal income (1987 dollars); emppop, employment to population ratio; beertax, tax on a case of beer (1988 dollars); baptist and mormon, percent of residents Southern Baptist and Mormon; drinkage, minimum legal drinking age; dry, percent of residents in dry counties; youngdrivers, percent of drivers aged 15-24; miles, average miles per driver; breath, jail, service, 'yes' for a preliminary breath test law, mandatory jail sentence and mandatory community service; fatal, number of vehicle fatalities; nfatal and sfatal, night-time and single-vehicle fatalities; fatal1517, fatal1820, fatal2124 and their night-time counterparts, fatalities by age group; afatal, alcohol-involved fatalities; pop, population; pop1517, pop1820, pop2124, population by age group; milestot, total vehicle miles (millions); unempus and emppopus, national unemployment rate and employment ratio; gsp, growth of gross state product. Columns built from the book's definition: fatal_per_pop, fatal divided by pop; frate, the traffic fatality rate, deaths per 10,000 residents (fatal_per_pop times 10,000).
fileae265c1b14b4a023179b3af5db33b6a659ccf804987f26e8349826d4083ee149· frame —derive{"args":{"left":"fatal","right":"pop"},"name":"fatal_per_pop","op":"ratio"}derive{"args":{"column":"fatal_per_pop","factor":10000},"name":"frate","op":"scale"}
- 1Transformação
fatalities·derive{"args":{"left":"fatal","right":"pop"},"name":"fatal_per_pop","op":"ratio"}336 → 336 linhasFrame antes → depois:63bcb8c60f68→4658e9b711d9 - 2Transformação
fatalities·derive{"args":{"column":"fatal_per_pop","factor":10000},"name":"frate","op":"scale"}336 → 336 linhasFrame antes → depois:4658e9b711d9→fbec03347d8a - 3Turno do modelo
call_601b8645rules-1Fim:tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cacheChamadas pedidassubmit_answer(meta-ferramenta){ "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.", "caveats": [], "figure_refs": [] }
- 4Guardaresposta aceita
- Números encontrados
- —
- Sem lastro
- —
- Não citados
- —
1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s) - 5Resposta
Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.
Figuras citadas:—· Parada:answered - 6Pontuação#0resposta com lastropassouobrigatória
every number backed - 7Pontuação#1figura da resposta escolhidafalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 8Pontuação#2uma entrefalhouobrigatória
tool_called(infer.ols): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call | tool_called(infer.fe): no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 9Pontuação#3argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 10Pontuação#4argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 11Pontuação#5argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 12Pontuação#6argumento igualfalhouobrigatória
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 13Pontuação#7argumento igualfalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 14Pontuação#8argumento igualfalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 15Pontuação#9argumento igualfalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 16Pontuação#10diagnósticofalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 17Pontuação#11figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 18Pontuação#12figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 19Pontuação#13figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call - 20Pontuação#14figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
Épocas × verificações
| # | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Época 1 | passou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou | falhou |
Tentativas
Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.
- época 1, tentativa 1falhoupontuada(exibindo)
Downloads desta tarefa
1ab07055e46e3925fb7cb39541c1d1ee29841ee18c3b117360614b7f4f7cda62O hash de um zip é só de transporte: o que ancora a integridade é o RUN_SHA256SUMS que vai dentro dele, cópia exata do SHA256SUMS da execução.
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|---|---|---|
| attachments/3b9a7929ab5d3708af7b6879dfa15c21afd451c24fc635792ed40ba3dcfaef1f.json | 360 B | 3b9a7929ab5d3708af7b6879dfa15c21afd451c24fc635792ed40ba3dcfaef1f |
| attachments/433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420.json | 2,4 KB | 433a6877aa6a378bbd4b7e2752e484d8cb7499c562d68222be231f62ff2fa420 |
| attachments/52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b.json | 64,0 KB | 52ab03d8ec104abb85572294bf8a469d75c5de9e74d6042caabff8017adc572b |
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| sources/stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.paper.json | 2,7 KB | 080f9a21d9981a53558354f96db21560139a845cb8b077153a80d8e817e1efbf |
| sources/stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.software.json | 1,3 KB | 99ac56f4b54ef9354cf4fef38bd617478a9091dc9f0a625a97f79234d56b5102 |
| specs/paper_repro.stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.design.json | 12,4 KB | a9b73d3b111f4654d93568b70cbb43868009c9260fae30639b46118a3993c7a1 |
| traces/paper_repro.stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.design.e1.a1.jsonl | 10,3 KB | 4ebbba32c451f29cd3f64b2967ff319b6ba5779645511b913d68540f5701845b |
| trajectories/paper_repro.stock_watson_fatalities.tab10_1_c3.design.e1.a1.jsonl | 14,3 KB | c39e922bdb5e7d4c98cb59bc0b813f16555d4c46b5b960d30bfa5af1384f5dfc |