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Tarefa qrdata_socsci.362

qrdata_socsciagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170010Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-scripted-7912b3

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): iv (two-stage least squares)

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the average additional percentage wage increase associated with each additional year of education based on the instrumental variable of whether the individual is born in the last quarter q4? Please adjust for all the other variables, and round your answer to the nearest hundredth of a percent.

Resposta

Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.years_of_schooling = 0,08530. Caminho de referência inferido à mão.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

qrdata.gold.362

Fonte
QRData benchmark/QRData.json at de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed (Xiao Liu, Zirui Wu, Xueqing Wu, Pan Lu, Kai-Wei Chang, Yansong Feng. Are LLMs Capable of Data-based Statistical and Causal Reasoning? Benchmarking Advanced Quantitative Reasoning with Data. Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2024, pages 9215-9235.)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
QRData.json item 362 (0-based), field 'answer'
Trecho
item 362 answer 8.53%
Valor como publicado
8.53%
Valor
0,08530.08529999999999999 fraction (eval.py divides a '%' gold by 100)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark
sha256 da cópia lida
e076d960f19434adf728aab70480ce34808c06066fcea48eaa38b145d1a111a1 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xxxiaol/QRData/de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed/benchmark/QRData.json
Licença
CC BY-NC 4.0
  • #1 figura da resposta próxima: [0.08274099999999998,0.08785899999999999] · interval · [0.08274099999999998, 0.08785899999999999] ()

qrdata.eval_py

Fonte
QRData benchmark/eval.py at de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed (Xiao Liu, Zirui Wu, Xueqing Wu, Pan Lu, Kai-Wei Chang, Yansong Feng. Are LLMs Capable of Data-based Statistical and Causal Reasoning? Benchmarking Advanced Quantitative Reasoning with Data. Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2024, pages 9215-9235.)
Tipo
software
Localização
benchmark/eval.py: extract_first_number, calc_acc
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Vendored byte for byte as suites/data/qrdata_socsci/vendor/benchmark_eval.py.txt; a parity test runs its functions against MAGI's port and the answer_figure_close check.
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
d6e5c1f7535ac9413951996c15544beb6f184244acb2da56e1fcd0942837e33d (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xxxiaol/QRData/de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed/benchmark/eval.py
Licença
CC BY-NC 4.0

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    0.0853 in (0.082741, 0.087859)?
    obrigatóriapassou[0.08274099999999998,0.08785899999999999]0,08530.0853interval · [0.08274099999999998, 0.08785899999999999] ()qrdata.gold.362call_f3d49934

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · hand_inferred

    Referência: infer.iv_2slsChamada do agente: infer.iv_2sls (call_f3d49934)igual
    Argumentos da referência e do agente
    ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
    cluster——não fixado pela referência
    dataset"ak91_iv""ak91_iv"igual
    endog["years_of_schooling"]["years_of_schooling"]igual
    exog["yob_31","yob_32","yob_33","yob_34","yob_35","yob_36","yob_37","yob_38","yob_39","sob_2","sob_4","sob_5","sob_6","sob_8","sob_9","sob_10","sob_11","sob_12","sob_13","sob_15","sob_16","sob_17","sob_18","sob_19","sob_20","sob_21","sob_22","sob_23","sob_24","sob_25","sob_26","sob_27","sob_28","sob_29","sob_30","sob_31","sob_32","sob_33","sob_34","sob_35","sob_36","sob_37","sob_38","sob_39","sob_40","sob_41","sob_42","sob_44","sob_45","sob_46","sob_47","sob_48","sob_49","sob_50","sob_51","sob_53","sob_54","sob_55","sob_56"]["yob_31","yob_32","yob_33","yob_34","yob_35","yob_36","yob_37","yob_38","yob_39","sob_2","sob_4","sob_5","sob_6","sob_8","sob_9","sob_10","sob_11","sob_12","sob_13","sob_15","sob_16","sob_17","sob_18","sob_19","sob_20","sob_21","sob_22","sob_23","sob_24","sob_25","sob_26","sob_27","sob_28","sob_29","sob_30","sob_31","sob_32","sob_33","sob_34","sob_35","sob_36","sob_37","sob_38","sob_39","sob_40","sob_41","sob_42","sob_44","sob_45","sob_46","sob_47","sob_48","sob_49","sob_50","sob_51","sob_53","sob_54","sob_55","sob_56"]igual
    instruments["q4"]["q4"]igual
    level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
    se—"HC1"não fixado pela referência
    subset——não fixado pela referência
    y"log_wage""log_wage"igual

    Pendências do caminho de referência: needs_spec:control_coding

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      What is the average additional percentage wage increase associated with each additional year of education based on the instrumental variable of whether the individual is born in the last quarter q4? Please adjust for all the other variables, and round your answer to the nearest hundredth of a percent.

      ak91 (agent)

      The dataset provided, ak91.csv, contains information on individuals' log wages, years of schooling, year of birth, quarter of birth, and state of birth. The purpose of the analysis is to estimate the effect of education on wage, using linear regression and quarter of birth as an instrumental variable (IV). This idea takes advantage of US compulsory attendance law. Usually, they state that a kid must have turned 6 years by January 1 of the year they enter school. For this reason, kids that are born at the beginning of the year will enter school at an older age. Compulsory attendance law also requires students to be in school until they turn 16, at which point they are legally allowed to drop out. The result is that people born later in the year have, on average, more years of education than those born in the beginning of the year.

      file 3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970 · frame —
      ak91_iv (reference)
      file 3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970 · frame —
      1. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"quarter_of_birth","value":4},"name":"q4","op":"indicator"}
      2. cast {"columns":["year_of_birth","state_of_birth"],"to":"int"}
      3. dummies {"column":"year_of_birth","drop_first":true,"prefix":"yob"}
      4. dummies {"column":"state_of_birth","drop_first":true,"prefix":"sob"}
    2. 1Transformação
      ak91_iv · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"quarter_of_birth","value":4},"name":"q4","op":"indicator"}
      329509 → 329509 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: af6529c7b49b → ce8d66b6716e
    3. 2Transformação
      ak91_iv · cast {"columns":["year_of_birth","state_of_birth"],"to":"int"}
      329509 → 329509 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: ce8d66b6716e → ec1c6797fcab
    4. 3Transformação
      ak91_iv · dummies {"column":"year_of_birth","drop_first":true,"prefix":"yob"}
      329509 → 329509 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: ec1c6797fcab → c138d8254047
    5. 4Transformação
      ak91_iv · dummies {"column":"state_of_birth","drop_first":true,"prefix":"sob"}
      329509 → 329509 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: c138d8254047 → bde6e4a59971
    6. 5Turno do modelo
      call_9fe06b70referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Texto visível

      2SLS of log wage on years of schooling instrumented by the fourth-quarter indicator, with year-of-birth and state-of-birth dummies as exogenous controls (Brave and True, ch. 8).

      Chamadas pedidas
      • infer.iv_2sls
        {
          "dataset": "ak91_iv",
          "endog": [
            "years_of_schooling"
          ],
          "exog": [
            "yob_31",
            "yob_32",
            "yob_33",
            "yob_34",
            "yob_35",
            "yob_36",
            "yob_37",
            "yob_38",
            "yob_39",
            "sob_2",
            "sob_4",
            "sob_5",
            "sob_6",
            "sob_8",
            "sob_9",
            "sob_10",
            "sob_11",
            "sob_12",
            "sob_13",
            "sob_15",
            "sob_16",
            "sob_17",
            "sob_18",
            "sob_19",
            "sob_20",
            "sob_21",
            "sob_22",
            "sob_23",
            "sob_24",
            "sob_25",
            "sob_26",
            "sob_27",
            "sob_28",
            "sob_29",
            "sob_30",
            "sob_31",
            "sob_32",
            "sob_33",
            "sob_34",
            "sob_35",
            "sob_36",
            "sob_37",
            "sob_38",
            "sob_39",
            "sob_40",
            "sob_41",
            "sob_42",
            "sob_44",
            "sob_45",
            "sob_46",
            "sob_47",
            "sob_48",
            "sob_49",
            "sob_50",
            "sob_51",
            "sob_53",
            "sob_54",
            "sob_55",
            "sob_56"
          ],
          "instruments": [
            "q4"
          ],
          "y": "log_wage"
        }
    7. 6Ferramenta
      infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_f3d49934decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

      Motivo: 2SLS of log wage on years of schooling instrumented by the fourth-quarter indicator, with year-of-birth and state-of-birth dummies as exogenous controls (Brave and True, ch. 8).

      Argumentos
      {
        "cluster": null,
        "dataset": "ak91_iv",
        "endog": [
          "years_of_schooling"
        ],
        "exog": [
          "yob_31",
          "yob_32",
          "yob_33",
          "yob_34",
          "yob_35",
          "yob_36",
          "yob_37",
          "yob_38",
          "yob_39",
          "sob_2",
          "sob_4",
          "sob_5",
          "sob_6",
          "sob_8",
          "sob_9",
          "sob_10",
          "sob_11",
          "sob_12",
          "sob_13",
          "sob_15",
          "sob_16",
          "sob_17",
          "sob_18",
          "sob_19",
          "sob_20",
          "sob_21",
          "sob_22",
          "sob_23",
          "sob_24",
          "sob_25",
          "sob_26",
          "sob_27",
          "sob_28",
          "sob_29",
          "sob_30",
          "sob_31",
          "sob_32",
          "sob_33",
          "sob_34",
          "sob_35",
          "sob_36",
          "sob_37",
          "sob_38",
          "sob_39",
          "sob_40",
          "sob_41",
          "sob_42",
          "sob_44",
          "sob_45",
          "sob_46",
          "sob_47",
          "sob_48",
          "sob_49",
          "sob_50",
          "sob_51",
          "sob_53",
          "sob_54",
          "sob_55",
          "sob_56"
        ],
        "instruments": [
          "q4"
        ],
        "level": 0.95,
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": null,
        "y": "log_wage"
      }
      Figuras call_f3d49934
      ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
      coef.years_of_schooling
      2SLS effect of years_of_schooling on log_wage
      0,0853029 0.085302864920888140,02554320.0255431772504459840,035239 – 0,135367
      Diagnósticos
      • first_stage_F.years_of_schooling = 61,782761.782739389417884
      • partial_r2.years_of_schooling = 0,0001854010.0001854009158526182
      • weak_instrument = false
      • n_obs = 329.509329509
      • se_type = "HC1"
      • n_clusters = —
      Tabelas (3)
      {
        "coefficients": [
          {
            "ci_high": 5.315898594278442,
            "ci_low": 4.177629399485408,
            "coef": 4.746763996881925,
            "p": 4.8426057751719305e-60,
            "se": 0.2903790635605813,
            "t": 16.346784574197155,
            "term": "Intercept"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.004546659725242786,
            "ci_low": -0.02014899153819063,
            "coef": -0.007801165906473921,
            "p": 0.21561329348538055,
            "se": 0.006300003655285049,
            "t": -1.23827958416017,
            "term": "yob_31"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.00007111629874588521,
            "ci_low": -0.028843419723120947,
            "coef": -0.014457268010933416,
            "p": 0.048878177544792435,
            "se": 0.00733998123033635,
            "t": -1.9696600791267858,
            "term": "yob_32"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.0006554671077250267,
            "ci_low": -0.03420526536578866,
            "coef": -0.017430366236756846,
            "p": 0.04169538906337667,
            "se": 0.008558747829940452,
            "t": -2.03655564845379,
            "term": "yob_33"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.0032123076698963512,
            "ci_low": -0.040138154008912304,
            "coef": -0.021675230839404327,
            "p": 0.021393349404883858,
            "se": 0.009419997246833157,
            "t": -2.3009805917609127,
            "term": "yob_34"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.013208526332850221,
            "ci_low": -0.05558344589758296,
            "coef": -0.03439598611521659,
            "p": 0.0014635538543801196,
            "se": 0.010810087383502785,
            "t": -3.18184163503693,
            "term": "yob_35"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.011492833704452372,
            "ci_low": -0.05790677251915096,
            "coef": -0.034699803111801666,
            "p": 0.003383186524140447,
            "se": 0.011840464585023643,
            "t": -2.930611621075372,
            "term": "yob_36"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.015057087621178026,
            "ci_low": -0.06695350349298683,
            "coef": -0.041005295557082426,
            "p": 0.0019531327157528405,
            "se": 0.013239076232530716,
            "t": -3.097292804789905,
            "term": "yob_37"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.013526637959811495,
            "ci_low": -0.07298402002575227,
            "coef": -0.04325532899278189,
            "p": 0.004348012660808795,
            "se": 0.015167922495882738,
            "t": -2.851763582291731,
            "term": "yob_38"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.02306414396027861,
            "ci_low": -0.0863568546250717,
            "coef": -0.05471049929267516,
            "p": 0.0007030590215531625,
            "se": 0.01614633703268688,
            "t": -3.3884155385780947,
            "term": "yob_39"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.4350471566111351,
            "ci_low": 0.019412980307373706,
            "coef": 0.2272300684592544,
            "p": 0.0321090505800597,
            "se": 0.10603068540461077,
            "t": 2.1430595076524255,
            "term": "sob_2"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.20073654074533173,
            "ci_low": 0.04234602780287669,
            "coef": 0.12154128427410421,
            "p": 0.0026301392708818145,
            "se": 0.040406337126142625,
            "t": 3.0079758007925896,
            "term": "sob_4"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.06709778182181278,
            "ci_low": 0.01901351499182987,
            "coef": 0.04305564840682132,
            "p": 0.0004481705560768453,
            "se": 0.012266574934961957,
            "t": 3.509997585724189,
            "term": "sob_5"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.24425702285876905,
            "ci_low": 0.025980069275713558,
            "coef": 0.1351185460672413,
            "p": 0.01524426533679295,
            "se": 0.055683714949194225,
            "t": 2.426536128031748,
            "term": "sob_6"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.17737469267428033,
            "ci_low": 0.006711367140046998,
            "coef": 0.09204302990716366,
            "p": 0.03450545690277291,
            "se": 0.04353720269287974,
            "t": 2.1141236509027435,
            "term": "sob_8"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.18914047920798355,
            "ci_low": 0.02104915164429433,
            "coef": 0.10509481542613894,
            "p": 0.01425268695221718,
            "se": 0.04288107111558434,
            "t": 2.4508439899474466,
            "term": "sob_9"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.13457270712245234,
            "ci_low": 0.024685823609266064,
            "coef": 0.07962926536585921,
            "p": 0.004503478932639642,
            "se": 0.028032780363481204,
            "t": 2.8405767937879487,
            "term": "sob_10"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.22823145204405088,
            "ci_low": 0.004092985779976757,
            "coef": 0.11616221891201382,
            "p": 0.04219971614168689,
            "se": 0.057179020779439545,
            "t": 2.031553134848078,
            "term": "sob_11"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.038753516381874756,
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            "coef": -0.015697185700122396,
            "p": 0.5720568483581701,
            "se": 0.027781378874373267,
            "t": -0.5650254356021959,
            "term": "sob_12"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.007870306978340114,
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            "coef": -0.015510076025267185,
            "p": 0.19353146274559033,
            "se": 0.011928942210387523,
            "t": -1.3002054793895532,
            "term": "sob_13"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.23821339576217443,
            "ci_low": 0.01296004758154938,
            "coef": 0.1255867216718619,
            "p": 0.028852413687147416,
            "se": 0.05746343361287966,
            "t": 2.185506743608745,
            "term": "sob_15"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.16929456938807064,
            "ci_low": -0.025610838497139396,
            "coef": 0.07184186544546561,
            "p": 0.1484910375040201,
            "se": 0.0497214982918791,
            "t": 1.4448853697797635,
            "term": "sob_16"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.26027785939632087,
            "ci_low": 0.09212554756144514,
            "coef": 0.176201703478883,
            "p": 0.00003999077977006447,
            "se": 0.042896628556337434,
            "t": 4.107588624301139,
            "term": "sob_17"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.19057917478541006,
            "ci_low": 0.07754151451722599,
            "coef": 0.13406034465131803,
            "p": 0.0000033372383855349286,
            "se": 0.02883656176052679,
            "t": 4.64897118334086,
            "term": "sob_18"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.1482854106743441,
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            "coef": 0.07347298451797987,
            "p": 0.05424524980075849,
            "se": 0.038170166335618254,
            "t": 1.9248798622451644,
            "term": "sob_19"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.13263023202135077,
            "ci_low": -0.048645007008910786,
            "coef": 0.04199261250621999,
            "p": 0.36384768944074514,
            "se": 0.04624436328165669,
            "t": 0.9080590482013794,
            "term": "sob_20"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.14948536087636177,
            "ci_low": 0.08934346193028057,
            "coef": 0.11941441140332117,
            "p": 7.090532123190034e-15,
            "se": 0.015342546716195336,
            "t": 7.783219670908306,
            "term": "sob_21"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.11763954260275168,
            "ci_low": 0.05893388120744315,
            "coef": 0.08828671190509742,
            "p": 3.7469839052596315e-9,
            "se": 0.014976154199423643,
            "t": 5.895152435629645,
            "term": "sob_22"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.019334584550068777,
            "ci_low": -0.06657883177953572,
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            "term": "years_of_schooling"
          }
        ],
        "first_stage": [
          {
            "ci_high": 0.12600744808677325,
            "ci_low": 0.07570873736896201,
            "coef": 0.10085809272786762,
            "endog": "years_of_schooling",
            "instrument": "q4",
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        "reduced_form": [
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        ]
      }
      Digests dos dados
      ak91_iv bde6e4a5997113d378703b104e7cbce2209be4aa4c18126fa1755f5365803fef
      sha256 do resultado
      85a1b8917183d194477e9a8e5e09283c6a0ad7ef5bff25d86d24439278596e92
    8. 7Turno do modelo
      call_22971485referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.years_of_schooling = 0,08530. Caminho de referência inferido à mão.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": [
            "call_f3d49934:coef.years_of_schooling"
          ]
        }
    9. 8Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      0,08530
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    10. 9Resposta

      Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.years_of_schooling = 0,08530. Caminho de referência inferido à mão.

      Figuras citadas: call_f3d49934:coef.years_of_schooling · Parada: answered
      Figura da resposta: call_f3d49934:coef.years_of_schooling = 0,08530290.08530286492088814 (se 0,02554320.025543177250445984)
    11. 10Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    12. 11Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.0853 in (0.082741, 0.087859)?

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