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Tarefa qrdata_socsci.367

qrdata_socsciagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170037Z-suite-qrdata_socsci-naive-761cb5

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, fora da tolerância.
0.47 in (0.3783, 0.4017)?

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): ols (regression)

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the average treatment effect of the growth mindset on the achievement score? Please conduct doubly robust estimation, use logistic regression to estimate the propensity score, and round the final answer to the nearest hundredth.

Resposta

Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.intervention = 0,4723.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

qrdata.gold.367

Fonte
QRData benchmark/QRData.json at de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed (Xiao Liu, Zirui Wu, Xueqing Wu, Pan Lu, Kai-Wei Chang, Yansong Feng. Are LLMs Capable of Data-based Statistical and Causal Reasoning? Benchmarking Advanced Quantitative Reasoning with Data. Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2024, pages 9215-9235.)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
QRData.json item 367 (0-based), field 'answer'
Trecho
item 367 answer 0.39
Valor
0,390.39
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · The printed gold is in the excerpt and index.json. It has fewer than 3 significant digits, so it is not set as value_as_published: the isolation gate searches that field verbatim, and a string this short can occur anywhere in a prompt (the gate does not search such numbers either).
sha256 da cópia lida
e076d960f19434adf728aab70480ce34808c06066fcea48eaa38b145d1a111a1 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xxxiaol/QRData/de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed/benchmark/QRData.json
Licença
CC BY-NC 4.0
  • #1 figura da resposta próxima: [0.3783,0.4017] · interval · [0.3783, 0.4017] ()

qrdata.eval_py

Fonte
QRData benchmark/eval.py at de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed (Xiao Liu, Zirui Wu, Xueqing Wu, Pan Lu, Kai-Wei Chang, Yansong Feng. Are LLMs Capable of Data-based Statistical and Causal Reasoning? Benchmarking Advanced Quantitative Reasoning with Data. Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2024, pages 9215-9235.)
Tipo
software
Localização
benchmark/eval.py: extract_first_number, calc_acc
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Vendored byte for byte as suites/data/qrdata_socsci/vendor/benchmark_eval.py.txt; a parity test runs its functions against MAGI's port and the answer_figure_close check.
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
d6e5c1f7535ac9413951996c15544beb6f184244acb2da56e1fcd0942837e33d (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/xxxiaol/QRData/de450af45ff7101b328bb064c6b475f73414a7ed/benchmark/eval.py
Licença
CC BY-NC 4.0

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    0.47 in (0.3783, 0.4017)?
    obrigatóriafalhou[0.3783,0.4017]0,470.47interval · [0.3783, 0.4017] ()qrdata.gold.367call_5663911a

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

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    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      What is the average treatment effect of the growth mindset on the achievement score? Please conduct doubly robust estimation, use logistic regression to estimate the propensity score, and round the final answer to the nearest hundredth.

      learning_mindset (agent)

      The National Study of Learning Mindsets is a randomised study conducted in U.S. public high schools which aims at finding the impact of a growth mindset. The way it works is that students receive from the school a seminar to instill in them a growth mindset. Then, they follow up the students in their college years to measure how well they’ve performed academically. This measurement was compiled into an achievement score and standardized. The CSV file learning_mindset.csv contains simulated data of this research. Variable Description intervention: the intervention of the growth mindset; achievement_score: the standardized academic achievement score; schoolid: identifier of the student’s school; success_expect: self-reported expectations for success in the future, a proxy for prior achievement, measured prior to random assignment; ethnicity: categorical variable for student race/ethnicity; gender: categorical variable for student identified gender; frst_in_family: categorical variable for student first-generation status, i.e. first in family to go to college; school_urbanicity: school-level categorical variable for urbanicity of the school, i.e. rural, suburban, etc; school_mindset: school-level mean of students’ fixed mindsets, reported prior to random assignment, standardized; school_achievement: school achievement level, as measured by test scores and college preparation for the previous 4 cohorts of students, standardized; school_ethnic_minority: school racial/ethnic minority composition, i.e., percentage of student body that is Black, Latino, or Native American, standardized; school_poverty: school poverty concentration, i.e., percentage of students who are from families whose incomes fall below the federal poverty line, standardized; school_size: total number of students in all four grade levels in the school, standardized.

      file 3c3a97cca6fdd96f6856f7856b5f8bc786a31d1a9be78c9f610ef3070783e970 · frame —
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_1fef15bcnaive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Texto visível

      Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

      Chamadas pedidas
      • infer.ols
        {
          "dataset": "learning_mindset",
          "x": [
            "intervention"
          ],
          "y": "achievement_score"
        }
    3. 2Ferramenta
      infer.olsv0.1.0call_5663911adecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

      Motivo: Linha de base ingênua: regressão do resultado no tratamento, sem controles.

      Argumentos
      {
        "cluster": null,
        "controls": [],
        "dataset": "learning_mindset",
        "fe": [],
        "intercept": true,
        "level": 0.95,
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": null,
        "weights": null,
        "x": [
          "intervention"
        ],
        "y": "achievement_score"
      }
      Figuras call_5663911a
      ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
      coef.intervention
      Coefficient on intervention in the regression of achievement_score
      0,472272 0.47227166925168710,02055920.020559230638418760,431972 – 0,512572
      Diagnósticos
      • n_obs = 10.39110391
      • k = 22
      • r2 = 0,04898620.048986156661475544
      • df_resid = 10.38910389
      • se_type = "HC1"
      • n_clusters = —
      Tabelas (1)
      {
        "coefficients": [
          {
            "ci_high": -0.13111673618268382,
            "ci_low": -0.17648933228959196,
            "coef": -0.1538030342361379,
            "p": 5.661742907442074e-40,
            "se": 0.011573506035316159,
            "t": -13.289234374338527,
            "term": "Intercept"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.5125717159782045,
            "ci_low": 0.4319716225251697,
            "coef": 0.4722716692516871,
            "p": 6.048287498696275e-114,
            "se": 0.02055923063841876,
            "t": 22.97127152069394,
            "term": "intervention"
          }
        ]
      }
      Digests dos dados
      learning_mindset ea9ef4597ae8b9d86f74fe5dc5ba13892d69fb5b950fca97b2b6eb8d95a68375
      sha256 do resultado
      9722fdc90a99de9ef22cfd777fe436a25f57272c208a1e8d4d07f50046aa82de
    4. 3Turno do modelo
      call_f68c04b1naive-olsFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.intervention = 0,4723.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": [
            "call_5663911a:coef.intervention"
          ]
        }
    5. 4Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      0,4723
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    6. 5Resposta

      Estimativa ingênua (infer.ols): coef.intervention = 0,4723.

      Figuras citadas: call_5663911a:coef.intervention · Parada: answered
      Figura da resposta: call_5663911a:coef.intervention = 0,4722720.4722716692516871 (se 0,02055920.02055923063841876)
    7. 6Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    8. 7Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatória0.47 in (0.3783, 0.4017)?

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    Época 1passoufalhou

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