Tarefa crb_papers.q021

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Was there an increase in the proportion of spending on civil administration and tax collection in treasuries dominated by mining after the 1777 Mining Tribunal, relative to treasuries without mining dominance?

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Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Was there an increase in the proportion of spending on civil administration and tax collection in treasuries dominated by mining after the 1777 Mining Tribunal, relative to treasuries without mining dominance?

   ds_0011 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | cajacode | Two-letter identifier of the regional Royal Treasury (Caja Real) in New Spain. Each code maps to a specific treasury jurisdiction (e.g., a port city or mining district). | | yearfin | Fiscal year associated with the account “closing” for that treasury. Values correspond to the year when the annual account was finalized and audited. | | near_tabasco | Indicator = 1 for treasury-years after a nearby Royal Treasury at Tabasco began operating, for treasuries whose jurisdictions were plausibly affected; 0 otherwise. Stays 1 thereafter. | | near_zimapan | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Zimapán treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Captures administrative geography changes from the creation of that caja. | | near_bolanos | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Bolaños treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Flags potential shifts in a pre-existing treasury’s catchment area. | | near_rosario | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Rosario treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_carmen | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Carmen treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_arispe | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Arizpe (Arispe) treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_chihuahua | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Chihuahua treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_saltillo | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Saltillo treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_michoacan | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Michoacán treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_puebla | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Puebla treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_oaxaca | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Oaxaca treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | prRec | Share of total expenditures devoted to civil administration and revenue collection in a treasury-year (0–1). Includes salaries for fiscal/judicial officials and collection costs (e.g., transport, supplies). Excludes military spending. Using a share allows comparability across treasuries of different sizes. | | tribunalm | Indicator of the Mining Tribunal’s presence for the treasury-year. Equals 1 from 1777 onward for mining jurisdictions served by the mining corporation and 0 otherwise. The Tribunal, established in the late 1770s, organized mining districts via deputations and had administrative, judicial, and credit-related functions for the sector. | | inilogtotal_c | Treasury-specific baseline size proxy: natural log of the treasury’s initial total revenue in nominal pesos (baseline is typically 1714 or the first observed year for newer treasuries). Constant within treasury over time. | Dataset Context: This dataset is a treasury-year panel built from official colonial fiscal accounts compiled by regional Royal Treasuries (cajas reales) in New Spain and audited centrally in Mexico City. Each treasury recorded gross revenue and detailed expenditures annually; local obligations were paid first and any surplus was remitted to the central treasury. The accounting aggregates were standardized into consistent categories to facilitate comparison across space and time. The panel primarily covers the Bourbon era, especially 1758–1786, a period marked by administrative centralization, reorganization of revenue services, and the gradual transition in many places from tax farming to direct collection (notably for sales taxes and customs). Royal initiatives expanded customs house networks, professionalized local tax administration, and clarified the division of responsibilities among regional treasuries and the central fiscal tribunal. Currency values are nominal pesos de ocho; figures are not price-adjusted, consistent with the historical accounts. Two features of the administrative landscape are encoded for time variation. First, the presence of the Mining Tribunal beginning in 1777, which established mining deputations and provided sectoral governance, adjudication of mining disputes, and credit intermediation. Second, a set of “near_” indicators mark years after new neighboring treasuries were created, signaling possible redrawings of fiscal catchment areas as jurisdictions were split or reassigned. The expenditure share devoted to civil administration and collection reflects the intensity of local state apparatus—staffing of fiscal and judicial officers and the operational resources needed to assess and collect revenues. Revenue baselines (logged initial totals) provide a stable proxy for the underlying scale of each treasury’s operations at the start of observation. Together, these variables offer a consistent view of regional fiscal administration during a period of wide-ranging institutional change in late colonial Mexico.

   file 382e29d87263d69f6346ae605d96a5bff393241e83ade52732d4a46efcb5ec2c · frame —

   ref_panel (reference)

   file 382e29d87263d69f6346ae605d96a5bff393241e83ade52732d4a46efcb5ec2c · frame —

   1. dropna {"columns":["prRec","tribunalm","cajacode","yearfin"]}
   2. merge {"how":"inner","on":["cajacode"],"with":"ref_treated"}
   3. filter {"query":"yearfin in [1765, 1766, 1767, 1768, 1769, 1770, 1771, 1772, 1773, 1774, 1775, 1776, 1778, 1779, 1780, 1781]"}
   4. derive {"args":{"cmp":"in","column":"yearfin","value":[1778,1779,1780,1781]},"name":"post_q","op":"indicator"}
   5. derive {"args":{"columns":["treated_unit","post_q"]},"name":"did","op":"interaction"}

   ref_treated (reference)

   file 382e29d87263d69f6346ae605d96a5bff393241e83ade52732d4a46efcb5ec2c · frame —

   1. dropna {"columns":["prRec","tribunalm","cajacode","yearfin"]}
   2. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"tribunalm","fn":"max","name":"treated_unit"}],"by":["cajacode"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_treated · dropna {"columns":["prRec","tribunalm","cajacode","yearfin"]}

   454 → 445 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 9fe4cd9878d3 → e4b89b5e1e7f
3. 2Transformação
   ref_treated · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"tribunalm","fn":"max","name":"treated_unit"}],"by":["cajacode"]}

   445 → 17 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: e4b89b5e1e7f → a0c8d5d77729
4. 3Transformação
   ref_panel · dropna {"columns":["prRec","tribunalm","cajacode","yearfin"]}

   454 → 445 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 9fe4cd9878d3 → e4b89b5e1e7f
5. 4Transformação
   ref_panel · merge {"how":"inner","on":["cajacode"],"with":"ref_treated"}

   445 → 445 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: e4b89b5e1e7f → f149d37ae3ad
6. 5Transformação
   ref_panel · filter {"query":"yearfin in [1765, 1766, 1767, 1768, 1769, 1770, 1771, 1772, 1773, 1774, 1775, 1776, 1778, 1779, 1780, 1781]"}

   445 → 250 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: f149d37ae3ad → e11285bf630b
7. 6Transformação
   ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"in","column":"yearfin","value":[1778,1779,1780,1781]},"name":"post_q","op":"indicator"}

   250 → 250 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: e11285bf630b → 07bde9c4c403
8. 7Transformação
   ref_panel · derive {"args":{"columns":["treated_unit","post_q"]},"name":"did","op":"interaction"}

   250 → 250 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 07bde9c4c403 → 6e97b31ed69f
9. 8Turno do modelo
   call_31749349referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   smf.ols('prRec ~ did + C(cajacode) + C(yearfin) + near_*').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=cajacode)

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.ols

     {
       "cluster": "cajacode",
       "controls": [
         "near_tabasco",
         "near_zimapan",
         "near_bolanos",
         "near_rosario",
         "near_carmen",
         "near_arispe",
         "near_chihuahua",
         "near_saltillo",
         "near_michoacan",
         "near_puebla",
         "near_oaxaca"
       ],
       "dataset": "ref_panel",
       "fe": [
         "cajacode",
         "yearfin"
       ],
       "x": [
         "did"
       ],
       "y": "prRec"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
10. 9Ferramenta
    infer.olsv0.1.0call_102d2974decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: smf.ols('prRec ~ did + C(cajacode) + C(yearfin) + near_*').fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=cajacode)

    Argumentos

    {
      "cluster": "cajacode",
      "controls": [
        "near_tabasco",
        "near_zimapan",
        "near_bolanos",
        "near_rosario",
        "near_carmen",
        "near_arispe",
        "near_chihuahua",
        "near_saltillo",
        "near_michoacan",
        "near_puebla",
        "near_oaxaca"
      ],
      "dataset": "ref_panel",
      "fe": [
        "cajacode",
        "yearfin"
      ],
      "intercept": true,
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "HC1",
      "subset": null,
      "weights": null,
      "x": [
        "did"
      ],
      "y": "prRec"
    }

    Figuras call_102d2974

    Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
    coef.did Coefficient on did in the regression of prRec	0,0466946	0.04669461453584035	0,04214640.04214643409805285	-0,0426518 – 0,136041

    Diagnósticos

    • n_obs = 250250
    • k = 3636
    • r2 = 0,8190530.819053134022548
    • df_resid = 214214
    • se_type = "cluster"
    • n_clusters = 1717
    • fixed_effects = "cajacode (17 levels), yearfin (16 levels)"

    Tabelas (1)

    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": 0.11519829139301331,
          "ci_low": 0.06627394104531444,
          "coef": 0.09073611621916387,
          "p": 6.930657828677841e-7,
          "se": 0.011539277336037417,
          "t": 7.863240788553802,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.13604106352358195,
          "ci_low": -0.04265183445190126,
          "coef": 0.04669461453584035,
          "p": 0.2842767305924658,
          "se": 0.04214643409805285,
          "t": 1.1079137662561498,
          "term": "did"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -0.07497877313324264,
          "ci_low": -0.12510957198718123,
          "coef": -0.10004417256021193,
          "p": 2.659946744230206e-7,
          "se": 0.011823829789083994,
          "t": -8.46123247245785,
          "term": "near_tabasco"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -0.0288468272696214,
          "ci_low": -0.07886440504079899,
          "coef": -0.053855616155210194,
          "p": 0.0003177828214054979,
          "se": 0.011797125510642268,
          "t": -4.565147340903229,
          "term": "near_zimapan"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.002392543167484735,
          "ci_low": -0.04762503460369287,
          "coef": -0.022616245718104066,
          "p": 0.07325976624395796,
          "se": 0.011797125510642272,
          "t": -1.917097999652694,
          "term": "near_bolanos"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.024701969749077766,
          "ci_low": -0.04865644401630222,
          "coef": -0.011977237133612224,
          "p": 0.4987140889759024,
          "se": 0.01730228557670197,
          "t": -0.6922343918389556,
          "term": "near_rosario"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.15568361001922282,
          "ci_low": 0.010332927087696828,
          "coef": 0.08300826855345983,
          "p": 0.027716915019645908,
          "se": 0.03428235284494087,
          "t": 2.4213118897908306,
          "term": "near_carmen"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.005568507890527392,
          "ci_low": -0.06504213527049418,
          "coef": -0.029736813689983394,
          "p": 0.09313906566832751,
          "se": 0.01665419752169126,
          "t": -1.785544674323256,
          "term": "near_arispe"
        }
      ]
    }

    • dropped as collinear with the other regressors: ['near_chihuahua', 'near_saltillo', 'near_michoacan', 'near_puebla', 'near_oaxaca', 'cajacode[CM]', 'cajacode[GA]', 'cajacode[PH]']

    Digests dos dados

    ref_panel 6e97b31ed69f7820685d4a6c4668bc344a2d70dd49afd3669cfe1bef152a3e31

    sha256 do resultado

    c80a5ee42f7d708ec43dd13028c2be9acda19dcb40c2116dcc142bd220955532

    Resultado mostrado ao modelo
11. 10Turno do modelo
    call_6cb5e639referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

    Chamadas pedidas

    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

      {
        "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.did = 0,04669. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
        "caveats": [],
        "figure_refs": [
          "call_102d2974:coef.did"
        ]
      }

    Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
12. 11Guarda
    resposta aceita

    Números encontrados

    0,04669

    Sem lastro

    —

    Não citados

    —

    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
13. 12Resposta

    Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.did = 0,04669. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

    Figuras citadas: call_102d2974:coef.did · Parada: answered

    Figura da resposta: call_102d2974:coef.did = 0,04669460.04669461453584035 (se 0,04214640.04214643409805285)
14. 13Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
15. 14Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.04669461454 in [-0.03750113816, 0.1308903672]?
16. 15Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.04669461454 vs 0.04669461453584012
17. 16Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.0421464341 vs 0.0429570166820007

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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