Tarefa crb_papers.q044

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Among favela complexes where a UPP first became active at month index 589, how did the average monthly rate of fatal police shootings (Autos de Resistencia) per 100,000 residents change from month indices 577–588 to 589–600, relative to complexes that remained without an active UPP through 600, accounting for BOPE or armed-forces occupation?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Among favela complexes where a UPP first became active at month index 589, how did the average monthly rate of fatal police shootings (Autos de Resistencia) per 100,000 residents change from month indices 577–588 to 589–600, relative to complexes that remained without an active UPP through 600, accounting for BOPE or armed-forces occupation?

   ds_0023 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | complexo_id | Stable numeric identifier for each favela complex (a cluster of adjacent favelas) used as the unit of observation across months. | | upp_post | Binary indicator equal to 1 in months when a Pacifying Police Unit is formally active in the complexo, and 0 otherwise. Reflects the period of permanent community-policing presence established by the state. | | bope | Binary indicator equal to 1 in months when the Special Police Operations Battalion (BOPE) or the armed forces maintained an occupation/stabilization presence in the complexo, and 0 otherwise. In the administrative records used here, these occupation periods are coded separately from the permanent posts. | | date | Integer month index running from 540 through 677 in this extract; an increase of 1 denotes one month. Use these recorded indices to select periods; no calendar-date conversion is specified here. | | autos_rate2 | Monthly rate per 100,000 residents of deaths officially registered as “Autos de Resistência” (fatalities during police operations) within the complexo. Incidents were geocoded to complexo boundaries and aggregated by month; rates use population estimates as denominators. | | complexo2 | Auxiliary numeric field carried over from the source export related to the complexo dimension; no substantive documentation provided in the materials. | Dataset Context: This panel assembles monthly records for favela complexes in Rio de Janeiro during a period when the state created permanent policing posts in selected territories. It integrates two administrative sources: (1) public security records on deaths registered during police operations (locally termed “Autos de Resistência” in the period covered) and (2) program logs detailing when permanent posts were active and when occupation/stabilization forces (BOPE or the armed forces) were present. Security incidents were geocoded to mapped complex boundaries, aggregated to the complex–month level, and converted to rates per 100,000 using census-based population estimates for each complex. The spatial unit—a complexo—groups adjacent favelas that share borders and, in practice, correspond to the operational footprint of policing deployments. The temporal resolution is monthly, spanning indices 540–677, a phase that includes the roll‑out and consolidation of permanent posts and earlier occupation phases. In the coding scheme used here, occupation/stabilization months and permanent‑post months are tracked with nonoverlapping indicators. For the comparison centered on first UPP activation at index 589, the earlier window is 577–588 and the later window is 589–600; comparison complexes remain without an active UPP through 600. For first activation at 606, the windows are 594–605 and 606–617, with comparison complexes remaining without an active UPP through 617. Each window contains 12 months. The outcome for each complex and window is its mean monthly fatal-shooting rate, not a cumulative count; the occupation indicator is likewise averaged within each window. Measurement follows local administrative definitions in effect at the time. “Autos de Resistência” reflects fatalities recorded as resulting from confrontations with police; these events were manually geocoded and then aggregated to complex–month cells. Rates normalize counts by resident population to facilitate comparisons across differently sized complexes and over time. As with any administrative system, users should be mindful of potential changes in reporting practices, geocoding precision, and population denominators when interpreting temporal or cross‑sectional variation.

   file 713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad · frame —

   ref_panel (reference)

   file 713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}
   3. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}
   4. select {"columns":["complexo_id"]}
   5. merge {"how":"left","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_td"}
   6. filter {"query":"td == 589 or td != td or td > 600"}
   7. merge {"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_pre"}
   8. merge {"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_post"}
   9. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"td","value":589},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}
   10. derive {"args":{"column":"treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"treated","op":"map"}
   11. reshape_long {"id":["complexo_id"],"j":"post","stubs":["y","bope"]}
   12. derive {"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"interaction","op":"interaction"}

   ref_post (reference)

   file 713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}
   3. filter {"query":"date >= 589 and date <= 600"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y1"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope1"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}

   ref_pre (reference)

   file 713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}
   3. filter {"query":"date >= 577 and date <= 588"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y0"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope0"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}

   ref_td (reference)

   file 713df5a475f4ed9dbc7d9c5c5ae48ca0baaa990b25b56e1cf40b8c97ae7d78ad · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}
   3. filter {"query":"upp_post == 1"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"date","fn":"min","name":"td"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_td · select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}

   36956 → 36956 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: a5a16e216dcd → 3b1627f1ee66
3. 2Transformação
   ref_td · dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}

   36956 → 36956 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → 3b1627f1ee66
4. 3Transformação
   ref_td · filter {"query":"upp_post == 1"}

   36956 → 2127 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → 4d2583acd8a2
5. 4Transformação
   ref_td · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"date","fn":"min","name":"td"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}

   2127 → 37 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 4d2583acd8a2 → 1ccb5551ea29
6. 5Transformação
   ref_pre · select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}

   36956 → 36956 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: a5a16e216dcd → 3b1627f1ee66
7. 6Transformação
   ref_pre · dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}

   36956 → 36956 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → 3b1627f1ee66
8. 7Transformação
   ref_pre · filter {"query":"date >= 577 and date <= 588"}

   36956 → 3420 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → cbc74b8b5bae
9. 8Transformação
   ref_pre · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y0"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope0"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}

   3420 → 285 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: cbc74b8b5bae → 82a7881831a5
10. 9Transformação
    ref_post · select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}

    36956 → 36956 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: a5a16e216dcd → 3b1627f1ee66
11. 10Transformação
    ref_post · dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}

    36956 → 36956 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → 3b1627f1ee66
12. 11Transformação
    ref_post · filter {"query":"date >= 589 and date <= 600"}

    36956 → 3420 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → 3fd94a6ba432
13. 12Transformação
    ref_post · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"mean","name":"y1"},{"column":"bope","fn":"mean","name":"bope1"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}

    3420 → 285 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 3fd94a6ba432 → 3bc3caf6abf4
14. 13Transformação
    ref_panel · select {"columns":["complexo_id","upp_post","bope","date","autos_rate2"]}

    36956 → 36956 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: a5a16e216dcd → 3b1627f1ee66
15. 14Transformação
    ref_panel · dropna {"columns":["autos_rate2"]}

    36956 → 36956 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → 3b1627f1ee66
16. 15Transformação
    ref_panel · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"autos_rate2","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["complexo_id"]}

    36956 → 286 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 3b1627f1ee66 → 301a2801ada7
17. 16Transformação
    ref_panel · select {"columns":["complexo_id"]}

    286 → 286 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 301a2801ada7 → 137accc08167
18. 17Transformação
    ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_td"}

    286 → 286 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 137accc08167 → 2cd0217c33eb
19. 18Transformação
    ref_panel · filter {"query":"td == 589 or td != td or td > 600"}

    286 → 282 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 2cd0217c33eb → a8e810c48ddc
20. 19Transformação
    ref_panel · merge {"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_pre"}

    282 → 281 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: a8e810c48ddc → fe0e668fc41a
21. 20Transformação
    ref_panel · merge {"how":"inner","on":["complexo_id"],"with":"ref_post"}

    281 → 281 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: fe0e668fc41a → 53121b8f6508
22. 21Transformação
    ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"td","value":589},"name":"treated","op":"indicator"}

    281 → 281 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 53121b8f6508 → da7f5aac9cb5
23. 22Transformação
    ref_panel · derive {"args":{"column":"treated","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"treated","op":"map"}

    281 → 281 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: da7f5aac9cb5 → b0e85d4df0ee
24. 23Transformação
    ref_panel · reshape_long {"id":["complexo_id"],"j":"post","stubs":["y","bope"]}

    281 → 562 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: b0e85d4df0ee → 11c131b59e1f
25. 24Transformação
    ref_panel · derive {"args":{"columns":["treated","post"]},"name":"interaction","op":"interaction"}

    562 → 562 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 11c131b59e1f → eb6342b01061
26. 25Turno do modelo
    call_9454ae99referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

    Texto visível

    sm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, interaction, bope]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=unit, use_t=True) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

    Chamadas pedidas

    • infer.ols

      {
        "cluster": "complexo_id",
        "controls": [
          "treated",
          "post",
          "bope"
        ],
        "dataset": "ref_panel",
        "x": [
          "interaction"
        ],
        "y": "y"
      }

    Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
27. 26Ferramenta
    infer.olsv0.1.0call_c6040e13decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: sm.OLS(y, [const, treated, post, interaction, bope]).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=unit, use_t=True) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

    Argumentos

    {
      "cluster": "complexo_id",
      "controls": [
        "treated",
        "post",
        "bope"
      ],
      "dataset": "ref_panel",
      "fe": [],
      "intercept": true,
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "HC1",
      "subset": null,
      "weights": null,
      "x": [
        "interaction"
      ],
      "y": "y"
    }

    Figuras call_c6040e13

    Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
    coef.interaction Coefficient on interaction in the regression of y	-7,32013	-7.3201335287756395	0,3345470.3345472949801354	-7,97868 – -6,66159

    Diagnósticos

    • n_obs = 562562
    • k = 55
    • r2 = 0,001556930.0015569340632529682
    • df_resid = 557557
    • se_type = "cluster"
    • n_clusters = 281281

    Tabelas (1)

    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": 2.109532766509828,
          "ci_low": 1.1156682535942288,
          "coef": 1.6126005100520282,
          "p": 6.982741963410002e-10,
          "se": 0.25244561787080483,
          "t": 6.387912468646279,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -6.6615863787458345,
          "ci_low": -7.9786806788054445,
          "coef": -7.3201335287756395,
          "p": 1.4592283434863774e-62,
          "se": 0.3345472949801354,
          "t": -21.88071354518138,
          "term": "interaction"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 6.047194876776549,
          "ci_low": 5.053330363860946,
          "coef": 5.5502626203187475,
          "p": 6.229970810231967e-63,
          "se": 0.25244561787080627,
          "t": 21.985973324200057,
          "term": "treated"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 0.8158175484346688,
          "ci_low": -0.5012767516249426,
          "coef": 0.15727039840486312,
          "p": 0.6386501162797579,
          "se": 0.33454729498013575,
          "t": 0.47009914820623877,
          "term": "post"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": -12.279193937778473,
          "ci_low": -12.279193937778473,
          "coef": -12.279193937778473,
          "p": 0,
          "se": 0,
          "t": null,
          "term": "bope"
        }
      ]
    }

    Digests dos dados

    ref_panel eb6342b01061f595a555c57759a01fdaf3559b275b5ade783961bd80a7cdaa9a

    sha256 do resultado

    42ffaa6409fff6e0a0fd9d8a919723eb37b26f79d5cfa9f7e618137289333e17

    Resultado mostrado ao modelo
28. 27Turno do modelo
    call_aad10ef4referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

    Chamadas pedidas

    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

      {
        "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.interaction = -7,320. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
        "caveats": [],
        "figure_refs": [
          "call_c6040e13:coef.interaction"
        ]
      }

    Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
29. 28Guarda
    resposta aceita

    Números encontrados

    -7,320

    Sem lastro

    —

    Não citados

    —

    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
30. 29Resposta

    Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.interaction = -7,320. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

    Figuras citadas: call_c6040e13:coef.interaction · Parada: answered

    Figura da resposta: call_c6040e13:coef.interaction = -7,32013-7.3201335287756395 (se 0,3345470.3345472949801354)
31. 30Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
32. 31Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-7.320133529 in [-7.975846227, -6.664420831]?
33. 32Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada-7.320133529 vs -7.320133528775574
34. 33Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.334547295 vs 0.334547294980151

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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