Tarefa crb_papers.q047

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

How did primary-school enrollment (percent of ages 5-14) evolve after the onset of a country's first civil war in 1849 compared with countries that had not experienced civil war by 1859?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   How did primary-school enrollment (percent of ages 5-14) evolve after the onset of a country's first civil war in 1849 compared with countries that had not experienced civil war by 1859?

   ds_0025 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | year | Gregorian calendar year of observation. One record per country-year. Coverage varies by country but spans much of 1828–2015. | | Countryid | Numeric identifier for countries in the panel. Serves as a stable code to group observations by country across years. | | primratio | Annual primary-school enrollment rate, expressed as a percentage of the resident population ages 5–14 enrolled in primary school (public and, where sources report it, private). Series are compiled from historical administrative counts and harmonized to a common 5–14 denominator; values are continuous percentages (0–100). | | treatment | Civil-war exposure indicator at the country-year level. Coded 1 from the first year of the earliest intrastate war that directly involved the state onward, and 0 otherwise; war timing is drawn from the Correlates of War intrastate war records. | Dataset Context: This is an annual country–year panel that brings together long-run measures of primary-school enrollment coverage and the timing of internal armed conflict for European and Latin American countries. The schooling series were constructed from historical administrative sources, anchored in International Historical Statistics and cross-checked against widely used decennial benchmarks, then extended backward with national statistical yearbooks, education reports compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Education (1872–1915), and regional data handbooks. The resulting enrollment measure reflects the share of children ages 5–14 enrolled in primary school each year and is available far earlier than most modern datasets, enabling analysis across the nineteenth, twentieth, and early twenty-first centuries. Civil conflict timing is drawn from the Correlates of War intrastate war dataset, focusing on episodes where the central state was a combatant. For each country, the panel flags the first qualifying episode and then maintains an “ever-exposed since onset” indicator thereafter, aligning conflict timing with the annual schooling series. Because the coverage begins as early as the 1820s for some countries and extends to 2015 for others, the panel spans periods of early state involvement in schooling, subsequent expansion and standardization of primary education, and the modern era of administrative reporting. Start years and continuity differ by country, reflecting when governments first recorded enrollment statistics and when national primary education systems took form. The dataset is suitable for historical description of how primary education coverage evolved over time in relation to episodes of internal conflict documented in comparative records.

   file c4a713c165661449eafadc60e8646b778b01b8c8bff567f77bc6adaa39ba2fb0 · frame —

   ref_adopt (reference)

   file c4a713c165661449eafadc60e8646b778b01b8c8bff567f77bc6adaa39ba2fb0 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   3. filter {"query":"treatment == 1"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"adopt"}],"by":["Countryid"]}

   ref_panel (reference)

   file c4a713c165661449eafadc60e8646b778b01b8c8bff567f77bc6adaa39ba2fb0 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [1848, 1859]"}
   4. merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_years"}
   5. merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_adopt"}
   6. merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_pre"}
   7. merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_post"}
   8. filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and t_pre == 0 and ((adopt == 1849 and t_post == 1) or t_post == 0)"}
   9. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"t_post","value":1},"name":"TreatCohort","op":"indicator"}
   10. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":1859},"name":"Post","op":"indicator"}
   11. derive {"args":{"columns":["TreatCohort","Post"]},"name":"Interaction","op":"interaction"}

   ref_post (reference)

   file c4a713c165661449eafadc60e8646b778b01b8c8bff567f77bc6adaa39ba2fb0 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year == 1859"}
   4. select {"columns":["Countryid","treatment"]}
   5. rename {"map":{"treatment":"t_post"}}

   ref_pre (reference)

   file c4a713c165661449eafadc60e8646b778b01b8c8bff567f77bc6adaa39ba2fb0 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year == 1848"}
   4. select {"columns":["Countryid","treatment"]}
   5. rename {"map":{"treatment":"t_pre"}}

   ref_years (reference)

   file c4a713c165661449eafadc60e8646b778b01b8c8bff567f77bc6adaa39ba2fb0 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}
   3. filter {"query":"year in [1848, 1859]"}
   4. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"primratio","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["Countryid","year"]}
   5. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["Countryid"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_adopt · select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

   3016 → 3016 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → d6c08e9f9b08
3. 2Transformação
   ref_adopt · dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

   3016 → 2882 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → 725c68f5e100
4. 3Transformação
   ref_adopt · filter {"query":"treatment == 1"}

   2882 → 479 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 725c68f5e100 → ec3f80967a77
5. 4Transformação
   ref_adopt · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"year","fn":"min","name":"adopt"}],"by":["Countryid"]}

   479 → 24 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: ec3f80967a77 → 3d091c3870d8
6. 5Transformação
   ref_years · select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

   3016 → 3016 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → d6c08e9f9b08
7. 6Transformação
   ref_years · dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

   3016 → 2882 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → 725c68f5e100
8. 7Transformação
   ref_years · filter {"query":"year in [1848, 1859]"}

   2882 → 13 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 725c68f5e100 → 70c957f10085
9. 8Transformação
   ref_years · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"primratio","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["Countryid","year"]}

   13 → 13 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 70c957f10085 → 0fc21d1e6bba
10. 9Transformação
    ref_years · collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["Countryid"]}

    13 → 8 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 0fc21d1e6bba → a3a0a0c5a296
11. 10Transformação
    ref_pre · select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

    3016 → 3016 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → d6c08e9f9b08
12. 11Transformação
    ref_pre · dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

    3016 → 2882 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → 725c68f5e100
13. 12Transformação
    ref_pre · filter {"query":"year == 1848"}

    2882 → 5 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 725c68f5e100 → 3011f2ebce4c
14. 13Transformação
    ref_pre · select {"columns":["Countryid","treatment"]}

    5 → 5 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 3011f2ebce4c → 78003f627396
15. 14Transformação
    ref_pre · rename {"map":{"treatment":"t_pre"}}

    5 → 5 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 78003f627396 → 53de210e067e
16. 15Transformação
    ref_post · select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

    3016 → 3016 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → d6c08e9f9b08
17. 16Transformação
    ref_post · dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

    3016 → 2882 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → 725c68f5e100
18. 17Transformação
    ref_post · filter {"query":"year == 1859"}

    2882 → 8 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 725c68f5e100 → 260d0c79d4a1
19. 18Transformação
    ref_post · select {"columns":["Countryid","treatment"]}

    8 → 8 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 260d0c79d4a1 → 3669fc8159b6
20. 19Transformação
    ref_post · rename {"map":{"treatment":"t_post"}}

    8 → 8 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 3669fc8159b6 → 6d28123fe20d
21. 20Transformação
    ref_panel · select {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

    3016 → 3016 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → d6c08e9f9b08
22. 21Transformação
    ref_panel · dropna {"columns":["year","Countryid","primratio","treatment"]}

    3016 → 2882 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: d6c08e9f9b08 → 725c68f5e100
23. 22Transformação
    ref_panel · filter {"query":"year in [1848, 1859]"}

    2882 → 13 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 725c68f5e100 → 70c957f10085
24. 23Transformação
    ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_years"}

    13 → 13 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 70c957f10085 → 31a842ea4e01
25. 24Transformação
    ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_adopt"}

    13 → 13 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 31a842ea4e01 → 40aa6d7460eb
26. 25Transformação
    ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_pre"}

    13 → 13 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 40aa6d7460eb → dcfb72f270c0
27. 26Transformação
    ref_panel · merge {"how":"left","on":["Countryid"],"with":"ref_post"}

    13 → 13 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: dcfb72f270c0 → 0da560dec8a3
28. 27Transformação
    ref_panel · filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and t_pre == 0 and ((adopt == 1849 and t_post == 1) or t_post == 0)"}

    13 → 10 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 0da560dec8a3 → b646669e7962
29. 28Transformação
    ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"t_post","value":1},"name":"TreatCohort","op":"indicator"}

    10 → 10 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: b646669e7962 → 22d2919fde66
30. 29Transformação
    ref_panel · derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":1859},"name":"Post","op":"indicator"}

    10 → 10 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 22d2919fde66 → 8b1474868c9a
31. 30Transformação
    ref_panel · derive {"args":{"columns":["TreatCohort","Post"]},"name":"Interaction","op":"interaction"}

    10 → 10 linhas

    Frame antes → depois: 8b1474868c9a → a8d60e096de3
32. 31Turno do modelo
    call_ddd9d7a6referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

    Texto visível

    sm.OLS(primratio, add_constant([Post, TreatCohort, Interaction])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=Countryid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

    Chamadas pedidas

    • infer.ols

      {
        "cluster": "Countryid",
        "controls": [
          "Post",
          "TreatCohort"
        ],
        "dataset": "ref_panel",
        "x": [
          "Interaction"
        ],
        "y": "primratio"
      }

    Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
33. 32Ferramenta
    infer.olsv0.1.0call_22b628ccdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

    Motivo: sm.OLS(primratio, add_constant([Post, TreatCohort, Interaction])).fit(cov_type='cluster', groups=Countryid) (CR1 errors with statsmodels' default G/(G-1)·(N-1)/(N-K) correction)

    Argumentos

    {
      "cluster": "Countryid",
      "controls": [
        "Post",
        "TreatCohort"
      ],
      "dataset": "ref_panel",
      "fe": [],
      "intercept": true,
      "level": 0.95,
      "se": "HC1",
      "subset": null,
      "weights": null,
      "x": [
        "Interaction"
      ],
      "y": "primratio"
    }

    Figuras call_22b628cc

    Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
    coef.Interaction Coefficient on Interaction in the regression of primratio	9,25823	9.258225123087565	7,032687.03268373528866	-10,2676 – 28,7841

    Diagnósticos

    • n_obs = 1010
    • k = 44
    • r2 = 0,04885730.048857334702598676
    • df_resid = 66
    • se_type = "cluster"
    • n_clusters = 55

    Tabelas (1)

    {
      "coefficients": [
        {
          "ci_high": 83.31299838966797,
          "ci_low": 42.765602175924485,
          "coef": 63.039300282796226,
          "p": 0.000989918586054957,
          "se": 7.302034558117959,
          "t": 8.633114480773438,
          "term": "Intercept"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 28.784085456333898,
          "ci_low": -10.26763521015877,
          "coef": 9.258225123087565,
          "p": 0.25838523510511685,
          "se": 7.03268373528866,
          "t": 1.3164569134015744,
          "term": "Interaction"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 8.59851833632801,
          "ci_low": -7.647908493391811,
          "coef": 0.47530492146809894,
          "p": 0.8788239298784174,
          "se": 2.9257604984346393,
          "t": 0.16245517079145744,
          "term": "Post"
        },
        {
          "ci_high": 43.1762874642815,
          "ci_low": -56.88198992806731,
          "coef": -6.852851231892903,
          "p": 0.7230483317885106,
          "se": 18.019134829107433,
          "t": -0.38030967062986093,
          "term": "TreatCohort"
        }
      ]
    }

    Digests dos dados

    ref_panel a8d60e096de31e3d80966837c2e6455b1c775e0b8d5848ed661c06d2af0822db

    sha256 do resultado

    61a74b9eed42fabba27631626dd3cd5e6b18ab507dd77e1d9c33c0c0f154fe74

    Resultado mostrado ao modelo
34. 33Turno do modelo
    call_ba0641e0referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

    Chamadas pedidas

    • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

      {
        "answer": "Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.Interaction = 9,258. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
        "caveats": [],
        "figure_refs": [
          "call_22b628cc:coef.Interaction"
        ]
      }

    Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
35. 34Guarda
    resposta aceita

    Números encontrados

    9,258

    Sem lastro

    —

    Não citados

    —

    1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
36. 35Resposta

    Estimativa (infer.ols): coef.Interaction = 9,258. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

    Figuras citadas: call_22b628cc:coef.Interaction · Parada: answered

    Figura da resposta: call_22b628cc:coef.Interaction = 9,258239.258225123087565 (se 7,032687.03268373528866)
37. 36Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
38. 37Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória9.258225123 in [-4.525834998, 23.04228524]?
39. 38Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada9.258225123 vs 9.258225123087575
40. 39Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada7.032683735 vs 7.032683735288662

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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