Tarefa crb_papers.q064

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of a marginal increase in the locality-level share of households actually visited by canvassers on the probability that a woman who was targeted (contacted) votes in the 2013 presidential election? Report the local average treatment effect for the subgroup of women whose exposure responds to the experimentally assigned canvassing intensity.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect of a marginal increase in the locality-level share of households actually visited by canvassers on the probability that a woman who was targeted (contacted) votes in the 2013 presidential election? Report the local average treatment effect for the subgroup of women whose exposure responds to the experimentally assigned canvassing intensity.

   ds_0034 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|-------------| | id_indiv | Unique individual respondent identifier. | | loc | Locality identifier (cluster code used to group households). | | department | Administrative department code (first-level region). | | district | Administrative district identifier (subdivision of department). | | locality | Locality name or numeric locality code. | | treatment | Binary indicator of experimental group assignment (campaign-group flag). | | treat2 | Secondary assignment or variant indicator (auxiliary assignment flag). | | control | Binary indicator for membership in the comparison condition used in the study design. | | D2D | Binary indicator for assignment to the door-to-door campaign arm. | | massive | Binary indicator for assignment to the mass/public rally information arm. | | D2DT | Individual-level indicator for households that were directly visited by a canvasser. | | D2DC | Individual-level indicator for households in door-to-door localities that were not directly visited. | | lineal | Binary indicator denoting a linear settlement layout (houses aligned along a road). | | lineal_inv | Complementary indicator to lineal (inverse or non-linear locality flag). | | dpto1 | Department dummy (coded indicator used in analyses to capture department membership). | | age | Respondent age in years. | | married | Binary indicator for marital status (1 = married). | | children | Binary indicator for whether the respondent has any children. | | num_children | Number of children reported by the respondent. | | employed | Binary indicator for whether the respondent is formally employed. | | languag | Language indicator (captures primary/only language spoken, e.g., Guaraní/Spanish). | | yrseduc | Years of formal schooling completed by the respondent. | | bornloc | Binary indicator for whether the respondent was born in the same locality. | | hh_asset_index | Household asset index (composite wealth proxy based on owned assets). | | ratio_treat | Proportion of households in the locality that were actually visited (0–1 scale). | | fecha_registro | Date code or numeric value associated with voter registration (registration date field). | | registro | Individual-level indicator for whether the respondent was registered to vote (registration status). | | elecc_muni2010 | Indicator for whether the respondent voted in the 2010 municipal election. | | elecc_presid2013 | Indicator for whether the respondent voted in the April 2013 presidential election. | | elecc_presid2008 | Indicator for whether the respondent voted in the 2008 presidential election. | | log_pop | Natural log of locality population (log-population). | | mujeres_perc | Percentage of locality population that is female. | | mujeres_PEA | Percentage of economically active population that is female (locality-level). | | pob_0_14_perc | Percentage of locality population aged 0–14. | | pob_15_64_perc | Percentage of locality population aged 15–64. | | pob_65mas_perc | Percentage of locality population aged 65 and over. | | analfabetos_perc | Percentage of illiterate residents in the locality. | | asiste_escuela_perc | Percentage of school-age population attending school (locality-level). | | TASA_women | Female labor/activity rate at the locality level (labor-market indicator). | | TASA_men | Male labor/activity rate at the locality level (labor-market indicator). | | electricidad_perc | Percentage of dwellings with access to electricity in the locality. | | agua_perc | Percentage of dwellings with running water within the household in the locality. | | basura_perc | Percentage of dwellings with trash collection service in the locality. | | fono_fijo_perc | Percentage of dwellings with a fixed (landline) telephone in the locality. | | fono_cel_perc | Percentage of dwellings with a mobile phone in the locality. | | ocupantes | Number of occupants in the dwelling (household size measure). | | Rural | Indicator for rural locality status (1 = rural). | | distancia2_final | Distance measure to the nearest voting/registration center (locality-level distance). | | cedula_perc | Percentage of residents with a national ID card (cédula) in the locality. | | registrado_perc | Percentage of residents registered to vote in the locality. | | extranjero | Percentage or indicator of foreign-born/non-native residents in the locality. | | log_viv_ocupadas | Natural log of occupied dwellings in the locality. | | desague_perc | Percentage of dwellings with sewage connection in the locality. | | dens_real | Empirical density measure for the locality (population per area unit). | | dens_censo | Census-based population density metric for the locality. | | log_hectareas | Natural log of locality area in hectares. | | attendance_rallies | Self-reported attendance at public rallies (individual survey response). | | interes | Self-reported interest in politics or political participation (survey item). | | izquierda | Self-placement or indicator for left political orientation (survey response). | | derecha | Self-placement or indicator for right political orientation (survey response). | | centro | Self-placement or indicator for centrist political orientation (survey response). | | D2D30 | Assignment indicator for the allocated 30% door-to-door intensity category (planned assignment). | | D2D40 | Assignment indicator for the allocated 40% door-to-door intensity category (planned assignment). | | D2D50 | Assignment indicator for the allocated 50% door-to-door intensity category (planned assignment). | | db_age | Baseline or database value of respondent age (value from prior census/baseline round). | | db_married | Baseline marital-status value (from prior census/baseline round). | | db_children | Baseline indicator of whether respondent had children (baseline measure). | | db_num_children | Baseline number of children (from prior round). | | db_employed | Baseline employment indicator (from prior census/baseline round). | | db_languag | Baseline language indicator (value from prior round). | | db_yrseduc | Baseline years of education (from prior round). | | db_bornloc | Baseline indicator for born-in-locality status (prior-round value). | | db_hh_asset_index | Baseline household asset index (from prior census or baseline survey). | | db_fecha_registro | Baseline registration date field (prior-round value). | | db_elecc_muni2010 | Baseline indicator of voting in the 2010 municipal election (prior-round or administrative match). | | db_elecc_presid2008 | Baseline indicator of voting in the 2008 presidential election (administrative baseline). | | db_derecha | Baseline indicator for right political orientation (prior-round survey value). | | db_izquierda | Baseline indicator for left political orientation (prior-round survey value). | | db_centro | Baseline indicator for centrist political orientation (prior-round survey value). | | db_interes | Baseline self-reported interest in politics (prior-round value). | | db_log_pop | Baseline log-population for the locality (from earlier census/benchmark). | | db_mujeres_perc | Baseline percentage female (locality-level baseline). | | db_mujeres_PEA | Baseline percent of economically active population female (baseline). | | db_pob_0_14_perc | Baseline percent aged 0–14 (locality-level baseline). | | db_pob_15_64_perc | Baseline percent aged 15–64 (locality-level baseline). | | db_pob_65mas_perc | Baseline percent aged 65+ (locality-level baseline). | | db_analfabetos_perc | Baseline percent illiterate (locality-level baseline). | | db_asiste_escuela_perc | Baseline percent attending school (locality baseline). | | db_TASA_women | Baseline female labor/activity rate (locality-level baseline). | | db_TASA_men | Baseline male labor/activity rate (locality-level baseline). | | db_electricidad_perc | Baseline percentage of dwellings with electricity (locality-level baseline). | | db_agua_perc | Baseline percentage of dwellings with running water (locality-level baseline). | | db_basura_perc | Baseline percentage of dwellings with trash collection (locality-level baseline). | | db_fono_fijo_perc | Baseline percentage with fixed (landline) phones (locality-level baseline). | | db_fono_cel_perc | Baseline percentage with mobile phones (locality-level baseline). | | db_ocupantes | Baseline average number of occupants per household (baseline household-size measure). | | db_Rural | Baseline rural-status indicator (locality-level baseline). | | db_distancia2_final | Baseline distance to voting/registration center (baseline locality distance). | | db_cedula_perc | Baseline percentage with national ID card (locality-level baseline). | | db_registrado_perc | Baseline percentage registered to vote (locality-level baseline). | | db_extranjero | Baseline percentage of foreign-born residents (locality-level baseline). | | db_log_viv_ocupadas | Baseline log of occupied dwellings (locality-level baseline). | | db_desague_perc | Baseline percentage of dwellings with sewage (locality-level baseline). | | db_dens_real | Baseline empirical density measure (locality-level baseline). | | db_dens_censo | Baseline census-based density (locality-level baseline). | | db_log_hectareas | Baseline log of locality area in hectares (baseline). | | db_attendance_rallies | Baseline self-reported attendance at rallies (prior-round survey value). | | db_ratio_treat | Baseline or planned proportion of households slated for visits (assignment-intensity plan). | Data Description: This dataset originates from field data collection in rural Paraguay conducted around the 2013 presidential election and brings together individual-level household survey responses (adult women), matched administrative electoral records, locality-level socio-demographic indicators from census sources, and baseline/census measures. Survey teams visited sampled rural localities in two departments, recorded demographic and attitudinal information, and merged those records with locality characteristics (including satellite-derived settlement layout) and administrative voting/registration information; a set of assignment/assignment-intensity flags and baseline ("db_") variables are included to document planned allocation and pre-intervention/locality benchmarks.

   file c9f5cdf584fbb06e35411c84ea9fdee0673eb32322f2af2114062de938a45659 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file c9f5cdf584fbb06e35411c84ea9fdee0673eb32322f2af2114062de938a45659 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["elecc_presid2013","ratio_treat","D2D30","D2D40","D2D50","dpto1","elecc_presid2008","db_elecc_presid2008","loc"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["elecc_presid2013","ratio_treat","D2D30","D2D40","D2D50","dpto1","elecc_presid2008","db_elecc_presid2008","loc"]}
   3. dummies {"column":"dpto1","drop_first":true,"prefix":"dpto1"}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_iv · select {"columns":["elecc_presid2013","ratio_treat","D2D30","D2D40","D2D50","dpto1","elecc_presid2008","db_elecc_presid2008","loc"]}

   4025 → 4025 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 1fa9d0cb8000 → 464602e4ad15
3. 2Transformação
   ref_iv · dropna {"columns":["elecc_presid2013","ratio_treat","D2D30","D2D40","D2D50","dpto1","elecc_presid2008","db_elecc_presid2008","loc"]}

   4025 → 3350 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 464602e4ad15 → 859816ad70f8
4. 3Transformação
   ref_iv · dummies {"column":"dpto1","drop_first":true,"prefix":"dpto1"}

   3350 → 3350 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 859816ad70f8 → 3f5aa820095a
5. 4Turno do modelo
   call_9092ab32referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   IV2SLS.from_formula('elecc_presid2013 ~ 1 + C(dpto1) + controls + [ratio_treat ~ D2D30 + D2D40 + D2D50]'), clustered by loc, debiased

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "cluster": "loc",
       "dataset": "ref_iv",
       "endog": [
         "ratio_treat"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "elecc_presid2008",
         "db_elecc_presid2008",
         "dpto1_1.0"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "D2D30",
         "D2D40",
         "D2D50"
       ],
       "y": "elecc_presid2013"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
6. 5Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_27c4b42fdecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: IV2SLS.from_formula('elecc_presid2013 ~ 1 + C(dpto1) + controls + [ratio_treat ~ D2D30 + D2D40 + D2D50]'), clustered by loc, debiased

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": "loc",
     "dataset": "ref_iv",
     "endog": [
       "ratio_treat"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "elecc_presid2008",
       "db_elecc_presid2008",
       "dpto1_1.0"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "D2D30",
       "D2D40",
       "D2D50"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "elecc_presid2013"
   }

   Figuras call_27c4b42f

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.ratio_treat 2SLS effect of ratio_treat on elecc_presid2013	0,122226	0.12222625458373189	0,05494550.054945514449942626	0,0140692 – 0,230383

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.ratio_treat = 31,546731.546698921680957
   • partial_r2.ratio_treat = 0,5058890.5058889232757094
   • weak_instrument = false
   • overid_p = 0,7034930.7034932770440423
   • sargan = 0,7033940.7033939178279001
   • sargan_df = 22
   • n_obs = 3.3503350
   • se_type = "cluster"
   • n_clusters = 282282

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5919041867178659,
         "ci_low": 0.5296374342717435,
         "coef": 0.5607708104948047,
         "p": 9.846489096114015e-106,
         "se": 0.015816252026013576,
         "t": 35.45535374452077,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.40578392425275345,
         "ci_low": 0.34252358752170287,
         "coef": 0.37415375588722816,
         "p": 1.5254354615366937e-67,
         "se": 0.016068630363443435,
         "t": 23.284732265572426,
         "term": "elecc_presid2008"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.43104725653606085,
         "ci_low": -0.20198439322574807,
         "coef": 0.1145314316551564,
         "p": 0.4768812137467282,
         "se": 0.1607950907948696,
         "t": 0.7122818929917897,
         "term": "db_elecc_presid2008"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.006340202229793958,
         "ci_low": -0.06894418456462803,
         "coef": -0.037642193397211,
         "p": 0.01860347134290003,
         "se": 0.015901911108927573,
         "t": -2.3671490262625166,
         "term": "dpto1_1.0"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.2303833179844768,
         "ci_low": 0.014069191182986981,
         "coef": 0.12222625458373189,
         "p": 0.026909264043325335,
         "se": 0.054945514449942626,
         "t": 2.224499229961428,
         "term": "ratio_treat"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.3860876256180228,
         "ci_low": 0.2070896244898549,
         "coef": 0.29658862505393885,
         "endog": "ratio_treat",
         "instrument": "D2D30",
         "p": 3.1933026178806075e-10,
         "se": 0.04546692073663891,
         "t": 6.523173776642782
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5477509000220172,
         "ci_low": 0.23781439921905767,
         "coef": 0.39278264962053744,
         "endog": "ratio_treat",
         "instrument": "D2D40",
         "p": 0.0000010640045831431322,
         "se": 0.07872634457693856,
         "t": 4.989214877577282
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.3410488894563949,
         "ci_low": 0.15548132417248722,
         "coef": 0.24826510681444106,
         "endog": "ratio_treat",
         "instrument": "D2D50",
         "p": 2.7617198273300586e-7,
         "se": 0.04713564245900836,
         "t": 5.26703559902351
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.09797919382297911,
         "ci_low": -0.03700677380856664,
         "coef": 0.030486210007206235,
         "instrument": "D2D30",
         "p": 0.3746913253919222,
         "se": 0.034287513001150426,
         "t": 0.8891344789627452
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.11161891417730982,
         "ci_low": 0.008778805645178162,
         "coef": 0.06019885991124399,
         "instrument": "D2D40",
         "p": 0.021923318077279545,
         "se": 0.026122208257676263,
         "t": 2.304508842339314
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.06327733042982195,
         "ci_low": -0.04023224857159876,
         "coef": 0.011522540929111591,
         "instrument": "D2D50",
         "p": 0.6615429270858703,
         "se": 0.0262922590994222,
         "t": 0.4382484169785475
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ref_iv 3f5aa820095a6de8d532d9756f631b83c05fa51de40e41028ca3e91638bbd530

   sha256 do resultado

   1a86cbe02505e3e2fb11d5bf4e2a6b50a194ac9badae9973181d86ddad530c60

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
7. 6Turno do modelo
   call_8243696breferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.ratio_treat = 0,1222. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_27c4b42f:coef.ratio_treat"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
8. 7Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,1222

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
9. 8Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.ratio_treat = 0,1222. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_27c4b42f:coef.ratio_treat · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_27c4b42f:coef.ratio_treat = 0,1222260.12222625458373189 (se 0,05494550.054945514449942626)
10. 9Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
11. 10Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.1222262546 in [0.01453304626, 0.2299194629]?
12. 11Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.1222262546 vs 0.12222625458373049
13. 12Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.05494551445 vs 0.05494551444994459

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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