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Tarefa crb_papers.q070

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170050Z-suite-crb_papers-scripted-8b13b2

Veredito

passouPassou em todas as verificações obrigatórias.

Família do método (das chamadas de ferramentas): iv (two-stage least squares)

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of changes in bilateral trade volume with China (log_tot_trade) on a country's foreign-policy voting alignment (log_HRVOTE) at the country-year level?

Resposta

Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.log_tot_trade = 0,04562. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q070.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 70 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['70'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 70: effect 0.0456169, standard_error 0.0135175
Valor como publicado
0.045616922859221365
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.013517510987644091
Valor
0,04561690.045616922859221365 (se 0,01351750.013517510987644091)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: 0,04561690.045616922859221365 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.351751098764409e-8
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,01351750.013517510987644091 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.351751098764409e-8

crb_papers.q070.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 70
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/IV/Flores2013/question/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 593 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
a8f3d43d72974883f8480e047849ab9350fb93241798eadb6a2f00866df3d5b4 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/IV/Flores2013/question/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    0.04561692286 in [0.01912260132, 0.0721112444]?
    obrigatóriapassou[0.019122601323438945,0.07211124439500378]0,04561690.045616922859273795interval · [0.019122601323438945, 0.07211124439500378]—call_9f461d54
    2figura da resposta próxima
    0.04561692286 vs 0.045616922859221365
    registradapassou0,04561690.0456169228592213650,04561690.045616922859273795relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.351751098764409e-8crb_papers.q070.goldcall_9f461d54
    3figura da resposta próxima
    0.01351751099 vs 0.013517510987644091
    registradapassou0,01351750.0135175109876440910,01351750.013517510987653032relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.351751098764409e-8crb_papers.q070.goldcall_9f461d54

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.iv_2slsChamada do agente: infer.iv_2sls (call_9f461d54)igual
    Argumentos da referência e do agente
    ArgumentoReferênciaAgente
    cluster——não fixado pela referência
    dataset"ref_iv""ref_iv"igual
    endog["log_tot_trade"]["log_tot_trade"]igual
    exog["log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea_42.0","statea_51.0","statea_52.0","statea_70.0","statea_90.0","statea_91.0","statea_92.0","statea_93.0","statea_94.0","statea_95.0","statea_100.0","statea_101.0","statea_130.0","statea_135.0","statea_140.0","statea_145.0","statea_150.0","statea_155.0","statea_160.0","statea_165.0","statea_433.0","statea_434.0","statea_437.0","statea_452.0","statea_461.0","statea_471.0","statea_475.0","statea_481.0","statea_484.0","statea_490.0","statea_501.0","statea_510.0","statea_551.0","statea_560.0","statea_571.0","statea_600.0","statea_615.0","statea_616.0","statea_620.0","statea_625.0","statea_651.0"]["log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea_42.0","statea_51.0","statea_52.0","statea_70.0","statea_90.0","statea_91.0","statea_92.0","statea_93.0","statea_94.0","statea_95.0","statea_100.0","statea_101.0","statea_130.0","statea_135.0","statea_140.0","statea_145.0","statea_150.0","statea_155.0","statea_160.0","statea_165.0","statea_433.0","statea_434.0","statea_437.0","statea_452.0","statea_461.0","statea_471.0","statea_475.0","statea_481.0","statea_484.0","statea_490.0","statea_501.0","statea_510.0","statea_551.0","statea_560.0","statea_571.0","statea_600.0","statea_615.0","statea_616.0","statea_620.0","statea_625.0","statea_651.0"]igual
    instruments["lag_log_energ_prod"]["lag_log_energ_prod"]igual
    level—0,950.95não fixado pela referência
    se"HC1""HC1"igual
    subset——não fixado pela referência
    y"log_HRVOTE""log_HRVOTE"igual

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      What is the causal effect of changes in bilateral trade volume with China (log_tot_trade) on a country's foreign-policy voting alignment (log_HRVOTE) at the country-year level?

      ds_0040 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | |---------------|-------------| | (Unnamed) | Leading CSV observation index / row identifier imported with the file (simple sequential identifier for each row). | | statea | Numeric country identifier used to label each country observation in the panel (author/internal country code). | | log_HRVOTE | Natural logarithm of HRVOTE, a constructed measure of foreign-policy voting similarity/convergence (higher values indicate greater alignment as operationalized in the study). | | log_tot_trade | Natural logarithm of total bilateral trade (exports + imports) between China and the country in a given year (trade volume). | | statea_trade_gdp100 | Bilateral trade with China expressed as a percentage of the country’s GDP (scaled by 100). | | Joint_Dem_Dum | Binary indicator (0/1) denoting whether the dyad is jointly classified as democracies in that year (1 = both democracies, 0 = otherwise). | | log_cinc | Natural logarithm of the country’s Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) — a standard measure of material national capabilities. | | log_tot_ustrade | Natural logarithm of total bilateral trade between the country and the United States for the given year. | | us_aid100 | Amount of U.S. bilateral aid received by the country in that year, scaled by a factor of 100 (as provided in the replication dataset). | | dummy2004 | Indicator variable equal to 1 for observations from the year 2004 and 0 otherwise (year-specific flag). | | pts_score | Numeric PTS score included by the authors to capture a policy/preference-related index (operationalization and scale are described in the paper). | | lag_log_energ_prod | One-period lag of the natural logarithm of the country’s energy production (e.g., national oil/energy output in the prior year). | Data Description: This is a country-year panel assembled for the study period referenced in the paper (1992–2006) that combines bilateral economic statistics and country-level indicators for countries in Africa and Latin America. The dataset merges logged trade flows with measures derived from diplomatic behavior, state capability indices, trade shares relative to GDP, regime-type indicators, U.S. trade and aid flows, and lagged energy-production figures; many variables are log-transformed or scaled for comparability. Source material derives from standard international datasets and author-constructed series (trade statistics, capability indexes, voting/preference measures, aid records and national energy statistics), and the provided file has been pre-processed to a country-year format with the identifiers and derived variables noted above.

      file d34afa1c24ebcac28cef02b19848bdd6ce412bbdd7c128a423c1699b072c789c · frame —
      ref_iv (reference)
      file d34afa1c24ebcac28cef02b19848bdd6ce412bbdd7c128a423c1699b072c789c · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["log_HRVOTE","log_tot_trade","lag_log_energ_prod","log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea"]}
      2. dropna {"columns":["log_HRVOTE","log_tot_trade","lag_log_energ_prod","log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea"]}
      3. dummies {"column":"statea","drop_first":true,"prefix":"statea"}
    2. 1Transformação
      ref_iv · select {"columns":["log_HRVOTE","log_tot_trade","lag_log_energ_prod","log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea"]}
      1289 → 1289 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 17c907548f4d → 7208d361f79d
    3. 2Transformação
      ref_iv · dropna {"columns":["log_HRVOTE","log_tot_trade","lag_log_energ_prod","log_cinc","us_aid100","log_tot_ustrade","Joint_Dem_Dum","pts_score","dummy2004","statea"]}
      1289 → 592 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 7208d361f79d → 07f436ae385b
    4. 3Transformação
      ref_iv · dummies {"column":"statea","drop_first":true,"prefix":"statea"}
      592 → 592 linhas
      Frame antes → depois: 07f436ae385b → 72828640aa76
    5. 4Turno do modelo
      call_9bbeb41dreferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Texto visível

      IV2SLS.from_formula('log_HRVOTE ~ 1 + controls + C(statea) + [log_tot_trade ~ lag_log_energ_prod]').fit(cov_type='robust', debiased=True)

      Chamadas pedidas
      • infer.iv_2sls
        {
          "dataset": "ref_iv",
          "endog": [
            "log_tot_trade"
          ],
          "exog": [
            "log_cinc",
            "us_aid100",
            "log_tot_ustrade",
            "Joint_Dem_Dum",
            "pts_score",
            "dummy2004",
            "statea_42.0",
            "statea_51.0",
            "statea_52.0",
            "statea_70.0",
            "statea_90.0",
            "statea_91.0",
            "statea_92.0",
            "statea_93.0",
            "statea_94.0",
            "statea_95.0",
            "statea_100.0",
            "statea_101.0",
            "statea_130.0",
            "statea_135.0",
            "statea_140.0",
            "statea_145.0",
            "statea_150.0",
            "statea_155.0",
            "statea_160.0",
            "statea_165.0",
            "statea_433.0",
            "statea_434.0",
            "statea_437.0",
            "statea_452.0",
            "statea_461.0",
            "statea_471.0",
            "statea_475.0",
            "statea_481.0",
            "statea_484.0",
            "statea_490.0",
            "statea_501.0",
            "statea_510.0",
            "statea_551.0",
            "statea_560.0",
            "statea_571.0",
            "statea_600.0",
            "statea_615.0",
            "statea_616.0",
            "statea_620.0",
            "statea_625.0",
            "statea_651.0"
          ],
          "instruments": [
            "lag_log_energ_prod"
          ],
          "se": "HC1",
          "y": "log_HRVOTE"
        }
    6. 5Ferramenta
      infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_9f461d54decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

      Motivo: IV2SLS.from_formula('log_HRVOTE ~ 1 + controls + C(statea) + [log_tot_trade ~ lag_log_energ_prod]').fit(cov_type='robust', debiased=True)

      Argumentos
      {
        "cluster": null,
        "dataset": "ref_iv",
        "endog": [
          "log_tot_trade"
        ],
        "exog": [
          "log_cinc",
          "us_aid100",
          "log_tot_ustrade",
          "Joint_Dem_Dum",
          "pts_score",
          "dummy2004",
          "statea_42.0",
          "statea_51.0",
          "statea_52.0",
          "statea_70.0",
          "statea_90.0",
          "statea_91.0",
          "statea_92.0",
          "statea_93.0",
          "statea_94.0",
          "statea_95.0",
          "statea_100.0",
          "statea_101.0",
          "statea_130.0",
          "statea_135.0",
          "statea_140.0",
          "statea_145.0",
          "statea_150.0",
          "statea_155.0",
          "statea_160.0",
          "statea_165.0",
          "statea_433.0",
          "statea_434.0",
          "statea_437.0",
          "statea_452.0",
          "statea_461.0",
          "statea_471.0",
          "statea_475.0",
          "statea_481.0",
          "statea_484.0",
          "statea_490.0",
          "statea_501.0",
          "statea_510.0",
          "statea_551.0",
          "statea_560.0",
          "statea_571.0",
          "statea_600.0",
          "statea_615.0",
          "statea_616.0",
          "statea_620.0",
          "statea_625.0",
          "statea_651.0"
        ],
        "instruments": [
          "lag_log_energ_prod"
        ],
        "level": 0.95,
        "se": "HC1",
        "subset": null,
        "y": "log_HRVOTE"
      }
      Figuras call_9f461d54
      ChaveValorValor brutoErro-padrãoIC
      coef.log_tot_trade
      2SLS effect of log_tot_trade on log_HRVOTE
      0,0456169 0.0456169228592737950,01351750.0135175109876530320,0190639 – 0,0721699
      Diagnósticos
      • first_stage_F.log_tot_trade = 53,634553.634486350653276
      • partial_r2.log_tot_trade = 0,1085420.10854170914830286
      • weak_instrument = false
      • n_obs = 592592
      • se_type = "HC1"
      • n_clusters = —
      Tabelas (3)
      {
        "coefficients": [
          {
            "ci_high": 3.25663754005968,
            "ci_low": 1.0134507559232484,
            "coef": 2.135044147991464,
            "p": 0.00020414022951601186,
            "se": 0.5709765231718587,
            "t": 3.7392853494763316,
            "term": "Intercept"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.3789852250864388,
            "ci_low": 0.10825007199738657,
            "coef": 0.24361764854191267,
            "p": 0.00044229152034591245,
            "se": 0.06891241402828543,
            "t": 3.5351779788459976,
            "term": "log_cinc"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.005031967250645482,
            "ci_low": -0.04420570430936984,
            "coef": -0.02461883578000766,
            "p": 0.013856111161234898,
            "se": 0.00997120897092386,
            "t": -2.468992060220222,
            "term": "us_aid100"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.038307067662934124,
            "ci_low": -0.02385187435696464,
            "coef": 0.007227596652984742,
            "p": 0.647988879489743,
            "se": 0.01582181958700607,
            "t": 0.456811974958969,
            "term": "log_tot_ustrade"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.10324538394925944,
            "ci_low": 0.0015864239864053081,
            "coef": 0.05241590396783238,
            "p": 0.0432891193155605,
            "se": 0.02587607947735097,
            "t": 2.0256509110551852,
            "term": "Joint_Dem_Dum"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.013503886613013128,
            "ci_low": -0.024832385116798625,
            "coef": -0.005664249251892748,
            "p": 0.5618386220259826,
            "se": 0.009758042129374558,
            "t": -0.5804698500779888,
            "term": "pts_score"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.10333162513583508,
            "ci_low": -0.21225946025963108,
            "coef": -0.15779554269773308,
            "p": 2.065927622532759e-8,
            "se": 0.02772628521862751,
            "t": -5.691189477908147,
            "term": "dummy2004"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.22626610249561907,
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            "coef": -0.40856388118268316,
            "p": 0.000012892745005778966,
            "se": 0.09280346388699316,
            "t": -4.4024637020035335,
            "term": "statea_42.0"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": 0.3218200600361294,
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            "coef": 0.17203549109425695,
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            "term": "statea_51.0"
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          {
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            "se": 0.06177531522147401,
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          {
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          {
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            "se": 0.08930097627533641,
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          {
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            "t": -4.322377230818117,
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          {
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          {
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            "se": 0.18910582888640617,
            "t": -3.803878223540451,
            "term": "statea_100.0"
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          {
            "ci_high": -0.2780799900368299,
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            "p": 0.0006161232783641463,
            "se": 0.1878608039150441,
            "t": -3.4445872602818612,
            "term": "statea_101.0"
          },
          {
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            "se": 0.11715331240608212,
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          {
            "ci_high": -0.4820111011192338,
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            "coef": -0.8082541204743737,
            "p": 0.0000014903557493498827,
            "se": 0.16608256273424776,
            "t": -4.866580254831919,
            "term": "statea_135.0"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.7888319228774087,
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            "coef": -1.3770991692380217,
            "p": 0.000005301886331951574,
            "se": 0.29947286547711516,
            "t": -4.598410500544182,
            "term": "statea_140.0"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.17070011775902427,
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            "coef": -0.3354453034700275,
            "p": 0.00007221510907000465,
            "se": 0.08386785622293473,
            "t": -3.999688540724804,
            "term": "statea_145.0"
          },
          {
            "ci_high": -0.1456263214997612,
            "ci_low": -0.467238014705351,
            "coef": -0.3064321681025561,
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          {
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          {
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          {
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            "term": "log_tot_trade"
          }
        ],
        "first_stage": [
          {
            "ci_high": 3.018707170578274,
            "ci_low": 1.741825443176358,
            "coef": 2.380266306877316,
            "endog": "log_tot_trade",
            "instrument": "lag_log_energ_prod",
            "p": 8.771697812785815e-13,
            "se": 0.3250150608810296,
            "t": 7.323556946638244
          }
        ],
        "reduced_form": [
          {
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            "p": 0.0003327521751957382,
            "se": 0.030065793903798602,
            "t": 3.611427153820608
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        ]
      }
      Digests dos dados
      ref_iv 72828640aa7626c8941ad7adb251f7f93eb648eb1a63b64f6d87c9c0611b44b5
      sha256 do resultado
      dbf3279843177349171a47676f21acc2899780d1e0dc8619cc5ab027f86e41a5
    7. 6Turno do modelo
      call_04cc65a7referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.log_tot_trade = 0,04562. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": [
            "call_9f461d54:coef.log_tot_trade"
          ]
        }
    8. 7Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      0,04562
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    9. 8Resposta

      Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.log_tot_trade = 0,04562. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

      Figuras citadas: call_9f461d54:coef.log_tot_trade · Parada: answered
      Figura da resposta: call_9f461d54:coef.log_tot_trade = 0,04561690.045616922859273795 (se 0,01351750.013517510987653032)
    10. 9Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    11. 10Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.04561692286 in [0.01912260132, 0.0721112444]?
    12. 11Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.04561692286 vs 0.045616922859221365
    13. 12Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.01351751099 vs 0.013517510987644091

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