Tarefa crb_papers.q073

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of having municipal direct-democracy institutions (versus representative councils) on women's parliamentary turnout, estimated for municipalities whose institutional status was marginally determined by the 1918 municipal reform?

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Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect of having municipal direct-democracy institutions (versus representative councils) on women's parliamentary turnout, estimated for municipalities whose institutional status was marginally determined by the 1918 municipal reform?

   ds_0043 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | (Unnamed) | Unlabeled column from the original data export (often an empty field or row index placeholder). | | direct | Municipality institutional type indicator for the given observation year: 1 = direct-democracy town meeting as the highest local decision-making body; 0 = representative municipal council. | | area1918 | Municipality land area circa 1918 (units as recorded in historical registers). | | nr_poor_relief1917 | Number of individuals receiving poor relief in 1917 in the municipality (count). | | shareagri1917 | Share of local workforce/economic activity in agriculture in 1917 (proportion). | | taxbase1918 | Municipal tax base in 1918 (monetary taxable-capacity measure as recorded in historical accounts; units as in source). | | year | Observation year (parliamentary election year) for turnout and vote-based variables (e.g., 1921, 1924, 1928, …, 1944). | | wm_voters | Number of eligible female voters in the municipality for the election year `year` (count). | | m_turnout | Men’s turnout in parliamentary elections in `year` (percent, 0–100): (number of male votes cast ÷ number of eligible male voters) × 100. | | wm_turnout | Women’s turnout in parliamentary elections in `year` (percent, 0–100): (number of female votes cast ÷ number of eligible female voters) × 100. | | wv_share | Share of total votes cast that were cast by women in `year` (percent, 0–100): (female votes cast ÷ total votes cast) × 100. | | left | Support for leftist parties in the municipality in `year` (vote share; coding as in source, typically a proportion). | | enep | Effective number of electoral parties in the municipality in `year` (Laakso–Taagepera index computed from party vote shares). | | municipality | Municipality identifier (name or code as provided in the source data). | | county | County identifier (name or code as provided in the source data). | | population | Municipality population size (number of inhabitants) measured in the year *prior* to the election/observation year: Population\_{t−1} for election year t = `year`. This is the population figure used in the statutory 1,500-person benchmark in contemporaneous municipal governance rules. | | over1500 | Indicator based on `population` (i.e., Population\_{t−1} relative to 1,500): 1 if `population` > 1,500; 0 otherwise. | | nr_organized | Number of organized local associations/organizations in the municipality (count from historical records; year as recorded in source). | | zeropop | Distance of lagged population from the 1,500-person benchmark: `population` − 1500, where `population` is Population\_{t−1} for election year t = `year`. | | c_m | Unclear/undocumented field carried over from the source file (may be empty or auxiliary). | | new | Indicator for being below the 1,500-person benchmark based on `population` (i.e., Population\_{t−1}): 1 if `zeropop` < 0 (equivalently, `population` < 1,500); 0 otherwise. | Dataset Context: This dataset is a municipality × election-year panel covering Swedish municipalities in the early decades after the introduction of universal suffrage, with election-year observations spanning 1921–1944. It combines historical municipal administrative and demographic measures (e.g., population, land area, tax base, poor relief counts, agriculture share, number of local organizations) with parliamentary electoral statistics disaggregated by gender (numbers of eligible voters and turnout measures for men and women, and women’s share of total votes), as well as local political context indicators (e.g., left-party support and party-system fragmentation). Several variables encode municipality population relative to a 1,500-person benchmark used in contemporaneous municipal governance statutes. In this panel setting, the population measure used for the benchmark is recorded as the population in the year preceding the election/observation year (Population\_{t−1} relative to election year t), and the derived threshold/distance indicators are computed from that same lagged population. The data were assembled from Swedish national electoral statistics and historical municipal registers/census and fiscal records; year-suffixed variables denote the historical measurement year (e.g., area1918, taxbase1918).

   file df43b8c482e8aabc4ea5bbac74e9748f76d0487bdf0307c9106b7c1ebe91fee1 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file df43b8c482e8aabc4ea5bbac74e9748f76d0487bdf0307c9106b7c1ebe91fee1 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]}
   3. dummies {"column":"year","drop_first":true,"prefix":"year"}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_iv · select {"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]}

   2750 → 2750 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 60daee4b992c → e1346743ef28
3. 2Transformação
   ref_iv · dropna {"columns":["wm_turnout","direct","new","year","left","wm_voters","enep"]}

   2750 → 2749 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: e1346743ef28 → cbf3885c5f36
4. 3Transformação
   ref_iv · dummies {"column":"year","drop_first":true,"prefix":"year"}

   2749 → 2749 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: cbf3885c5f36 → 66f954b4feb6
5. 4Turno do modelo
   call_09d5cf98referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   IV2SLS.from_formula('wm_turnout ~ 1 + left + wm_voters + enep + C(year) + [direct ~ new]').fit(cov_type='robust', debiased=True)

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "ref_iv",
       "endog": [
         "direct"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "left",
         "wm_voters",
         "enep",
         "year_1924",
         "year_1928",
         "year_1932",
         "year_1936",
         "year_1940",
         "year_1944"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "new"
       ],
       "se": "HC1",
       "y": "wm_turnout"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
6. 5Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_6108d7b1decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: IV2SLS.from_formula('wm_turnout ~ 1 + left + wm_voters + enep + C(year) + [direct ~ new]').fit(cov_type='robust', debiased=True)

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "ref_iv",
     "endog": [
       "direct"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "left",
       "wm_voters",
       "enep",
       "year_1924",
       "year_1928",
       "year_1932",
       "year_1936",
       "year_1940",
       "year_1944"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "new"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "wm_turnout"
   }

   Figuras call_6108d7b1

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.direct 2SLS effect of direct on wm_turnout	3,92866	3.928662717450435	1,085511.0855141453627477	1,80015 – 6,05717

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.direct = 914,646914.6461459884626
   • partial_r2.direct = 0,2689580.26895787769146506
   • weak_instrument = false
   • n_obs = 2.7492749
   • se_type = "HC1"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 46.54703449035294,
         "ci_low": 36.5469279597355,
         "coef": 41.54698122504422,
         "p": 4.88797192616156e-57,
         "se": 2.549966728886183,
         "t": 16.29314639849901,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 18.312132674288733,
         "ci_low": 13.26473188383231,
         "coef": 15.788432279060522,
         "p": 1.027276058000391e-33,
         "se": 1.2870566972073059,
         "t": 12.26708373711798,
         "term": "left"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.020274695279438967,
         "ci_low": 0.004352619518639465,
         "coef": 0.012313657399039217,
         "p": 0.00244491763825996,
         "se": 0.0040600330927011655,
         "t": 3.0328958207694963,
         "term": "wm_voters"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -2.4324308841043187,
         "ci_low": -3.813207118123529,
         "coef": -3.122819001113924,
         "p": 1.2986367198713285e-18,
         "se": 0.35208959484638114,
         "t": -8.869387357148197,
         "term": "enep"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.04425236355233175,
         "ci_low": -3.2112025486135876,
         "coef": -1.6277274560829595,
         "p": 0.04393632222186286,
         "se": 0.8075531574809651,
         "t": -2.015628867281504,
         "term": "year_1924"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 16.669324592624296,
         "ci_low": 13.543532919918356,
         "coef": 15.106428756271326,
         "p": 2.2808379948900315e-75,
         "se": 0.7970579855750294,
         "t": 18.95273496993189,
         "term": "year_1928"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 16.478637755876797,
         "ci_low": 13.239001695349456,
         "coef": 14.858819725613127,
         "p": 1.845644472754995e-68,
         "se": 0.8260876164420777,
         "t": 17.986977930512257,
         "term": "year_1932"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 24.436618651559264,
         "ci_low": 21.477717071357183,
         "coef": 22.957167861458224,
         "p": 2.0216490573896478e-175,
         "se": 0.7545020205997941,
         "t": 30.426913692303092,
         "term": "year_1936"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 19.07101216624259,
         "ci_low": 15.978721488144764,
         "coef": 17.524866827193676,
         "p": 9.511085110480157e-101,
         "se": 0.788515434415825,
         "t": 22.22514114790543,
         "term": "year_1940"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 21.20519087687945,
         "ci_low": 18.13594643676747,
         "coef": 19.67056865682346,
         "p": 1.3181416849010784e-125,
         "se": 0.7826387830111657,
         "t": 25.13364924383363,
         "term": "year_1944"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 6.057172272330231,
         "ci_low": 1.80015316257064,
         "coef": 3.928662717450435,
         "p": 0.0003008986817029755,
         "se": 1.0855141453627477,
         "t": 3.619172291981132,
         "term": "direct"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5282628805210374,
         "ci_low": 0.46393324519676044,
         "coef": 0.49609806285889896,
         "endog": "direct",
         "instrument": "new",
         "p": 1.3181530570393921e-173,
         "se": 0.016403668226538316,
         "t": 30.243117332518196
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 2.960736992176207,
         "ci_low": 0.937266935330072,
         "coef": 1.9490019637531393,
         "instrument": "new",
         "p": 0.0001618895049192856,
         "se": 0.515972635497163,
         "t": 3.7773359082796856
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ref_iv 66f954b4feb6f56a868d2459329d40535d7c670409cf3314492f0cc3cba4e08f

   sha256 do resultado

   d077d48092bc5369f79912c7f5ff25a2fd593ac73d54063acb0edb703c3419ac

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
7. 6Turno do modelo
   call_587a6513referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.direct = 3,929. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_6108d7b1:coef.direct"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
8. 7Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   3,929

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
9. 8Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.direct = 3,929. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_6108d7b1:coef.direct · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_6108d7b1:coef.direct = 3,928663.928662717450435 (se 1,085511.0855141453627477)
10. 9Pontuação
    #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
11. 10Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória3.928662717 in [1.801054993, 6.056270442]?
12. 11Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada3.928662717 vs 3.9286627174509476
13. 12Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada1.085514145 vs 1.0855141453627462

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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