Tarefa crb_papers.q078

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect (local average treatment effect among counties affected by the source of exogenous local variation used in the study) of a one-percentage-point increase in the county-level Democratic gubernatorial vote share on the county-level Democratic down-ballot statewide vote share?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect (local average treatment effect among counties affected by the source of exogenous local variation used in the study) of a one-percentage-point increase in the county-level Democratic gubernatorial vote share on the county-level Democratic down-ballot statewide vote share?

   ds_0048 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |--------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | row_index | Row identifier from the CSV (simple integer index for each observation). | | fips | Numeric FIPS code for the U.S. county (standard county-level geographic identifier). | | DemShareDB_res | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the selected down-ballot statewide race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis). | | DemShareGOV_res | Residualized two-party Democratic vote share in the gubernatorial race for the county (processed/demeaned for analysis). | | HomeGOV_res | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the gubernatorial candidate’s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). | | HomeDB_res | Processed (residualized/demeaned) county-level measure capturing the selected down-ballot candidate’s geographic proximity/home-county status (based on birthplace/residence, prepared for analysis). | Data Description: This dataset contains county-level observations constructed for analyses of statewide executive elections in the United States (county × election instances). County identifiers (fips) link each row to a specific U.S. county; the dataset includes processed vote-share measures for a selected down-ballot statewide race and the concurrent gubernatorial race, and analytic indicators (expressed here in residualized form) that summarize whether a candidate was born in or resides near the county. The original returns and candidate biographical information were drawn from official election offices, archival sources, and biographical repositories; the provided variables have been transformed (e.g., demeaning/residualization) to match the preprocessing used in the replication code.

   file e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file e16f727800431879890b0cf6ae629dc85efa23fb8f083bc48123d4c3ffa57082 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_iv · select {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}

   14656 → 14656 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: d907be837237 → 4516132fef0a
3. 2Transformação
   ref_iv · dropna {"columns":["DemShareDB_res","DemShareGOV_res","HomeGOV_res","HomeDB_res","fips"]}

   14656 → 14550 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 4516132fef0a → b530b4225ca4
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_8be4c91areferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "cluster": "fips",
       "dataset": "ref_iv",
       "endog": [
         "DemShareGOV_res"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "HomeDB_res"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "HomeGOV_res"
       ],
       "y": "DemShareDB_res"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_2af12a74decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: IV2SLS.from_formula('DemShareDB_res ~ HomeDB_res + [DemShareGOV_res ~ HomeGOV_res]'), clustered by fips; the columns are residualised, so the tool's constant is zero and the fit equals the script's no-constant model

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": "fips",
     "dataset": "ref_iv",
     "endog": [
       "DemShareGOV_res"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "HomeDB_res"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "HomeGOV_res"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "DemShareDB_res"
   }

   Figuras call_2af12a74

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.DemShareGOV_res 2SLS effect of DemShareGOV_res on DemShareDB_res	0,163434	0.1634338849109275	0,07118480.07118477178041364	0,0238528 – 0,303015

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.DemShareGOV_res = 77,295377.29526456918744
   • partial_r2.DemShareGOV_res = 0,01921290.019212905950528714
   • weak_instrument = false
   • n_obs = 14.55014550
   • se_type = "cluster"
   • n_clusters = 2.7502750

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 2.714451201025359e-12,
         "ci_low": -2.7107223261061127e-12,
         "coef": 1.864437459623134e-15,
         "p": 0.9989247635842735,
         "se": 1.3833889100637665e-12,
         "t": 0.0013477319689784082,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.051949840546279075,
         "ci_low": 0.033914327429788324,
         "coef": 0.0429320839880337,
         "p": 2.013857840056198e-20,
         "se": 0.004598954984183727,
         "t": 9.335182478559041,
         "term": "HomeDB_res"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.30301492990433954,
         "ci_low": 0.023852839917515495,
         "coef": 0.1634338849109275,
         "p": 0.02175590526641289,
         "se": 0.07118477178041364,
         "t": 2.295910780118509,
         "term": "DemShareGOV_res"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.046353742769718195,
         "ci_low": 0.02944775051539469,
         "coef": 0.037900746642556445,
         "endog": "DemShareGOV_res",
         "instrument": "HomeGOV_res",
         "p": 2.54440021423836e-18,
         "se": 0.004310933480983254,
         "t": 8.7917725499007
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.011849953679797262,
         "ci_low": 0.000538578849838333,
         "coef": 0.006194266264817797,
         "instrument": "HomeGOV_res",
         "p": 0.031836492221555164,
         "se": 0.002884337324711051,
         "t": 2.1475526498754203
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ref_iv b530b4225ca461b37bf690882169fb1c53945e733baeee40a87f77954572322b

   sha256 do resultado

   9d5ba87b9849878525f7a0d08d8c3afed9d6e1d2c360fb488c398987a948d1aa

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
6. 5Turno do modelo
   call_48c44307referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.DemShareGOV_res = 0,1634. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_2af12a74:coef.DemShareGOV_res"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
7. 6Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,1634

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
8. 7Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.DemShareGOV_res = 0,1634. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_2af12a74:coef.DemShareGOV_res · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_2af12a74:coef.DemShareGOV_res = 0,1634340.1634338849109275 (se 0,07118480.07118477178041364)
9. 8Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
10. 9Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.1634338849 in [0.02394669059, 0.3029210792]?
11. 10Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.1634338849 vs 0.16343388491092745
12. 11Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.07118477178 vs 0.07116693587890967

Épocas × verificações

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Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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