Tarefa crb_papers.q085

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

Among federal deputy candidates in very close races, what is the effect of being elected versus not elected on the subsequent log average value of direct federal government contracts received by their corporate donor firms during 2008-2010?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   Among federal deputy candidates in very close races, what is the effect of being elected versus not elected on the subsequent log average value of direct federal government contracts received by their corporate donor firms during 2008-2010?

   ds_0054 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Unnamed: 0 | Row index from the source file | | depfed.id | Candidate identifier (year–state–code) for the 2006 federal deputy election | | uf | State (UF) abbreviation | | party | Candidate’s party abbreviation | | rank | Candidate’s intra-coalition rank by personal votes | | coal | Party/coalition label on the ballot in the state | | coalseats | Number of seats won by the coalition in the state | | name | Candidate’s full name | | elected | Indicator for whether the candidate took office at the start of the term (1=yes, 0=no) | | votes | Candidate’s total personal (nominal) votes | | votemargin | Raw vote difference to the relevant intra-coalition cutoff (votes vs last winner/first loser) | | margin.coalvote | Vote margin expressed as a share of coalition votes | | margin.nomvote | Vote margin expressed as a share of nominal votes in the state | | infl.vote.margin | “Inflated” vote margin measure adjusting for district magnitude differences | | suplencia.days | Days served as a substitute (suplente) during the term | | licenca.days | Days on leave (licença) for a seated deputy during the term | | donations | Total registered corporate donations received in 2006 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.2004 | Direct federal payments to the candidate’s donor firms in 2004 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.2005 | Direct federal payments to the candidate’s donor firms in 2005 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.2006 | Direct federal payments to the candidate’s donor firms in 2006 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.2007 | Direct federal payments to the candidate’s donor firms in 2007 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.2008 | Direct federal payments to the candidate’s donor firms in 2008 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.2009 | Direct federal payments to the candidate’s donor firms in 2009 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.2010 | Direct federal payments to the candidate’s donor firms in 2010 (reais, 2006 prices) | | agriculture | - | | num.contracts08 | Number of direct federal contracts to the candidate’s donor firms in 2008 | | num.contracts09 | Number of direct federal contracts to the candidate’s donor firms in 2009 | | num.contracts10 | Number of direct federal contracts to the candidate’s donor firms in 2010 | | pw.donations | Total donations from public-works sector firms (construction, water/sewage, energy) in 2006 (reais) | | pw.contracts.2004 | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2004 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.contracts.2005 | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2005 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.contracts.2006 | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2006 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.contracts.2007 | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2007 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.contracts.2008 | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2008 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.contracts.2009 | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2009 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.contracts.2010 | Direct federal payments to public-works donor firms in 2010 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.agriculture | - | | pw.num.contracts08 | Number of direct federal contracts to public-works donor firms in 2008 | | pw.num.contracts09 | Number of direct federal contracts to public-works donor firms in 2009 | | pw.num.contracts10 | Number of direct federal contracts to public-works donor firms in 2010 | | contracts.0406 | Sum of direct federal payments to donor firms, 2004–2006 (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.0810 | Sum of direct federal payments to donor firms, 2008–2010 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.con.0810 | Sum of direct federal payments to public-works donor firms, 2008–2010 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.con.0406 | Sum of direct federal payments to public-works donor firms, 2004–2006 (reais, 2006 prices) | | donor.firms | Number of corporate donor firms contributing to the candidate in 2006 | | pw.donor.firms | Number of donor firms in public-works industries contributing to the candidate in 2006 | | nondonors.contracts | - | | nondonors.pwcontracts | - | | donoronly02.contracts0810 | - | | donoronly02.pw.con.0810 | - | | voters | Number of registered voters in the candidate’s state (2006) | | contracts.PTmin.0810 | Payments to donor firms, 2008–2010, from ministries headed by PT (reais, 2006 prices) | | pwcontracts.PTmin.0810 | Payments to public-works donor firms, 2008–2010, from ministries headed by PT (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.coalmin.0810 | Payments to donor firms, 2008–2010, from ministries headed by coalition partners (reais, 2006 prices) | | pwcontracts.coalmin.0810 | Payments to public-works donor firms, 2008–2010, from ministries headed by coalition partners (reais, 2006 prices) | | contracts.dnit.0810 | Payments to donor firms from DNIT (National Department of Transportation Infrastructure), 2008–2010 (reais) | | donations.dnit | Total registered donations from firms that received DNIT payments (reais, 2006 prices) | | pwcontracts.dnit.0810 | Payments to public-works donor firms from DNIT, 2008–2010 (reais, 2006 prices) | | pw.donations.dnit | Total registered donations from public-works firms that received DNIT payments (reais, 2006 prices) | | donorfirms.dnit | Number of donor firms that received DNIT payments, 2008–2010 | | pw.donorfirms.dnit | Number of public-works donor firms that received DNIT payments, 2008–2010 | | uf_coal | Combined state–coalition identifier | | rank_discont | Distance between candidate’s rank and the coalition’s seat cutoff (negative=below cutoff) | | outcome_var | Log of the average 2008–2010 direct federal payments per donor firm (reais, +1) | Data Description: This file contains candidate-level data for Brazil’s 2006 Chamber of Deputies election linked to firm-level government payment records. Candidate and donation information were taken from the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), including party/coalition labels, personal votes, intra-coalition rank, and officially registered corporate donations. Donor firms were matched to the Ministry of Finance registry (CNPJ and CNAE) to classify industries, with a focus on public-works activities (construction, water/sewage, and energy). Direct federal payments to firms were extracted from the Office of the Comptroller General’s Transparência portal and aggregated to the candidate level by donor list for 2004–2010 (values converted to 2006 reais). The dataset summarizes totals and counts for all donor firms and for the public-works subset, provides windows for 2004–2006 and 2008–2010, and includes tags for payments executed by DNIT and by ministries led by PT or coalition partners. Additional fields capture electorate size by state and service days as substitute or on leave for seated deputies. This structure allows analysts to study patterns of campaign financing and federal contracting around the 2006 election.

   file 450c6ff9e09834c7d350151eb396b90989d7d986192e55378095f0bfeb37a5a8 · frame —

   ref_rd (reference)

   file 450c6ff9e09834c7d350151eb396b90989d7d986192e55378095f0bfeb37a5a8 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_rd · select {"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]}

   1504 → 1504 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 576276515be0 → 9db19a468016
3. 2Transformação
   ref_rd · dropna {"columns":["outcome_var","votemargin"]}

   1504 → 1504 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 9db19a468016 → 9db19a468016
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_bf4c4081referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   rdrobust(y, x, c=0.0, h=25000, p=1): the conventional local-linear estimate (coef row 1)

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.rdd

     {
       "bandwidth": 25000,
       "cutoff": 0,
       "dataset": "ref_rd",
       "kernel": "triangular",
       "polynomial": 1,
       "running": "votemargin",
       "y": "outcome_var"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Ferramenta
   infer.rddv0.1.0call_cb2476d1decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: rdrobust(y, x, c=0.0, h=25000, p=1): the conventional local-linear estimate (coef row 1)

   Argumentos

   {
     "bandwidth": 25000,
     "cluster": null,
     "cutoff": 0,
     "dataset": "ref_rd",
     "kernel": "triangular",
     "level": 0.95,
     "polynomial": 1,
     "running": "votemargin",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "outcome_var"
   }

   Figuras call_cb2476d1

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   effect Jump in outcome_var at the cutoff of votemargin	2,19351	2.193507668036064	1,221921.2219220047382846	-0,201415 – 4,58843

   Diagnósticos

   • bandwidth = 25.00025000
   • bandwidth_method = "user"
   • n_left = 276276
   • n_right = 187187
   • kernel = "triangular"
   • polynomial = 11
   • bandwidth_sensitive = false
   • n_obs = 1.5041504
   • se_type = "HC1"

   Tabelas (1)

   {
     "sensitivity": [
       {
         "bandwidth": 12500,
         "ci_high": 4.680619170624598,
         "ci_low": -1.8676847398363794,
         "estimate": 1.4064672153941093,
         "multiplier": 0.5,
         "n_left": 158,
         "n_right": 110,
         "se": 1.6705163875747624
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 25000,
         "ci_high": 4.588430789240084,
         "ci_low": -0.20141545316795506,
         "estimate": 2.193507668036064,
         "multiplier": 1,
         "n_left": 276,
         "n_right": 187,
         "se": 1.2219220047382846
       },
       {
         "bandwidth": 50000,
         "ci_high": 3.4252360076382895,
         "ci_low": -0.0868493290860779,
         "estimate": 1.6691933392761058,
         "multiplier": 2,
         "n_left": 574,
         "n_right": 282,
         "se": 0.8959566003322634
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ref_rd 9db19a4680161ee84d0fef905ffac6e04d5f6c4708171e9e636cd93fddb47da6

   sha256 do resultado

   c343dd040cf6e1d71467592ca1fd824248b141874899bc334378a7c97e2ffbd3

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
6. 5Turno do modelo
   call_07b0d4bareferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 2,194. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_cb2476d1:effect"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
7. 6Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   2,194

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
8. 7Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.rdd): effect = 2,194. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_cb2476d1:effect · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_cb2476d1:effect = 2,193512.193507668036064 (se 1,221921.2219220047382846)
9. 8Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
10. 9Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória2.193507668 in [-0.03811072481, 4.425126061]?
11. 10Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada2.193507668 vs 2.193507668036073
12. 11Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada1.221922005 vs 1.138580812675392

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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