Tarefa crb_papers.q077

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the causal effect of closely reading/opening the esteem-promising email on the probability of RSVPing 'yes' to the event among recipients whose opening behavior was responsive to the email variant they received?

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the causal effect of closely reading/opening the esteem-promising email on the probability of RSVPing 'yes' to the event among recipients whose opening behavior was responsive to the email variant they received?

   ds_0047 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |----------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | opened | Email-platform indicator of the recorded image-display action used as a proxy for closely reading the assigned invitation: 1 if recorded, 0 otherwise. Absence of a recorded action does not establish that the email was unread. | | attended | Recorded event participation: 1 if the recipient collected a raffle ticket at the event entrance using the invitation's code; 0 otherwise. Names/email addresses and hand stamps supported attendance recording and prevented duplicate collection. | | intended | Recorded intention to participate: 1 for an Evite RSVP of "yes"; 0 otherwise, including recipients without a "yes" RSVP. | | esteem | Pooled recognition-message assignment: 1 for either the newsletter or Facebook invitation, 0 for the information-only invitation; equals newsletter + facebook for records with assignment data. | | female | Pre-experiment female indicator inferred from subscriber information/email addresses (1/0). | | newsletter | Assignment to the invitation offering to list attendees' names in the organization's newsletter so other members could celebrate their participation (1/0). | | facebook | Assignment to the invitation encouraging attendees to post event photos on the organization's Facebook page for other members to "like" (1/0). | | openednewsletter | Recorded image-display action for a newsletter-assigned recipient; equals opened × newsletter for records with assignment data. | | openedfacebook | Recorded image-display action for a Facebook-assigned recipient; equals opened × facebook for records with assignment data. | | openedesteem | Recorded image-display action for a recipient assigned either recognition-message variant; equals opened × esteem, or openednewsletter + openedfacebook, for records with assignment data. | | control | Same information-only assignment indicator as information. | | information | Assignment to the information-only invitation containing the event's purpose and logistics without the additional promise of public recognition (1/0). | | fivemiles | Indicator for residing within five miles of the event location | | yearshpccpreexp | Number of years affiliated with the cooperating organization (duration of membership/engagement, in years) | | fiveyears | - | | fouryears | - | | surveyrespondent | Indicator for responding to the post-event (follow-up) survey | | reported_attended | Self-reported attendance on the post-event survey | | previous_attend | Indicator for prior attendance at a coordinating organization pride event | | groupwarmth | Survey-scale measure of perceived warmth/trust toward the organization or group (self-reported) | | received_email | Email-receipt response recorded for post-event survey respondents (1/0); not the full-sample email-platform delivery log. | | used_website | Indicator for using the organization's website to obtain information about the event | | received_other_email | Indicator for having received forwarded or other organizations' emails about the event | | printedmaterial | Indicator for learning about the event via printed materials | | wordofmouth | Indicator for learning about the event via word-of-mouth | | forwarded_hpcc | - | | otherlgbt_org | Indicator for involvement in other LGBT organizations | | sports_team | Indicator for membership/involvement with a sports team (organizational affiliation) | | professional_org | Indicator for membership in a professional organization | | dramaclub | Indicator for membership in a drama/theater club | | religious_group | Indicator for membership or affiliation with a religious group | | school_board | Indicator for involvement with a school board or similar civic body | | nonprofit | Indicator for involvement with a nonprofit organization | | otherorg_none | Indicator for reporting none of the listed organizational affiliations | | attended_meeting | Indicator for past attendance at community or organizational meetings | | attended_protest | Indicator for past attendance at protests | | complained_govt | Indicator for having complained to government officials (past civic action) | | signed_petition | Indicator for having signed petitions (past civic action) | | wrote_letter | Indicator for having written letters to officials (past civic action) | | financial_donation | Indicator for having made financial donations (past civic action) | | vote_08 | Indicator for voting in the 2008 election | | vote_09 | Indicator for voting in the 2009 election | | vote_10 | Indicator for voting in the 2010 election | | party | Party identification (coded categorical variable) | | politicalinterest | Self-reported level of interest in politics (survey scale) | | age | Respondent age in years | | young | Indicator for belonging to a younger age cohort (study-specific cutoff) | | education | Education level (coded categorical or ordinal) | | transgendered | Indicator for respondent identifying as transgender | | retired | Indicator for respondent reporting retired status | | military | Indicator for prior or current military service | | race | Race/ethnicity coded variable | | unemployed | Indicator for reporting unemployed status | | njresident | Indicator for residing in New Jersey | | forleadership | Self-reported reason: attended to pursue or signal interest in a leadership position | | forimportant | Self-reported reason: attended because it was an important event for the organizing group | | foradmiration | Self-reported reason: attended because community members would think highly of attendees (esteem-related reason) | | forcause | Self-reported reason: attended to support a cause they care about | | forsocial | Self-reported reason: attended for social reasons (camaraderie, meeting people) | | fortime | Self-reported reason: attended because timing/location made it easy to attend | | forfun | Self-reported reason: attended to have fun | | democrat | Indicator for identifying as or leaning toward the Democratic party | Data Description: The observations concern individual email-list subscribers of an LGBT advocacy and support organization in New Jersey around a rally and march in October 2011. After duplicate addresses and entries associated with businesses or organizations were removed, 3,651 individual email addresses were randomly assigned across three invitation variants. Invitations were sent one week before the event. Four undeliverable addresses were excluded, leaving 3,647 recipients with assignment and behavioral records: 1,217 in the newsletter variant, 1,213 in the Facebook variant, and 1,217 in the information-only variant. All variants supplied the event's purpose, timing, and location. The newsletter variant additionally promised public recognition by listing attendees' names in an organizational newsletter. The Facebook variant invited attendees to post event photos that other group members could "like." These two variants are pooled by esteem. Recipients in all three groups were also offered raffle tickets at the event entrance using a code in their invitation and were asked to RSVP through a corresponding Evite page. Email-platform logs recorded an image-display action used as a proxy for closely reading an invitation. It is an imperfect measure: email-client settings and text-only viewing can prevent a reader from generating the recorded action. opened measures this action for any assigned variant; openedesteem measures it only for recipients assigned one of the two recognition-message variants. Message assignment and the recorded opening action are therefore different fields. The RSVP outcome intended records an Evite "yes," rather than attendance. Event attendance was recorded separately through raffle-ticket collection and identifying information. An online survey sent one week after the event collected self-reported attendance, motivations, information sources, and background characteristics. Survey measures are observed only for respondents and are distinct from the assignment, RSVP, opening-log, and attendance records. The supplied CSV has 3,855 rows, but 208 have no assignment or behavioral data and contain only the fiveyears field set to zero; these are not additional documented experimental participants. The 3,647 rows with assignment data are the records described above.

   file ed2268d2501c0a6ac20dbc95f11fa8bbf7f6bb2bcb0333889d8b2ffea1746282 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file ed2268d2501c0a6ac20dbc95f11fa8bbf7f6bb2bcb0333889d8b2ffea1746282 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["intended","openedesteem","esteem"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["intended","openedesteem","esteem"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_iv · select {"columns":["intended","openedesteem","esteem"]}

   3855 → 3855 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 69fad3d84127 → f22a054c4fda
3. 2Transformação
   ref_iv · dropna {"columns":["intended","openedesteem","esteem"]}

   3855 → 3647 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: f22a054c4fda → 2165cd95e949
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_a10ef57creferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   2SLS by matrices with sigma2 = u'u/(n - k)

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "dataset": "ref_iv",
       "endog": [
         "openedesteem"
       ],
       "exog": [],
       "instruments": [
         "esteem"
       ],
       "se": "classical",
       "y": "intended"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_f94f4bfadecidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: 2SLS by matrices with sigma2 = u'u/(n - k)

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": null,
     "dataset": "ref_iv",
     "endog": [
       "openedesteem"
     ],
     "exog": [],
     "instruments": [
       "esteem"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "classical",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "intended"
   }

   Figuras call_f94f4bfa

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.openedesteem 2SLS effect of openedesteem on intended	0,314876	0.3148760792782876	0,09504850.0950484621783033	0,128523 – 0,50123

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.openedesteem = 103,76103.76039616279571
   • partial_r2.openedesteem = 0,02767860.027678588439262186
   • weak_instrument = false
   • n_obs = 3.6473647
   • se_type = "classical"
   • n_clusters = —

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.047289167209983204,
         "ci_low": 0.023376403866433554,
         "coef": 0.03533278553820838,
         "p": 7.460187212424098e-9,
         "se": 0.006098281158619287,
         "t": 5.793892511543053,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.5012295224141152,
         "ci_low": 0.12852263614245996,
         "coef": 0.3148760792782876,
         "p": 0.000932697837713134,
         "se": 0.0950484621783033,
         "t": 3.312795094860191,
         "term": "openedesteem"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.09372959267235541,
         "ci_low": 0.06347205341817956,
         "coef": 0.07860082304526748,
         "endog": "openedesteem",
         "instrument": "esteem",
         "p": 4.779177583936659e-24,
         "se": 0.007716338713722817,
         "t": 10.186284708508579
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.03999481397241691,
         "ci_low": 0.009504224004663615,
         "coef": 0.02474951898854026,
         "instrument": "esteem",
         "p": 0.001470335578968131,
         "se": 0.0077757717769449085,
         "t": 3.1829019290306793
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ref_iv 2165cd95e949189b75fc0d4a1a3a96cde6fd4e6e2cf07d93e1e25be34c71c5f1

   sha256 do resultado

   c93a0964d802d4fbcf7e3091ded4ead862e6ba3ef846cde5fe1f11b3acd4cdf6

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
6. 5Turno do modelo
   call_aaf84a10referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.openedesteem = 0,3149. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_f94f4bfa:coef.openedesteem"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
7. 6Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   0,3149

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
8. 7Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.openedesteem = 0,3149. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_f94f4bfa:coef.openedesteem · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_f94f4bfa:coef.openedesteem = 0,3148760.3148760792782876 (se 0,09504850.0950484621783033)
9. 8Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
10. 9Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória0.3148760793 in [0.1285810934, 0.5011710651]?
11. 10Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.3148760793 vs 0.314876079278295
12. 11Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada0.09504846218 vs 0.09504846217830387

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

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