Tarefa crb_papers.q080

Veredito

Pergunta feita ao analista

What is the local causal effect of a higher average polling-station size on municipalities' counts of citizens' reports of vote buying? Report the local average effect for municipalities whose mean station size is shifted by exogenous institution-determined changes in the number of stations, controlling for municipal population and potential electorate and clustering standard errors by municipality.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

Verificações

Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

Trajetória

Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

1. 0Início

   What is the local causal effect of a higher average polling-station size on municipalities' counts of citizens' reports of vote buying? Report the local average effect for municipalities whose mean station size is shifted by exogenous institution-determined changes in the number of stations, controlling for municipal population and potential electorate and clustering standard errors by municipality.

   ds_0050 (agent)

   | Variable Name | Description | |----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | muni_code | Municipality numeric identifier (unique code for each municipality). | | year | Calendar year / election year of the observation. | | departamento | Department (first-level administrative division) name or code. | | municipio | Municipality name. | | sum_vb | Total count / aggregate of reported vote-buying incidents (municipality-year) (aggregate measure). | | e_vote_buying | Citizens' reports of vote-buying incidents filed in regional offices of the Attorney General (count).| | e_neg_t_buying | Citizens' reports of turnout-suppression / negative-turnout incidents (municipality-year count). | | neg_t_buying_moe | MOE monitors' reports of turnout suppression (municipality-year count). | | pob_mesa | Number of registered voters per polling station (polling-place size, raw). | | lpob_mesa | Natural log of pob_mesa (logged registered voters per polling station). | | m_pob_mesa | Mean registered voters per polling station in the municipality (municipality average). | | lm_pob_mesa | Natural log of m_pob_mesa (logged mean polling-place size). | | z_pob_mesa_f | Average polling-station size calculated by dividing the potential electorate by the number of stations implied by the election-year voter-cap rule. This is a rule-based value, distinct from the observed average m_pob_mesa. | | lz_pob_mesa_f | Natural log of z_pob_mesa_f (logged rule-predicted size). | | lown_resources | Log of municipality own resources (local revenue; logged local fiscal resources). | | larmed_actor | Lagged indicator for presence of nonstate armed actors in the municipality (e.g., guerrillas/paramilitaries). | | margin_index2 | Index measuring electoral competitiveness / margin (competitiveness indicator). | | nbi_i | Unsatisfied Basic Needs (NBI) poverty index (possibly standardized / imputed). | | nbi | Unsatisfied Basic Needs (NBI) raw measure (poverty indicator). | | lnbi_i | Natural log of nbi_i (logged poverty index variant). | | llnbi_i | Transformed / double-log version of the NBI index (log of log or alternative transform). | | lsize | Logged version of a polling-station size measure (log of size). | | lpotencial | Natural log of 'potencial' (logged measure of potential electorate or voting potential). | | potencial_cu | Cubed transformation of 'potencial' (potencial^3). | | potencial_sq | Squared transformation of 'potencial' (potencial^2). | | trend_f | Time trend or election-wave variable (numeric trend / period indicator). | | Population20 | Population aged 20 or older (used to construct per–polling‑station measures). | | lroyalties2_d_pc | Log of royalties (natural-resource transfers) per capita (logged royalties per person). | | local_e | Indicator for local/regional election year (binary flag). | | ingresos_totales | Total municipal revenues / total income (nominal value). | | own_resources_p | Share (proportion) of municipal revenue coming from own sources (self-generated revenue). | | revenue_current_p | Share (percent) of current revenue in total municipal revenue. | | tax_revenue_p | Share (percent) of revenue coming from taxes. | | population | Total municipal population (raw count). | | depto_code | Department code (numeric identifier for department). | | pot_mesa_mean | Mean of 'potential per mesa' (average potential electorate per polling station). | | potencial | Measure of potential electorate / voting potential (raw value used in controls). | | mesas | Number of polling stations ("mesas") in the municipality. | | pot_mesa_med | Median potential per mesa in the municipality. | | lpopulation | Natural log of population (logged municipal population). | | lpot_mesa_med | Natural log of pot_mesa_med (logged median potential per mesa). | | lpot_mesa_mean | Natural log of pot_mesa_mean (logged mean potential per mesa). | | lvoter_mesa | Natural log of voter_mesa (logged number of actual voters per mesa / turnout per mesa). | | voter_mesa | Number of actual voters per mesa (turnout per polling station). | | armed_actor | Indicator for presence of nonstate armed actors (guerrillas/paramilitaries) in the municipality. | | size2 | Alternative polling-station size measure (variant / secondary definition of size). | | lsize2 | Natural log of size2 (logged alternative size). | | size | Polling-station size (alternative / additional size metric). | | le_parties_av | Logged average of party-related measure (e.g., logged average number of parties or lists). | | closeness_CG | Measure of electoral closeness (e.g., closeness of congressional/general contest). | | l4margin_index2 | Four-period lag (or 4-election lag) of margin_index2 (lagged competitiveness measure). | | lcoca_area | Log of area under coca cultivation (proxy for illicit-crop presence / local illicit activity). | | l4lsize | Four-period lag of lsize (lagged log-size of polling stations). | | l4lpob_mesa | Four-period lag of lpob_mesa (lagged logged registered voters per polling station). | | pob_mesa_q | Polling-station size quartile (categorical indicator for pob_mesa quartiles). | | discont_f | Retained indicator for inclusion in a near-threshold subset of municipalities around the electorate levels at which the voter-cap rule adds a polling station; 1 denotes inclusion and 0 exclusion. | | e_manipulating_results | Citizens' reports of manipulated election results / result tampering (municipality-year count). | | moving_votes_moe | MOE monitors' reports of votes being moved or misallocated between stations (count). | | vote_buying_moe | MOE monitors' reports of vote-buying incidents (municipality-year count). | | manipulating_results_moe | MOE monitors' reports of manipulated results (municipality-year count). | | ltrend_f | Logged / transformed version of trend_f (transformed time trend variable). | | VB_pc | Vote-buying reports per capita (vote-buying incidents scaled by population). | | monitor_MOE | Indicator for presence of MOE domestic election monitors in the municipality (binary). | | lpot_mesa | Natural log of pot_mesa (logged potential per polling station). | | pot_mesa | Potential electorate per mesa (potential votes / potential voters per polling station). | | sample | Indicator for inclusion in the analytical sample (binary flag). | Data Description: This is a municipality‑year panel assembled for Colombian elections in the mid‑2000s to early‑2010s (covering multiple general and regional election cycles). The file merges administrative incident records (citizen reports filed with regional offices of the Attorney General), incident logs collected by the domestic observer Misión de Observación Electoral (MOE), official polling‑station result files from the National Registrar (used to derive polling‑station size and rule‑based size measures), municipal demographic and fiscal indicators from administrative sources, and survey‑based individual measures where available (LAPOP). Variables include identifiers (department and municipality), election‑year indicators, several alternative and transformed measures of polling‑station and electorate size, presence/lagged indicators for nonstate armed actors and monitors, municipal socioeconomic controls (population, revenue and poverty measures), and multiple municipality‑level aggregates of reported electoral irregularities. The released extract contains 4,352 municipality-year observations from elections in 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2011. The National Registrar sets voter-cap rules, and registered voters within a precinct are allocated to stations alphabetically. In the supplied construction, the cap is 400 in 2006 and 2007, 500 in 2010, and 350 in 2011. For potential electorate V and cap C, z_pob_mesa_f is V divided by (floor((V−1)/C)+1). Crossing a multiple of the cap adds a predicted station and lowers the predicted average size. Actual station arrangements can differ because of geography and special voting locations. The near-threshold subset flag is retained as supplied; it is separate from the full-file sample flag.

   file 5074479809b19d8b0940810ad65624efcd6d2593a1768c4c44406560c5ae6d69 · frame —

   ref_iv (reference)

   file 5074479809b19d8b0940810ad65624efcd6d2593a1768c4c44406560c5ae6d69 · frame —

   1. select {"columns":["e_vote_buying","lm_pob_mesa","lpopulation","lpotencial","lz_pob_mesa_f","muni_code"]}
   2. dropna {"columns":["e_vote_buying","lm_pob_mesa","lpopulation","lpotencial","lz_pob_mesa_f","muni_code"]}
2. 1Transformação
   ref_iv · select {"columns":["e_vote_buying","lm_pob_mesa","lpopulation","lpotencial","lz_pob_mesa_f","muni_code"]}

   4352 → 4352 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 40a0ce2605ca → 98d485bbb714
3. 2Transformação
   ref_iv · dropna {"columns":["e_vote_buying","lm_pob_mesa","lpopulation","lpotencial","lz_pob_mesa_f","muni_code"]}

   4352 → 4352 linhas

   Frame antes → depois: 98d485bbb714 → 98d485bbb714
4. 3Turno do modelo
   call_50e5330ereferenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Texto visível

   IV2SLS(y, [Intercept, lpopulation, lpotencial], lm_pob_mesa, lz_pob_mesa_f).fit(cov_type='clustered', clusters=muni_code)

   Chamadas pedidas

   • infer.iv_2sls

     {
       "cluster": "muni_code",
       "dataset": "ref_iv",
       "endog": [
         "lm_pob_mesa"
       ],
       "exog": [
         "lpopulation",
         "lpotencial"
       ],
       "instruments": [
         "lz_pob_mesa_f"
       ],
       "y": "e_vote_buying"
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
5. 4Ferramenta
   infer.iv_2slsv0.1.0call_582c0e22decidido pelo modeloreexecutável

   Motivo: IV2SLS(y, [Intercept, lpopulation, lpotencial], lm_pob_mesa, lz_pob_mesa_f).fit(cov_type='clustered', clusters=muni_code)

   Argumentos

   {
     "cluster": "muni_code",
     "dataset": "ref_iv",
     "endog": [
       "lm_pob_mesa"
     ],
     "exog": [
       "lpopulation",
       "lpotencial"
     ],
     "instruments": [
       "lz_pob_mesa_f"
     ],
     "level": 0.95,
     "se": "HC1",
     "subset": null,
     "y": "e_vote_buying"
   }

   Figuras call_582c0e22

   Chave	Valor	Valor bruto	Erro-padrão	IC
   coef.lm_pob_mesa 2SLS effect of lm_pob_mesa on e_vote_buying	-0,983511	-0.9835113358719844	0,1423920.14239177652238938	-1,2629 – -0,70412

   Diagnósticos

   • first_stage_F.lm_pob_mesa = 8.598,338598.326402210985
   • partial_r2.lm_pob_mesa = 0,4167190.41671930271655977
   • weak_instrument = false
   • n_obs = 4.3524352
   • se_type = "cluster"
   • n_clusters = 1.0981098

   Tabelas (3)

   {
     "coefficients": [
       {
         "ci_high": 4.506129634765411,
         "ci_low": 2.052064142440678,
         "coef": 3.2790968886030445,
         "p": 1.8889105977161856e-7,
         "se": 0.6253578874327064,
         "t": 5.243552459320187,
         "term": "Intercept"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.1273439048996614,
         "ci_low": -0.3450648694935662,
         "coef": -0.2362043871966138,
         "p": 0.000022450535313337847,
         "se": 0.05548080232336315,
         "t": -4.257407559103509,
         "term": "lpopulation"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": 0.7227308224818391,
         "ci_low": 0.3625123512961167,
         "coef": 0.5426215868889779,
         "p": 4.524942702702201e-9,
         "se": 0.09179276708770671,
         "t": 5.911376289272448,
         "term": "lpotencial"
       },
       {
         "ci_high": -0.7041203245992487,
         "ci_low": -1.26290234714472,
         "coef": -0.9835113358719844,
         "p": 8.365083817639631e-12,
         "se": 0.14239177652238938,
         "t": -6.9070796073489475,
         "term": "lm_pob_mesa"
       }
     ],
     "first_stage": [
       {
         "ci_high": 0.8125697349964491,
         "ci_low": 0.7788939832243948,
         "coef": 0.795731859110422,
         "endog": "lm_pob_mesa",
         "instrument": "lz_pob_mesa_f",
         "p": 0,
         "se": 0.008581432342268313,
         "t": 92.72716108137348
       }
     ],
     "reduced_form": [
       {
         "ci_high": -0.5620107105541738,
         "ci_low": -1.0032118969450372,
         "coef": -0.7826113037496055,
         "instrument": "lz_pob_mesa_f",
         "p": 5.807979274655961e-12,
         "se": 0.11242920888505958,
         "t": -6.9609251146621265
       }
     ]
   }

   Digests dos dados

   ref_iv 98d485bbb714d22b22ebc635f55a26f316c7d307ad083d1a904b3ba362f172f0

   sha256 do resultado

   79f4e5a57c777986f43c616b8d79992ddf2b0f1e951cf4703538e8f9dae99e77

   Resultado mostrado ao modelo
6. 5Turno do modelo
   call_18386581referenceFim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache

   Chamadas pedidas

   • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)

     {
       "answer": "Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.lm_pob_mesa = -0,9835. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.",
       "caveats": [],
       "figure_refs": [
         "call_582c0e22:coef.lm_pob_mesa"
       ]
     }

   Mensagens (formato neutro)Instruções do sistemaFerramentas oferecidas
7. 6Guarda
   resposta aceita

   Números encontrados

   -0,9835

   Sem lastro

   —

   Não citados

   —

   1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
8. 7Resposta

   Estimativa (infer.iv_2sls): coef.lm_pob_mesa = -0,9835. Reference path transcribed from the item's own estimation script.

   Figuras citadas: call_582c0e22:coef.lm_pob_mesa · Parada: answered

   Figura da resposta: call_582c0e22:coef.lm_pob_mesa = -0,983511-0.9835113358719844 (se 0,1423920.14239177652238938)
9. 8Pontuação
   #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
10. 9Pontuação
    #1figura da resposta próximapassouobrigatória-0.9835113359 in [-1.262375912, -0.7046467599]?
11. 10Pontuação
    #2figura da resposta próximapassouregistrada-0.9835113359 vs -0.9835113358726062
12. 11Pontuação
    #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistrada0.1423917765 vs 0.14227784489218315

Épocas × verificações

Tentativas

Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

• época 1, tentativa 1passoupontuada(exibindo)

Downloads desta tarefa