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Tarefa crb_papers.q012

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, nenhuma estimativa citada.
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Pergunta feita ao analista

From 2011 to 2012, how did factories that became compliant (per the sourcing agent's annual compliance indicator) change in logged annual order value (natural log of estimated annual order value in constant 2012 USD) relative to factories that remained noncompliant over the same period?

Resposta

Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q012.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 12 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['12'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 12: effect 0.336392, standard_error 0.125918
Valor como publicado
0.33639171169653814
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.12591763131474554
Valor
0,3363920.33639171169653814 (se 0,1259180.12591763131474554)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: 0,3363920.33639171169653814 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.2591763131474552e-7
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,1259180.12591763131474554 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.2591763131474552e-7

crb_papers.q012.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 12
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Distelhorst_Locke_2018/question_1/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 1406 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
7608c0c292925be801277109ba01057511edef936a5a0a40124a65afa0d140f0 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Distelhorst_Locke_2018/question_1/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    obrigatóriafalhou[0.08959315431963688,0.5831902690734394]—interval · [0.08959315431963688, 0.5831902690734394]——
    2figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,3363920.33639171169653814—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.2591763131474552e-7crb_papers.q012.gold—
    3figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,1259180.12591763131474554—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 1.2591763131474552e-7crb_papers.q012.gold—

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsO agente não fez uma chamada de estimação que a resposta cite.

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      From 2011 to 2012, how did factories that became compliant (per the sourcing agent's annual compliance indicator) change in logged annual order value (natural log of estimated annual order value in constant 2012 USD) relative to factories that remained noncompliant over the same period?

      ds_0007 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | (index) | Sequential row number from the CSV export; has no substantive meaning. | | fcode | Anonymous manufacturing establishment identifier. Stable across years within this file but masked to prevent reidentification or linkage to external sources. | | year | Calendar year of record (2009–2012). Reflects the period over which audits, orders, and operational performance were summarized. | | compyr | Annual indicator for whether the establishment was deemed compliant with the sourcing agent’s code of conduct in that year (1 = compliant, 0 = not compliant). Compliance is determined from social and environmental audits; values may be missing in years without an audit. | | gradeyr | Audit grade for the year mapped to a numeric scale (A = 3, B = 2, C = 1, D = 0). Grades summarize findings from factory audits that assess labor, health and safety, environmental, and legal practices. May be blank in years without an audit. | | lestspend_dall | Natural log of the estimated total value of customer orders routed through the sourcing agent to the factory in that calendar year, expressed in thousands of constant 2012 USD. Underlying nominal values were originally reported in annual bins; midpoints were used and deflated to 2012 dollars before logging. | | inspyr | Share of quality inspections passed during the year (0–1), calculated from the agent’s inspection records for orders it handled at the factory. Represents the fraction of checks that met specified quality criteria. | | ontimeyr | On-time delivery rate during the year (0–1), computed from order-tracking data for shipments coordinated by the agent, where “on time” indicates delivery on or before the scheduled date. | | factoryobs_perf | Count of underlying observations used to compute the year’s performance rates (e.g., number of inspections or orders contributing to inspyr and ontimeyr). Larger values imply more stable rate estimates. | | factorytt | Panel time index for convenience in longitudinal analyses (1 = 2009, 2 = 2010, 3 = 2011, 4 = 2012). | Dataset Context: This panel assembles administrative records from a multinational sourcing intermediary that connects buyers—primarily retailers and brand owners in advanced economies—with manufacturing suppliers across 36 countries. The intermediary maintains a supply-chain responsibility program with a written code of conduct covering labor conditions, environmental practices, health and safety, and compliance with local law. Factories are periodically audited by trained assessors, typically during one- to two-day site visits that review documents, conduct walkthroughs, and interview personnel. Audits produce letter grades (A–D), with the intermediary treating A/B as meeting its standard and C/D as not meeting it. For each calendar year, the data retain a factory’s grade and a binary indicator derived from these audits; some factories are visited multiple times in a year, while others may go a year without a recorded audit. The same intermediary aggregates commercial activity by factory and year from its order-management systems. Because customers provided annual purchasing in value bands, the dataset converts those bands to midpoints, deflates them to constant 2012 U.S. dollars using import price indices for consumer goods, and applies a natural log transformation. Operational performance metrics—on-time delivery and quality inspection pass rates—are calculated from order- and shipment-level tracking for business transacted through the agent; these rates are only observed in years when the intermediary coordinated orders at the factory, and their precision varies with the number of underlying events. Coverage spans 2009–2012 and a mix of product categories with a substantial share of apparel. Factory identities and any corporate names were anonymized under a data access agreement. Users should note common features of this type of administrative data: audit results reflect conditions at the time of inspection rather than continuous monitoring; performance rates pertain to the subset of a factory’s portfolio handled by the intermediary; and annual purchasing values are estimates derived from reported bins rather than exact ledgers. Despite these limits, the dataset offers rare, harmonized, multi-country visibility into auditing outcomes, order flows, and supplier performance within global manufacturing supply chains during the early 2010s.

      file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —
      ref_panel (reference)
      file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
      2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
      3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
      4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
      5. filter {"query":"year in [2011, 2012]"}
      6. merge {"how":"left","on":["fcode"],"with":"ref_years"}
      7. merge {"how":"left","on":["fcode"],"with":"ref_wpre"}
      8. merge {"how":"left","on":["fcode"],"with":"ref_wpost"}
      9. filter {"query":"nyears == 2 and w2011 == 0 and (w2012 == 1 or w2012 == 0)"}
      10. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"w2012","value":1},"name":"treat","op":"indicator"}
      11. derive {"args":{"cmp":"eq","column":"year","value":2012},"name":"post","op":"indicator"}
      12. derive {"args":{"columns":["treat","post"]},"name":"treat_post","op":"interaction"}
      ref_wpost (reference)
      file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
      2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
      3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
      4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
      5. filter {"query":"year == 2012"}
      6. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"compyr","fn":"mean","name":"w2012"}],"by":["fcode"]}
      ref_wpre (reference)
      file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
      2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
      3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
      4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
      5. filter {"query":"year == 2011"}
      6. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"compyr","fn":"mean","name":"w2011"}],"by":["fcode"]}
      ref_years (reference)
      file 4bfe0955b959c2258c32c26060e79131a2397e9c8d2e7a2fb405e9d3d14ebb4e · frame —
      1. select {"columns":["fcode","year","compyr","lestspend_dall"]}
      2. derive {"args":{"cmp":"gt","column":"compyr","value":0},"name":"compyr","op":"indicator"}
      3. derive {"args":{"column":"compyr","default":0,"keep_unmapped":false,"mapping":[{"source":1,"target":1}]},"name":"compyr","op":"map"}
      4. dropna {"columns":["fcode","year","lestspend_dall"]}
      5. filter {"query":"year in [2011, 2012]"}
      6. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"lestspend_dall","fn":"count","name":"n"}],"by":["fcode","year"]}
      7. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"n","fn":"count","name":"nyears"}],"by":["fcode"]}
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_62451fd8rules-1Fim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": []
        }
    3. 2Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      —
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    4. 3Resposta

      Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

      Figuras citadas: — · Parada: answered
    5. 4Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    6. 5Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatóriano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    7. 6Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    8. 7Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

    Épocas × verificações

    Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
    #0123
    Época 1passoufalhoufalhoufalhou

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