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Tarefa crb_papers.q021

crb_papersagentT2publicépoca 1, tentativa 1Execução: 20261015T170957Z-suite-crb_papers-baseline-dae0c1

Veredito

falhouDecidida pela verificação 1: figura da resposta próxima, nenhuma estimativa citada.
no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

Pergunta feita ao analista

Was there an increase in the proportion of spending on civil administration and tax collection in treasuries dominated by mining after the 1777 Mining Tribunal, relative to treasuries without mining dominance?

Resposta

Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

Valores esperados e de onde vêm

crb_papers.q021.gold

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark, causal_queries.json, index 21 (revision edd0fe1c1d1c)
Tipo
benchmark_gold
Localização
causal_queries.json['21'].effect and .standard_error
Trecho
index 21: effect 0.0466946, standard_error 0.042957
Valor como publicado
0.04669461453584012
Erro-padrão como publicado
0.0429570166820007
Valor
0,04669460.04669461453584012 (se 0,0429570.0429570166820007)
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · Read from the catalog at the pinned revision by scripts/freeze_crb_papers.py; the catalog states the value its estimation script prints.
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/causal_queries.json
Licença
MIT
  • #2 figura da resposta próxima: 0,04669460.04669461453584012 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.29570166820007e-8
  • #3 figura da resposta próxima: 0,0429570.0429570166820007 · relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.29570166820007e-8

crb_papers.q021.script

Fonte
CausalReasoningBenchmark reference estimation script for index 21
Tipo
software
Localização
solutions/research_papers/DiD/Garfias_2019/question_2/estimation.py
Valor
—
Conferido por
arquivo do benchmark · sha256 of the script's 1441 bytes at the pinned revision; the reference path of the item is a transcription of this script into typed transforms and tool calls (never executed here).
Implementação
independente da ferramenta
sha256 da cópia lida
8ae5cde2d97db4ee81b77c7b934448410989a510f4e53ddfaa32367e8fd55f88 (identifica a cópia lida, não um arquivo canônico)
Endereço
https://huggingface.co/datasets/syrgkanislab/CausalReasoningBenchmark/resolve/edd0fe1c1d1c5c0a4f0e3e67a50481ac679fb888/solutions/research_papers/DiD/Garfias_2019/question_2/estimation.py
Licença
MIT

    Verificações

    Cada verificação, o que esperava, o que observou e a chamada que leu
    #VerificaçãoObrigatóriaResultadoEsperadoObservadoTolerânciaFonteChamada
    0resposta com lastro
    every number backed
    obrigatóriapassou—[]———
    1figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    obrigatóriafalhou[-0.037501138160881256,0.13089036723256148]—interval · [-0.037501138160881256, 0.13089036723256148]——
    2figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,04669460.04669461453584012—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.29570166820007e-8crb_papers.q021.gold—
    3figura da resposta próxima
    no answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    registradafalhou0,0429570.0429570166820007—relativa 0.000001 · absoluta 4.29570166820007e-8crb_papers.q021.gold—

    Caminho de referência e caminho do agente

    A chamada de referência ao lado da chamada que deu a resposta, argumento por argumento.

    caminho de referência do item · benchmark_script

    Referência: infer.olsO agente não fez uma chamada de estimação que a resposta cite.

    Pendências do caminho de referência: needs_op:cluster_correction_counting_collinear_columns

    Trajetória

    Cada evento na ordem em que aconteceu: turnos do modelo, chamadas de ferramentas, guardas, transformações e pontuação.

    1. 0Início

      Was there an increase in the proportion of spending on civil administration and tax collection in treasuries dominated by mining after the 1777 Mining Tribunal, relative to treasuries without mining dominance?

      ds_0011 (agent)

      | Variable Name | Description | | --- | --- | | cajacode | Two-letter identifier of the regional Royal Treasury (Caja Real) in New Spain. Each code maps to a specific treasury jurisdiction (e.g., a port city or mining district). | | yearfin | Fiscal year associated with the account “closing” for that treasury. Values correspond to the year when the annual account was finalized and audited. | | near_tabasco | Indicator = 1 for treasury-years after a nearby Royal Treasury at Tabasco began operating, for treasuries whose jurisdictions were plausibly affected; 0 otherwise. Stays 1 thereafter. | | near_zimapan | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Zimapán treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Captures administrative geography changes from the creation of that caja. | | near_bolanos | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Bolaños treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Flags potential shifts in a pre-existing treasury’s catchment area. | | near_rosario | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Rosario treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_carmen | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Carmen treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_arispe | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Arizpe (Arispe) treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_chihuahua | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Chihuahua treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_saltillo | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Saltillo treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_michoacan | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Michoacán treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_puebla | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Puebla treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | near_oaxaca | Indicator = 1 for years after a nearby Oaxaca treasury opened; 0 otherwise. Persistent post-opening flag. | | prRec | Share of total expenditures devoted to civil administration and revenue collection in a treasury-year (0–1). Includes salaries for fiscal/judicial officials and collection costs (e.g., transport, supplies). Excludes military spending. Using a share allows comparability across treasuries of different sizes. | | tribunalm | Indicator of the Mining Tribunal’s presence for the treasury-year. Equals 1 from 1777 onward for mining jurisdictions served by the mining corporation and 0 otherwise. The Tribunal, established in the late 1770s, organized mining districts via deputations and had administrative, judicial, and credit-related functions for the sector. | | inilogtotal_c | Treasury-specific baseline size proxy: natural log of the treasury’s initial total revenue in nominal pesos (baseline is typically 1714 or the first observed year for newer treasuries). Constant within treasury over time. | Dataset Context: This dataset is a treasury-year panel built from official colonial fiscal accounts compiled by regional Royal Treasuries (cajas reales) in New Spain and audited centrally in Mexico City. Each treasury recorded gross revenue and detailed expenditures annually; local obligations were paid first and any surplus was remitted to the central treasury. The accounting aggregates were standardized into consistent categories to facilitate comparison across space and time. The panel primarily covers the Bourbon era, especially 1758–1786, a period marked by administrative centralization, reorganization of revenue services, and the gradual transition in many places from tax farming to direct collection (notably for sales taxes and customs). Royal initiatives expanded customs house networks, professionalized local tax administration, and clarified the division of responsibilities among regional treasuries and the central fiscal tribunal. Currency values are nominal pesos de ocho; figures are not price-adjusted, consistent with the historical accounts. Two features of the administrative landscape are encoded for time variation. First, the presence of the Mining Tribunal beginning in 1777, which established mining deputations and provided sectoral governance, adjudication of mining disputes, and credit intermediation. Second, a set of “near_” indicators mark years after new neighboring treasuries were created, signaling possible redrawings of fiscal catchment areas as jurisdictions were split or reassigned. The expenditure share devoted to civil administration and collection reflects the intensity of local state apparatus—staffing of fiscal and judicial officers and the operational resources needed to assess and collect revenues. Revenue baselines (logged initial totals) provide a stable proxy for the underlying scale of each treasury’s operations at the start of observation. Together, these variables offer a consistent view of regional fiscal administration during a period of wide-ranging institutional change in late colonial Mexico.

      file 382e29d87263d69f6346ae605d96a5bff393241e83ade52732d4a46efcb5ec2c · frame —
      ref_panel (reference)
      file 382e29d87263d69f6346ae605d96a5bff393241e83ade52732d4a46efcb5ec2c · frame —
      1. dropna {"columns":["prRec","tribunalm","cajacode","yearfin"]}
      2. merge {"how":"inner","on":["cajacode"],"with":"ref_treated"}
      3. filter {"query":"yearfin in [1765, 1766, 1767, 1768, 1769, 1770, 1771, 1772, 1773, 1774, 1775, 1776, 1778, 1779, 1780, 1781]"}
      4. derive {"args":{"cmp":"in","column":"yearfin","value":[1778,1779,1780,1781]},"name":"post_q","op":"indicator"}
      5. derive {"args":{"columns":["treated_unit","post_q"]},"name":"did","op":"interaction"}
      ref_treated (reference)
      file 382e29d87263d69f6346ae605d96a5bff393241e83ade52732d4a46efcb5ec2c · frame —
      1. dropna {"columns":["prRec","tribunalm","cajacode","yearfin"]}
      2. collapse {"aggs":[{"column":"tribunalm","fn":"max","name":"treated_unit"}],"by":["cajacode"]}
    2. 1Turno do modelo
      call_46e4be58rules-1Fim: tool_use0 ms0 de entrada · 0 de saída · 0 de raciocínio · 0 em cache
      Chamadas pedidas
      • submit_answer (meta-ferramenta)
        {
          "answer": "Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.",
          "caveats": [],
          "figure_refs": []
        }
    3. 2Guarda
      resposta aceita
      Números encontrados
      —
      Sem lastro
      —
      Não citados
      —
      1 nova(s) tentativa(s) restante(s)
    4. 3Resposta

      Pelas regras deste roteador não identifiquei um desenho que responda à pergunta; nenhuma estimativa foi feita.

      Figuras citadas: — · Parada: answered
    5. 4Pontuação
      #0resposta com lastropassouobrigatóriaevery number backed
    6. 5Pontuação
      #1figura da resposta próximafalhouobrigatóriano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    7. 6Pontuação
      #2figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call
    8. 7Pontuação
      #3figura da resposta próximafalhouregistradano answer figure: the answer cites no effect of an estimator call

    Épocas × verificações

    Resultado de cada verificação em cada época pontuada
    #0123
    Época 1passoufalhoufalhoufalhou

    Tentativas

    Cada tentativa é seu próprio arquivo e é publicada; só a última de cada época é pontuada.

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